In a different post entitled Odds for the Fire Bet, Dice Pilot opined about the Fire Bet for controlled shooters, "It would be an interesting mathematical problem to find out how the odds and probabilities change with an increase in a shooters’ skill level. What would the results be with a SRR of 7, 8, 9, 10 or 12 and also changing the dice set to target the point numbers? I believe Smart Craps will recommend this bet if you pass all three Protests."
I have no idea what the results would be for various skill levels. Perhaps Stickman could simulate this in Smart Craps.
I do know there are better bets available if you want to look at bets that have a high payoff.
It seems the attraction of the Fire Bet is that you can get a 999 to 1 payoff. So for a "measly" $1 it is possible to walk away with $1,000 in ones pocket. I put measly in quotes because over time those dollars add up to some real money. If you don’t track carefully how you stand with your Fire Bet wagers there is a good chance this could be costing you a lot more than you imagine.
Having said that I did not like the idea of getting a 999 to 1 payoff on a wager that has greater than 6,000 to 1 odds for a random shooter. I realize the bet also pays off if you get only 4 or 5 different points made. But it seems to me most folks are not really making this bet for the $24 or $249 payoff. They all dream about walking away with either $1,000 or $5,000 (for the $5 wager). So I did some thinking about this last night and came up with a potential solution for all you gamblers out there who like the Fire Bet for the reasons I have stated above. I made up a wager that is comparable to the Fire Bet without as bad a payout in relation to the true odds for the wager. I have dubbed this wager the "Big Enchilada".
What would you think about a wager that has better than 6,000 to 1 odds for a random shooter and pays out over $4,000 for a $1 bet?!!! Furthermore we have mathematical proof from Smart Craps that if you ARE an elite shooter you will have a positive edge when making this bet. It is documented in Frank’s book Cutting Edge Craps.
Do I have your attention now?
OK. Listen carefully. This wager will only pay off 1 way. In other words it does not guarantee a pay off once you get part way there as the Fire Bet does with the 4 and 5 points made pay off. But there is a way to get a smaller pay off is that is what you wish. You must decide you want to take the winnings and run once you get part way to the Big Enchilada, the over $4,000 for a $1 wager. And I did not forget you high rollers who want to wager $5 on the Fire Bet for the jackpot $5,000 pay off. This wager will pay out over $16,000 instead of that paltry $5,000 AND you only have to wager $4 instead of $5 to get it. How about that, over $16,000 for a $4 wager!
Before I explain the Big Enchilada wager let me explain how you can bail out early and take a smaller win that is comparable to the 4 and 5 point win for the Fire Bet. Remember the odds vs. payout for these two bets:
Make 4 numbers in the fire bet and win $24 instead of $113.
Make 5 numbers in the fire bet and win $249 instead of $609.
In my Big Enchilada wager you can win $63 instead of $80.
In my Big Enchilada wager you can win $511 instead of $728.
If you don’t want to go for the Big Enchilada you can take a smaller profit and run. But in all cases you are getting a much better payout in relation to the true odds than you are with the Fire Bet.
Those of you who like puzzles and are good with math may want to stop here before reading any further to see if you can figure out the wager I am talking about. It is a regular wager that can be found on all craps tables and with the information I have given above you may be able to figure out the bet.
For those of you who are less curious I will explain the Big Enchilada in the next paragraph.
This bet has a better payout than the Fire Bet for the same or less money wagered. It still has a terrible house advantage for the random roller. But if you feel you want to gamble on a big payoff for a small wager it pays much closer to the true odds than the Fire Bet. I am talking about a parlay on the all day hard 4 or all day hard 10.
Here is the Big Enchilada wager. Bet $1 on the hard 4 or 10. Each time you hit the bet, parlay all of the winnings and your original bet. If you hit the bet 4 times in a row you will walk away with a total of $4,096 in your pocket. That is a profit of $4,095 over your original $1 wager. You will have been paid 4,095 to 1 for a wager that has true odds of 6,560 to 1 for a random roller.
Let us go thru this in detail so that everyone is clear on this wager. You want to make the Big Enchilada wager and decide you are going to do it on the hard 4. You wager $1 on the hard 4. After it hits the first time the dealer will pay you $7. You tell him to parlay your wager to $8. When it hits a second time the dealer will pay you $56. You still have your $8 up on the table and you tell him to parlay your bet again. This time it looks like $64. Now when you hit the hard 4 a third time you will be paid $448. Tell the dealer to parlay your bet again and he will add your $448 winning to your $64 wager for a $512 wager on the hard 4. Now when you hit the bet for the fourth time you get paid a whopping $3584. Take your bet down at this point and you walk away with the Big Enchilada of $4,096. That amounts to a $4,095 profit on your original $1 wager. The true odds of hitting that parlay 4 times are 6,560 to 1.
Remember I also said you could bail out early and take a smaller profit if that is more to your liking. Here is how that would work. You could take your profit after you hit the bet 2 or 3 times in a row. In other words when you hit the bet the first time you parlay your $7 winnings with your original $1 wager for an $8 wager on the hard 4. When it hits a second time you get paid $56 in winnings. You take your $8 wager down and walk away with $64, a $63 profit over your original $1 bet.
If you want to try for 3 hits, you parlay your $56 winnings with your $8 wager for a $64 total wager on the hard 4. When it hits a third time you get paid $448. If you take down your bet at this point you walk away with a total of $512, a $511 profit over your original $1 bet.
But for those who want the Big Enchilada you must parlay your $448 winning with your $64 wager after the third hit for a total $512 wager on the hard 4. When it hits you collect $3,584 plus your $512 wager and walk with the Big Enchilada, $4,096, a $4,095 profit over your $1 original wager!
I don’t want to leave out you high rollers out there. Most casinos will only pay out $15,000 maximum on any prop bet. A wager of $2,143 on the hard 4 or 10 should pay out $15,001 but it will only pay the $15,000 maximum at most casinos. If you were to wager $5 on the Big Enchilada the parlay after the third hit would be over the $2,143 amount. So you only have to start with a $4 wager to get a big payout. If you start with a $4 wager you will collect $1,792 after your third hit. By parlaying that with the $256 wager you had up you will be wagering a total of $2,048. After the fourth hit you will collect $14,336 plus your wager of $2,048 to walk away with the really really Big Enchilada of $16,384, a profit of $16,380 over your original $4 wager.
The odds of making 2 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 80.
The odds of making 3 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 728.
The odds of making 4 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 6,560.
The payout on making 2 hits in the Big Enchilada is 63 to 1.
The payout on making 3 hits in the Big Enchilada is 511 to 1.
The payout on making 4 hits in the Big Enchilada is 4,095 to 1.
What the casino pays and what a true payout would be when you bet $1 on the Big Enchilada.
Make 2 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $63 instead of $80.
Make 3 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $511 instead of $728.
Make 4 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $4,095 instead of $6,560.
Compare that to the Fire Bet.
Make 4 numbers in the fire bet and win $24 instead of $113.
Make 5 numbers in the fire bet and win $249 instead of $609.
Make 6 numbers in the fire bet and win $999 instead of $6,172.
What looks like the better bet to you?
So far I have only talked about the upside of the Big Enchilada. I would now like to turn to the down side.
I suspect many of you are saying I could not possibly go for that third parlay. I would be a nervous wreck if I had $512 on the hard 4 or 10 looking for a total $4,096 pay out. Some of you may not even be able to conceive of doing a parlay after your second hit much less after your third hit. You may be saying to yourself it would be impossible for you to control the dice if you had that much riding on the bet! You are afraid it would get into your head and it would affect your toss.
Well what do you think happens to you in the Fire Bet after you get up to 3, 4 and 5 points made. I will bet a lot of you are not able to perform 100% after making 3 points. Even fewer after 4 points and way less after 5 points. I am positive that anyone who gets up to the 4 or 5 point level starts to think about getting the next point. You start altering your set trying to establish the point(s) you have not made yet. Then if you are fortunate enough to establish that 5th or 6th point, nerves will play a part in your future performance. It takes a lot of practice and experience to be able to play that far above one’s comfort level and not have it impact one’s performance. The only way to gain the experience is to get there and try it. Think back to how nervous you were the first time you tried to control the dice under live conditions after learning the skill. That changed with practice and EXPERIENCE. You needed several sessions under live conditions to get over the nervousness and uneasy feeling that you did not have at home when practicing. If you don’t think you can handle the Big Enchilada because of the money that would be on the line, you probably cannot handle the Fire Bet either when you start getting close to the final payout.
In chapter 5 of Frank’s book, Cutting Edge Craps he goes into Some More Radical Betting Options. In that section on page 39 he has charts for the Hard 4 and 10. They cover what type of advantage a skilled player with differing levels of skill will have on this wager. If you feel you must make a wager that has a high payout you may want to consider the Big Enchilada instead of the Fire Bet. I know the payouts are better in relation to the true odds. If you qualify for the skill level needed to get an advantage over the Hard 4 or 10 according to the charts in Frank’s books this may be something you want to consider.
I have tried to give you some food for thought. Let me know what you think.
Replies:
Posted by: Skinny on January 11, 2012, 3:47 am
also there is no tax as the fire bet
Replies to this message
ACPA (Jan 14, 2011 8:01 pm)
ACPA – Jan 14, 2011 8:01 pm (1.1)
40 Roll Club, 60 Roll Club, 70 roll club, Registered for WCC
Replying to: MarkA1 (Jan 14, 2011 7:19 pm)
also there is no tax as the fire bet
Wrong about the no tax! All wins are suspose to be reported on your tax return!
Noah
Agame – Jan 14, 2011 8:29 pm (2.)
GTC Grad, Tunica 2010
Skinny,
As the website’s resident glutton and trip report junkie, I thank you much for the food for thought.
Enchiladas do sound better than Fire, and are much more delicious
It seems like the Enchilada takes fewer tosses to be complete, as throwing the hardway doesn’t automatically start a come-out cycle.
I might be a lot more nervous parlaying than I might be with converting a point. Knowing that over $400 that I can take with me are on the table would certainly mess my shot, focus, breathing and heart rate, whereas my passline and odds wouldn’t deviate from normal when trying to convert a point (for the Fire bet).
Like the Fire bet, The Enchilada is one of those rare occasions that demand a lot of skill and luck. I have been at a table where a CF’er made all 6 points…
I have also seen a CF’er throw five hard 6’s, the first three back to back… Now is that something I can do? No. Is that a bet I should be making, given its high house advantage?…
Maybe from time to time, ehehehhe
Finisher – Jan 14, 2011 8:52 pm (3.)
POD Graduate Oct. class 2011 LV.Member of winning team box numbers.
Skinny Well done I would never do it . I have never par lay any bet. When I rolled those 5 points on my last trip I did have a piggy back hard 4 which I hit once. Did not par lay it and lost it once but did have a winning come bet on the 4.During my roll the dealer said that he hoped the roller wasn’t getting tried and throw a little stronger. I then made SURE that I HIT THE BACK WALL. Which came out 3-1 winner. The next come out point was a 5 for the 5th fire and I rolled a few more numbers then rolled the 5 for win . But never did roll the 8 for a point so ended up 7 out on the 5 after est. it again for a point.
If you get nervous after making the 4th or 5th fire point you could LAY it.
O yes you should have seen the look the dealer gave me when I rolled that 3-1 and said that was a little stronger vary quietly.
What did you think about the 16.00 investment? That is at a 5.00 table with a 10.00 fire bet.
Good Rolling.
DB+W – Jan 14, 2011 10:01 pm (4.)
ACPA: Are we to believe that every time you win at the casino, and there are a number of your trip reports to back this up, you personally report all of those winning sessions and trips to the IRS either through an estimated quarterly tax payment or on your 1040 w/ a Schedule A?
[q=ACPA] Wrong about the no tax! All wins are suppose to be reported on your tax return!
Noah [/q]
[q=Skinny] I have no idea what the results would be for various skill levels [/q]
What is truly interesting about this comment regarding "highly skilled controllers" is the fact point conversions are NOT the primary goal of the "controller." If it were, each point would a a given set to be played immediately after establishing the point to be converted which would provide a sort of double "advantage" for the "controller" by making the PL/FO at MAX odds an incredible money-maker. The SRR at that juncture would be irrelevant and those Fire Bet odds would drop like a shot not to say anything about the HA dropping from "25%" to ????.
The basic question as posed above from Dice Pilot is truly meaningful and prophetic in that it goes to the heart of what you all seem to call "advantage" playing.
As far as the Hard 4 "enchilada," lets ask CIII exactly what set one should use and how many tosses will it take to produce that really big win.
I know you all love it when the pot is "stirred."
DB+W
Replies to this message
ACPA (Jan 15, 2011 4:24 am)
ACPA – Jan 15, 2011 4:24 am (4.1)
40 Roll Club, 60 Roll Club, 70 roll club, Registered for WCC
Replying to: DB+W (Jan 14, 2011 10:01 pm)
ACPA: Are we to believe that every time you win at the casino, and there are a number of…
DB+W,
You are partly right, Yes I report all of my gambling winning on my tax return even though I have never received a W-G from the casino.
However, I report the winnings on Page 1 of the form 1040 and I have usually only had to adjust my withholdings, not make estimated tax payments.
Schedule A is where you deduct your losses, up to the amount of your gains.
I recommend and anyone interesting read Tax Time Part one and Tax Time part two for a good discussion of what I do. And what I recommend everyone do.
I give some facts about how many people cheat on there returns.
Noah
[Last Editor]
T-Burg – Jan 14, 2011 11:50 pm (5.)
Primer Grad 10/24/09 Refreshed 10/10 Elite Video 3/11
Skinny, would you also place the 4 to protect against the 3-1 wiping out the parlay H-4?
Dice Pilot – Jan 15, 2011 12:33 am (6.)
GTC Assistant Instructor, WCC Team Champions 09, Dream Team Captain
Great post Skinny. How about playing both the Fire and the Big Enchilada? . Just kidding.
You are absolutely correct that after hitting 4 points with the fire bet, all of your focus and attention is now on making the 5th or 6th point. This is trouble for all of us.
I am thinking about the Quadruple Big Enchilada. Start off with a $1 on each of the hardways and parlay all with each hit.
That does it, I am going out for Mexican food tonight. I am ordering up the Enchiladas.
CIII – Jan 15, 2011 1:40 am (7.)
GTC Graduate Las Vegas, Oct 2006, Refresher Chicago, Sept 2011, Post of the Month 12/07, Post of Distinction, Post of the Month 8/11
Skinny asked:
"What looks like the better bet to you?"
The Fire Bet!
Why!
I have observed it often enough.
I have tossed it more than once.
I have won it more than once.
I have seen others hit it more than once.
I have seen a Don’t bettor hit it against himself while shooting the dice.
I have seen a Doey Don’t player, playing the Don’t hit it against himself.
I have not observed more than three Hardways back to back.
I have seen 4 back to back hits on the 12.
Seeing is believing!
CIII
CIII – Jan 15, 2011 3:27 am (8.)
GTC Graduate Las Vegas, Oct 2006, Refresher Chicago, Sept 2011, Post of the Month 12/07, Post of Distinction, Post of the Month 8/11
Another look at the way that shooters make the Fire Bet will raise the bar on the price you pay.
Many times it appears that it has become the norm to include the dealers in the Fire Bet, this can double the cost to the shooter.
CIII
ACPA – Jan 15, 2011 4:45 am (9.)
40 Roll Club, 60 Roll Club, 70 roll club, Registered for WCC
Skinny,
Some time ago I met a fellow who has recently joined this board. He bet the hard six if the come out roll was a hard eight. I don’t remember his bet was $1 or $5. If the come out was a hard six he bet the hard eight.
If his starting bet was $1, then with one hit his $1 bet became $10, Two hits his bet became $100, three hits his bet became $1,000. I don’t remember what he did after the fourth hit.
As I have posted in the long past, at one time I used a somewhat similar betting pattern. I started with $5 bet for me, $1 for the dealers after a comeout hard 6 or 8. My bets went about half what he did instead of a full parlay.
I never got past the three hits, but one night I got the third hit twice. If I remember correctly, I took $^50 off the table twice from a starting $5 bet.
Noah
Not2soon – Jan 15, 2011 7:34 am (10.)
Dream Team Member – WCC Casino Champ 09
Hmmm… let me look at this in the only important way…
"Long live the Big Enchilada, down with Skinny"
"Long live the Fire Bet, down with Skinny"
The latter still sounds cooler to me!
Jumbotron Ron/Seymour Green – Jan 15, 2011 1:47 pm (11.)
GTC Alumni 40/50/60 Roll Club, POM 11/09, 01/11. Hitmen GM, "I write it, cause I live it and what’s more real than that".
I hopped the 3/2 3 times in a row last night. I hopped the 3/2 and the 5/2(I had already rolled the 3/2 and hit the point a few times already. I use 5/2 3/4 so 3/2 is good off that set. I set 3/3 5/1 going into to the point cycle and rolled another 3/2 by accident and I blanket out and forgot the hop was still up. I pressed both the 5/2 and 3/2 up to $25 on the new comeout. I put the dealers up for $5 for both. I thought I hit it twice for them but it was only once. Bow another 3/2 but I stayed at a quarter. I thought I hit 11 points but I think I sevened on the 10th. I wanted to go up on my odds every 3rd hit but I did it a little awkward. I wasn’t at full until point 3. I took 10 5x 3 times. I took $15 5x 4 times. I went to $32 $210(12 4 dealers 2/10 on a point of the 7th 5 which was the only one that came 4/1 on the comeout but I didn’t get it.
That 3 hops in a row should be called a Nachos Supreme W/Cheese.
I wouldn’t try a 4 tier parlay, 3 I can handle. I feel more comfortable going $15 to $100 to $300 to $500, or $50 to $300 to $500 to $1000. I like to take something just in case I miss. I learned a few of these tricks from a pretty damn good DC you know.
[Last Editor: Jumbotron Ron/Seymour Green, Jan 15, 2011 5]
Replies to this message
Skinny (Jan 15, 2011 5:27 pm)
Skinny – Jan 15, 2011 5:27 pm (11.1)
Certified Instructor, GTC Primer/Refresher/TuneUp/Advanced/GTB Grad, 40-Roll/50-Roll/60-Roll Club, Post of Distinction Double Black Chip/Post of the Month Gold Chip
Replying to: Jumbotron Ron/Seymour Green (Jan 15, 2011 1:47 pm)
I hopped the 3/2 3 times in a row last night. I hopped the 3/2 and the 5/2(I had already…
Ron,
I think you may want to call those 3 hops in a row the
triple wHOPper
Wagner – Jan 15, 2011 2:48 pm (12.)
GTC-GTB Graduate
This was a really important post for the controlled shooters who do not have good axis control and for the gamblers relying solely on luck.
Great job Skinny.
Mr. Arnold – Jan 15, 2011 3:37 pm (13.)
Random Shooter and Proud of It
You math people can take the fun out of everything. I hate to say this but I agree with Terry K who is still a punk if you ask me that gambling should be fun. What this Skinny character is doing is analyzing the game to death and he and Frank and the other geniuses at GTC are ruining the games for people like me.
And shall we say punks like that brothelman who think I am a coward because I couldn’t make the last two big events should know that during the first my cat died and during the second I had some troubles with a former wife.
I would love to see another event because I would come down and kick some butt of the females who think they can roll the dice. I would destroy them.
Math is just math. Gambling should be fun but you guys are killing it.
Replies to this message
sevenout (Jan 15, 2011 5:02 pm)
brothelman (Jan 16, 2011 5:54 am)
sevenout – Jan 15, 2011 5:02 pm (13.1)
Read the book, saw the movie, took the class, got the T-shirt, been refreshed
Replying to: Mr. Arnold (Jan 15, 2011 3:37 pm)
You math people can take the fun out of everything. I hate to say this but I agree with Terry…
Problems with your FORMER wife.
Well there’s a surprise!
Sorry to hear about your cat. I know when my dog died, my boss wouldn’t give me the week off to grieve. How unfair!
brothelman – Jan 16, 2011 5:54 am (13.2)
Just a tornado
Replying to: Mr. Arnold (Jan 15, 2011 3:37 pm)
You math people can take the fun out of everything. I hate to say this but I agree with Terry…
Yup you got me it does not matter weather you are pitching or catching you are still playin baseball bitch.
Thought you were going to keep our secret, shame on you i do not kiss and tell.
You think maybe next time you could kiss me first or at least the courtesy reach around P.A.L.
DB+W – Jan 15, 2011 5:40 pm (14.)
Noah: I always knew you were a "stand up" guy. Unfortunately, the national pastime is NOT baseball, it is lying to Congress a la Barry Bonds AND cheating on ones taxes.
The problem I see with "reporting" any casino wins when the casino is not providing the IRS with similar information, is that it invites the IRS to examine your income with a microscope and infer that there might be wins not reported, wins under reported, or activity elsewhere that might inflate ones income that is also unreported. The "can of worms" and the unintended consequences of ones honesty might very well create more problems than bargained for.
DB+W
Finisher – Jan 15, 2011 5:55 pm (15.)
POD Graduate Oct. class 2011 LV.Member of winning team box numbers.
DB+W To solve that just ask the casino for your year end statement. What a shock it is usually. But maybe not for you.
Good Betting.
Replies to this message
chicagoeddie (Jan 15, 2011 11:53 pm)
chicagoeddie – Jan 15, 2011 11:53 pm (15.1)
Replying to: Finisher (Jan 15, 2011 5:55 pm)
DB+W To solve that just ask the casino for your year end statement. What a shock it is usually. But…
Hi Finisher.
I don’t know about now. But about 10 years ago a friend who plays the slots and use to lose most of his check each week had a year where he hit several taxable wins. And he said the irs wanted more info then what the statement from the boat provided. It has never happened to me so I don’t know. But I have read that the irs wanted times, dates, starting buyins and ending cashout, table numbers etc. The statement says it may not be accurate and is for informational purposes only. I no longer have it but just to see one I requested in writing and all it provided was a loss figure for the year. And it was inaccurate. My wife’s showed she lost 13k or so. But my wife often pulls her card out of the reader while playing believing you can’t win big if your card is in there. So her’s loss was probably accurate as to her play when her card was in.
DB+W – Jan 15, 2011 6:28 pm (16.)
Finisher: Thanks, but the IRS will not be satisfied. The unintended consequences of real honesty is that you must supply the proof of wins and losses, you must endure the rigors of an audit, you are the one who is being unjustly examined, and you are GUILTY of cheating the govt by manufacturing unreliable information which, again, you must supply.
If the IRS does not get ANY income data from a third party, they are not entitled to your data which might very well be erroneous.
DB+W
Replies to this message
chicagoeddie (Jan 16, 2011 12:33 am)
chicagoeddie – Jan 16, 2011 12:33 am (16.1)
Replying to: DB+W (Jan 15, 2011 6:28 pm)
Finisher: Thanks, but the IRS will not be satisfied. The unintended consequences of real honesty is that you…
Hi DB+W.
I am being audited for the 2007 tax year. It is a very slow process. The irs doesn’t want any proof of my earnings or profits. I guess they just take my word for earnings or profits. But they wanted proof of every single deduction claimed on my itemized form. I found that out by phoning the number on the papers they sent me. Here’s what they wanted. I claimed 2157 general taxes. They want proof of that. I explained on the phone that I don’t have proof of that. They said I would lose it and have to pay along with penalties & interest. I said whichever tax program I used asks me to put in info and the program picked that amount from my wife’s $45k earnings. I was told if I don’t prove it I lose it. They also wanted real estate taxes, home mortgage interest, gifts to charity investment expenses and energy expenses. For charity I said I don’t have proof of the $400 gave by cash & checks. I said I do have a form from the salvation army for the $260 I claimed by other then cash & checks. He said I would lose the $400 and owe tax plus interest.I told him a couple hundred was cash or checks to the church and things like march of dimes, Mercy home for orphans. I explained how my banks have stopped sending back checks for several years. And I switched banks because the one I was with before started charging me monthly fees. And now my new back just started charging me a $3 monthly fee.
What happened is this. Our basement never flooded except once years ago when it rained so hard that rain water back up through the sewers in Chicago. It was claimed that was fixed and could never happen again. But this last summer it did happen again because the City didn’t open the valves to release the water into Lake Michigan in time. I keep most of my main tax papers in a folder or large enevelope. Like w2s, stock statements, house taxes etc. I had 3 storage boxes with these. And then I would keep the larger piles of papers in more boxes the same way. Like receipts from home depot for new windows, insulation etc. We got over 2 feet of water in the basement. It actually made the concrete floor rise and crack. And lots of stuff was completely destroyed. My wife was throwing out stuff for weeks. I threw out a lot of the tax support papers etc. My actual tax returns for the last 10 years weren’t destroyed because they are still in my house because I still never filed my taxes for 2009. I couldn’t understand where to put all the info on turbo tax and still haven’t done my 2009 taxes.
I don’t cheat on my taxes. But I ended up throwing out my old tax forms from 1969 up until about 7 or 10 years ago which I still have. While looking for proof of deductions I did find a form from when my dad died in 2009. And it did show $200 for the church twice. So I included that and explained that it wasn’t the $400 I deducted for cash deductions. But the church required those two $200 payments for a Catholic mass etc. And I did also give the priest $200 cash. But of course I don’t have a receipt for that either.
When they sent me the paperwork they only gave me 30 or 60 days to provide proof of deductions. I sent them the paperwork I still had. And now finally after several more months I received a paper saying I would hear from them By Jan 31st telling how much I owe or with the decision or something like that.
Finisher – Jan 15, 2011 6:43 pm (17.)
POD Graduate Oct. class 2011 LV.Member of winning team box numbers.
DB+W I am not too worried about audits. As long as there is people out there making more money in ONE year then I have in a life time I am but a little man in a Big world.
Good Betting.
DB+W – Jan 15, 2011 6:54 pm (18.)
Finisher: I agree, but why draw unnecessary attention to ones self that can only create grief and discomfort. That is my point. Supplying unnecessary information to an entity that has unlimited investigative powers can take some of that attention away from those big money-makers who really need to be scrutinized.
DB+W
Dominator – Jan 15, 2011 6:59 pm (19.)
Certified Instructor, 40-Roll Club, 50-Roll Club, 60-Roll Club, 70-Roll Club"An Advantage Player achieves success when opportunity, preparation, and skill meet."
*
Skinny this is a variation of what we have done with buying the 4 and 10 and parley the hit to table max! What a lot of fun that is!
And you know that if I ever play a hardway on myself or Stickman…I will always parley the first hit!
OK you got me here, I do sometimes play hardways on all the 4 Horsemen or myself.
As far as the firebet, I have to disagree with you that the thrill is in making the money. After making all six numbers and getting the money is just proof that it was made. But for me it is the challenge of making all 6 numbers that gets me to play it.
Dominator
Replies to this message
chicagoeddie (Jan 16, 2011 3:00 am)
chicagoeddie – Jan 16, 2011 3:00 am (19.1)
Replying to: Dominator (Jan 15, 2011 6:59 pm)
Skinny this is a variation of what we have done with buying the 4 and 10 and parley the hit…
Hi Dominator.
I suggested parlaying the 4 & 10 on this site a few years ago. Also suggested sometimes parlaying the hardways. Back then some of you told me either take less or quit playing.
Glad to see some of you have at least tried it. It can get exciting once in while, even for you bigger players. Just imagine how exciting it is for a small $5 player like me.
Thanks for giving me a free 30 days again. I wish everyone of you the best of luck. I am sending all of you some of my luck too.
Thanks again for the 2nd free 30 days.
I only hope someday I can play at a table with you to see which of us can throw more 10s.
Below I copied one of the few posts I made last time you gave me a free 30 days here. The last part was one of the few posts I made suggesting that some of you skillful shooters could get a few exciting big wins if you tried parlaying certain numbers when you shot like the 4 or 10. In other posts I suggested trying to parlay the hard 6 or 8 3 or more times.
May 29, 2008 9:27 pm (7.)
This is the highest level I ever played at. At this time I was buying in for $700 but used a strict $400 stop loss. I was betting $5 pass plus $10 odds. Then $5 come plus $10 odds. But if the pass number was a 6 or 8 I would place the other for $18. And when I would shoot I would also start with a $25 10. Many people don’t realize it only takes 4 hits on a 10 or 4 to get to $2000 from $25. I would parlay to 75, to 225, to 675 and if the 4th hit comes I would go down and start over. Now for a random shooter like me the true odds are 80 to 1 against 4 hits. My longest waiting steak was about 170. After I shot 100 times without collecting on this parlay I raised my starting bet on the 10s to 50. I think I was about in the 170s when I finally hit. And after I hit I decided I would give myself 3 turns to hit again starting at $100. I was to be the last shooter at the Empress. But one of the floor people that wouldn’t let me be one of the last 3 shooters saw me and ended the game before I could shoot. Back then they would call last 3 shooters before closing. And there were two or three floor men that would not let me shoot near closing. One of my friends made a big deal out of it. We went back the next night. When my turn came I started the 10s at $100. I went to 300 to 900 and hit and came down and started over. Then I did this two more times before I sevened out.
Now I think I read someplace that Frank throws a lot of 4s. And now at many places you only pay the vig if you win. And Frank is a much bigger bettor. And I have no skill in shooting. But he does and many of you do too. Maybe some of you should try parlaying the 10s or 4s. Or whatever numbers you throw a lot of. Say Frank starts the 4s at $100. He could easily parlay it to 300, to 900 and to 2700 with just 3 hits. For a random shooter like me the odds are only 26 to 1 for that. So the odds must be lower for him. And from there he could continue to press something like to 3000 or 3500. Then to 4000 or 5000 etc. And all of you shoot much more then I do now. So you could expect to make some nice collections much more often the I ever could. Maybe something to think about trying.
Eddie G
[Last Editor]
Mr. Arnold – Jan 15, 2011 7:03 pm (20.)
Random Shooter and Proud of It
I love the fire bet and I don’t bother with the IRS. I am in a cash business and let them try to get me.
Not2soon – Jan 15, 2011 7:06 pm (21.)
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Dream Team Member – WCC Casino Champ 09
I sure hope the auditor is a woman!
OneMoonCircles – Jan 15, 2011 9:32 pm (22.)
I understand some other states just like Colorado have a $100 max bet so the big enchilada is just a small combo. For just $17 initial hardway 4/10 in one hit you can be "golden", up $2 and at table max with the parlay. We don’t have the fire bet here.
The Riviera (local) has added a 12′ craps table as of 11/22/10. Bullwhackers casino took theirs out and Fitzgeralds added one table for a net gain of 1 table in Central City/Blackhawk.
OMC
DougB – Jan 17, 2011 2:46 am (23.)
June 2010 Vegas Premier Grad
How is losing money fun?
How is losing money by gambling fun?
How is winning money not fun?
How is being a controlled shooter winning money not fun?
Professor – Jan 18, 2011 4:17 pm (24.)
GTC grad 2011, Post of the Month 4/11
I am a novice shooter hoping to take one of your classes, but why is it the only people I have seen hit the fire bet, Skinny, are random throwers. All what looked to be control shooters were never close. I don’t get it. I am a true believer in GTC but this is so disconcerting. Hope to hear your response and some day meeting you.LR
Replies to this message
brothelman (Jan 19, 2011 7:22 am)
brothelman – Jan 19, 2011 7:22 am (24.1)
Just a tornado
Replying to: Professor (Jan 18, 2011 4:17 pm)
I am a novice shooter hoping to take one of your classes, but why is it the only people I…
How many random shooters have you played with?
How many actual controlled shooters have you played with.
As for me i have thrown more five number hits on the fire bet but i had to change my set to do it.
My point is simple there are thousands of random rollers too every controlled shooter So you see them alot less.
Just because someone sets the dice does not make them a controlled shooter!
CIII – Jan 18, 2011 5:56 pm (25.)
GTC Graduate Las Vegas, Oct 2006, Refresher Chicago, Sept 2011, Post of the Month 12/07, Post of Distinction, Post of the Month 8/11
LouisR,
Good observation!
Don’t be perplexed by that. Elite shooters have a tenancy to repeat numbers and, therefore, will not make a group of five or six different point numbers.
You will note in one of Frank’s books that Stickman hits one six right after another .When Stickman shot his 77 roll with out a seven, he would probably not have hit the Fire Bet. His first Point was a four and he did not repeat it for 43 roll as I remember.
To hit six different points you have to be hitting many different numbers. For a good shooter, repeaters are the mark of excellence.
CIII
Steven C – Jan 18, 2011 8:18 pm (26.)
Tunica 08 Basic Class, Tune-up X 1, POD, 40 Roll Club, Point-7 Champ
LouisR,
As CIII states the GTC method focuses on repeat numbers. From the Hardway set I throw mostly inside numbers with 5 and 9 being just as prevalent as the 6 and 8. Should I change to the 3V I get lots of 6’s and 8’s. And I could care less if I hit the point. That’s not to say that I don’t get happy to be paid on the point, it’s just that I want to hit numbers over and over again and keep pushing them upwards money wise and with a point that is much harder.
Do I play the "Fire Bet", negative, no, mot at all … at least I’ll never admit to it for fear of the Curse of Skinny.
Just kidding "Skins", I never play that most awful of the afulest
JoeyD – Jan 19, 2011 6:40 am (27.)
40/50 roll club
Skinny, a nice idea! Well thought through and easily displayed for us to understand.
I like it. Frankly, it’s another way to get some real action out there (but without sidetracking your mind from the task at hand – if you can handle the $$).
I think I will do the $4 Hard 4 and 10 on each of my possessions this upcoming trip and see what I can get done! I might do this on a two-way basis (throw out two reds and make them $4 for me / $1 for the crew). I hit one of those and they love me forever. To do that, I guess I would have to tell them what i’m doing and merely "own the bet" until hit #3
Hit 1 – payoff is $35, announce "press to $40" and tell the dealers, they’re on for $8
Hit 2 – payoff is $280, announce "press to $320" and tell the dealers they’re on for $64 now
Hit 3 – payoff is $2,240, announce "press mine to $2,048 and the dealers are up on it for $512 now
Hit 4 – I collect $14K+ on my hit and dealers can still get back on theirs (assuming the casino doesn’t apply the per-payout maximum to both my bet and the crews)
What a cool concept. Of course, there are variations of this too. I could not tell the dealers what I’m doing and simply tip them the $512 above after three hits…..could you imagine the expression?!
Again, Skinny, thank you for the insight and I’m looking forward to playing this strategy this upcoming weekend in AC (any chance you can join me there Sunday and/or Monday?)
Replies to this message
Skinny (Jan 22, 2011 1:50 am)
Skinny – Jan 22, 2011 1:50 am (27.1)
Certified Instructor, GTC Primer/Refresher/TuneUp/Advanced/GTB Grad, 40-Roll/50-Roll/60-Roll Club, Post of Distinction Double Black Chip/Post of the Month Gold Chip
Replying to: JoeyD (Jan 19, 2011 6:40 am)
Skinny, a nice idea! Well thought through and easily displayed for us to understand. I like it. Frankly,…
JoeyD,
I am pleased you enjoyed the post. I had a lot of fun coming up with it and writing it up.
As you can tell from The Goddess’ post I have just come back from AC. I will be traveling this weekend and do not plan to go to AC again until the March class. Can you make it then, either for the class or at least for the Meet and Greet? The Meet and Greet is a great way to get in touch with numerous GTCers and have a lot of fun.
I hope everyone realizes I am not recommending the Big Enchilada as an advantage play. The HA is worse on this bet than it is on the Fire Bet. My objective when I came up with this was to find a wager that was comparable to the 6 point fire bet with a better payoff. I thought most folks were attracted to the fire bet because it had a big payoff for only a $1 or $5 wager. I was looking for something that had similar odds (6,000+ to 1 against) with a far superior payout. The Big Enchilada accomplishes that objective.
But it is a worse bet because the HA is worse than that for the fire bet. The payouts on the 4 and 5 point hits help to make the fire bet a better bet in terms of expectation.
If your goal is to get to table max on the hard 4 or 10 why don’t you start at $40? Odds of 1 to 728 are easier to overcome than odds of 1 to 6560. You have the BR to handle that wager so why not make it easier to hit?
Of course there are better ways to try to make a big parlay. Chicagoeddie has written up several that have lower odds than the Big Enchilada. How about the 4 or 10 parlay that he wrote about? Start at $100 and parlay to table max via $300, $900, $2700, $5000 (pocketing $3100). 5 hits have odds of 242 to 1 and you collect $10,000 plus the $3,100 you took at hit 4. If you take the bet down then you walk with $18,100 less $450 paid in vig and your original $100 wager. Total profit is $17,550.
There are a lot of other combinations that work as well. Figure out which one you want to try and work out the numbers in terms of starting point, progression and odds you want to try to overcome.
CIII – Jan 19, 2011 9:00 am (28.)
GTC Graduate Las Vegas, Oct 2006, Refresher Chicago, Sept 2011, Post of the Month 12/07, Post of Distinction, Post of the Month 8/11
Hardway Parlay chart deleted thanks to:
db+w
His efforts for a more respectable message board are paying off.
chicagoeddie – Jan 19, 2011 3:08 pm (29.)
Hi Joey D.
Just for your information. Most of this was at the first two boats in Joliet, IL. and the one in Aurora, IL.
When I use to bet a $3 hard 6 or 8 for me and $1 for the dealers, player control, some places and some boxmen or pit boses would only let me parlay the dealers bet only once. And some boats wouldn’t let me parlay dealer bets at all. Back then I didn’t like making it as one bet because the tables had a $1000 maximum and I could only parlay the total bet from 3 to 30 to 300. I don’t know how it is now but back then all tables around IL would have a sign saying something like maximum win is 2 times table maximum or maximum payout is 3 times table maximum.
Later when they went to $2000 maximums I would bet $5 for me and $1 for the dealers all on my bet and tell the dealers $1 was for them. They quickly started preferring to be tipped that way. Even the few times when they would lose at the $100 level. And I use to quit with at a $200 or $300 stop loss. And I would color up. Then I use to take $5 and say for the dealers. But once the dealers started likeing the parlays, on the side they would ask if I was going to tip $5 bet it on one of the hardways and parlay it for them. So at the end of play I would bet a $5 hardway, my bet not the dealers. If it wins I want to parlay the $50 and the dealers get it. Some other players and my friends would tell me I was crazy to do this. Saying stuff like you just lost $200 or $300. How can you give the dealers the whole $500. Take back your losses from it first.
I was always thanked for the bets. Later I switched to playing some other boats too. And then at the end of play I would bet $5 each, hard 6 & 8. And if it won I only parlayed it once. And if it hit I would split it with the dealers. Then later I switched to if it hit parlaying it to $50. And if it hit at $50 I would just double it to $100 etc. and split the other $400 with the dealers.
[Last Editor]
JoeyD – Jan 19, 2011 6:40 pm (30.)
40/50 roll club
Thanks Eddie, appreciate the input
JD
F. Scoblete – Jan 27, 2011 9:34 pm (31.)
GTC-GTB Instructor; 40-50-60-80-roll clubs. World Champion: Number of 50+ hands in one year – 6 times.
I am going to put Skinny’s post in the GTC Wisdom section in a few weeks. It is really something that should be read over and over by the gamblers who really think they have a shot at winning on these bets in the long run.
F. Scoblete – Feb 12, 2011 5:52 am (32.)
GTC-GTB Instructor; 40-50-60-80-roll clubs. World Champion: Number of 50+ hands in one year – 6 times.
This post is now going into the "GTC Wisdom" section as well. I think all players who wish to make outlandish bets owe it to themselves to read this and give it some thought. Skinny, as always, did a great job.
Posted by: Skinny on January 11, 2012, 10:41 pm
I hope everyone realizes I am not recommending the Big Enchilada as an advantage play. The HA is worse on this bet than it is on the Fire Bet.
I do not think this is a good bet. I was only making a comparison between one bad bet (Fire Bet) and another (Big Enchilada).
I realize there are gamblers out there that we can not change no matter how hard we try. So for them I came up with this as an alternative.
You are certainly right about the downside to both bets. When the pressure builds because you are getting close to a big payoff your body will react.
Posted by: Finisher on December 21, 2012, 12:03 am
Some times I place the 4 or 10 after I hit the hard way with my win if I am on the hard way . It depends on how I feel about my throw at the time.
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Skinny on December 21, 2012, 12:39 am
"Skinny" wrote: I hope you all did not overlook where I said,
I hope everyone realizes I am not recommending the Big Enchilada as an advantage play. The HA is worse on this bet than it is on the Fire Bet.
I do not think this is a good bet. I was only making a comparison between one bad bet (Fire Bet) and another (Big Enchilada).
I realize there are gamblers out there that we can not change no matter how hard we try. So for them I came up with this as an alternative.
So this is a bet that I have never made and do not plan on making. Your question has no meaning to me since I don’t make this bet.
Posted by: Finisher on December 21, 2012, 5:59 am
But am willing to practice the Enchilada at home just for fun . 😀 😀
I still have the bad habit of betting the world on come out rolls . I roll a lot of crap on come out rolls so at times it does pay a little. I never press the world but have seen others do it and make money. I one time rolled 17 rolls before the est. of point but have not done that lately. I roll 2-5 rolls before I est. the point. I think that 17 roll was a freak thing.
I do like to mix things up in practice. I am not going to a casino till Feb or MARCH so have time to practice different things.
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Skinny on December 21, 2012, 5:57 pm
Sounds like you are making good progress on cutting out those Crazy Crapper bets. Keep up the good work because… (See two sentences below).
Posted by: AlamoTx on December 28, 2012, 10:11 pm
Happy New Year all!
Alamo
