Too many dice controllers think that if you set the dice perfectly, aim them perfectly, throw them perfectly, spin them perfectly then the result will be what you want it to be – perfect.

Unfortunately that is not true.

A perfect starting throw (most of us do not have perfect starting throws but let’s pretend) will not end up perfect when the entire throw is finished.

When those dice leave your hand little imperfections are created even in the perfect throw – those dice usually split somewhat in the air – they are not glued together any more. You see this almost all the time.

Then they hit the table which takes a great deal of your perfection away. Then they hit the back wall where much more of the perfection is lost. Then they bounce once or twice or three times after hitting the back wall. Perfection eaten away some more.

Then they land. Total perfection is totally gone. Now you have increments of perfection – or, to make this simple, you have an imperfect result. A Hardway setter usually doesn’t throw the hardways all the time. The 3-V setter doesn’t always throw a 6 or 8.

The best of our GTC dice controllers have double digit edges when all is said and done. SmartCraps shows us this – brutally I might add. So what does this all mean?

Let us take someone with a great edge – 10 percent. That means for every $100 he bets, he will win on average 10 dollars. That means many of his throws lose him money as you can’t bet a hundred dollars and win ten dollars – that’s not the craps payout scheme.

You will win some throws and lose many more throws but you can only lose the money you have on the table – no more – but you can win a hell of a lot more money than that on your good throws.

The dice controller is in a long run game where his skill alters the statistics of the game to favor him. It does not alter the statistics enough to make any thrower infallible. That’s not how it goes.

When I wrote about the AC disaster many of us had in our high roller room, too many GTCers jumped to the conclusion that our throws must have been off. They weren’t. I looked at the throws and they were fine. Dominator looked at the throws and they were fine. Other instructors looked at the throws and they were fine.

So what happened? Nothing, really. There are no perfect throws and we hit a negative valley for a few days. Yes, there were winning rolls in all of this but not enough to make the week successful. That doesn’t mean the throws were not good – or great, as some were.

When you have a long winning streak you don’t think you will ever have a losing day. A trip to Vegas last year saw me winning on 12 straight days. My throws were no better or worse than my throws in AC.

So why did I win one week and lose another week?

No throw ends up perfectly. You will have swings of good days and bad and often there is nothing wrong with your throw.

Now that is not to say that often the throw is so far from perfection that by the time it lands it is really random. That is something that has to be worked on. That is why we practice.

Yes, we aim for perfection but there isn’t one dice controller, even the elite, who actually get perfection. How often have you seen what you thought was the perfect shot end in a seven?

Many times.

That’s just the way it is. You "see" what you think is perfection but the craps table doesn’t give us that perfection very often if at all.

From No Field Five:

Frank and StreetDog hit the nail on the head. Here is my Investment analogy to Craps and Variance.

Variance is just like the stock market. If you had invested money in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks the day after the great depression, you would be very well off now.

But take a look at the dips and highs along the way. Those peaks and valleys are variance. What we are interested in is the overall result. One year ago the Dow was at 11,000. Friday, it was at 13,500. The long term result is a big win. Was this 2,500 point gain a straight line? Of course not! There were some major variance in getting from 11,000 to 13,500. But with wise investing in quality companies and staying the course, you did improve your bottom line by 2,500 points.

Advantage play for a dice controller or a card counter results in short term losses that will be outperformed by the long term wins,……if……. and this is a big IF, you invested in "Best of Breed" betting (To use a Jim Cramer term).

What is "Best of Breed" in the financial world. It is a financially sound company with a good CEO that provides a safe investment opportunity for your nest egg. Will a Best of Breed company take off like a rocket? Normally not so much, but they will not lose a huge chunk of value in a short term dip, and when the market goes up that stock will too.

You ask, "Now NFF, how in the world can I determine a "Best of Breed" (BOB) bet on the Craps table?"

You only have to look as far as the low vig bets. When you look at the Pass Line or Come Bets with as much in odds as your bankroll can play you should see "BOB", Place 6 and 8, buy 4 and 10 with vig paid after are all "BOB" bets. Those are the truly "Best of Breed" bets. They are not the bets that have huge payoffs in the short run, but they are the bets that over the long haul will make us consistent winners.

Some would say, "NFF, I like to speculate in my portfolio, how can I do that on the craps table?" My answer to you, my friend, is this.

First, never speculate on a random roller. Always 5-Count the random roller and put as little investment capital as possible at risk.

Secondly, if you must speculate, wait for a dice controller whose shot you know well (You, or someone you play with often) who is pounding out hardways, or a place number such as 5 or 9. These high vig bets are risky, but will provide a good return on investment in short term "Trades". I use the term "Trades" because we are only on these high vig bets for a short time. We do not count on them for the long term investment. Remember those are not "BOB". Only risk a very small portion of your session bankroll on these plays.

Now if the dice controller continues pounding these bets your speculative investments will pay off nicely, and if he suddenly stops hitting those hardways, you are not really hurt by the small investment in them. Your "BOB" bets are carrying you through.

Steady consistent investing in BOB bets with a small portion of your overall bankroll will result in long term wins. The peaks and valleys will occur, but you have to stay in the game and be consistent in your investment strategy.

Now, in the last 2 months you have heard about two examples of Craps variance. In March, the 6 and 1/2 hour session was a peak; and, the recent sessions mentioned by Frank, Dom, and others was a big dip in the otherwise steady gain of the "GTCIA" (Golden Touch Craps Investment Average).

NFF

From Skinny:

Frank,

I could not have said it better myself.

Seriously though, I have been thinking the exact same thing ever since we left AC. For the past several days I have been trying to figure out how to express it clearly and concisely. I am ecstatic to see you write it in a manner far better than I ever could.

Several of the responses on the prior thread you started regarding this last trip left me extremely troubled. I can understand searching for answers as to why the group did not do well. Now I think you have made the "why" perfectly clear in your post.

The end result had nothing to do with poor throws, table conditions, dice sets, dice, environmental conditions or any of the other numerous suggestions bandied about on that other thread. I know I am just as culpable as anyone else when it comes to the blame game. It is a natural human reaction to look for a cause and effect relationship. But, as Sigmund Freud said, "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar".

After all is said and done we need to realize, as Frank, Dom, Street Dog, Rick and NFF have said above losses are going to happen. This is the nature of the game we have chosen to undertake. It is not possible to win on each and every outing. One can have a long stretch of wins and this may lead us to believe it is the norm. But eventually the math will take over. I do not mean the math of the game. But the math of being a dice controller. Frank said it best,

"The dice controller is in a long run game where his skill alters the statistics of the game to favor him. It does not alter the statistics enough to make any thrower infallible. That’s not how it goes."

Dom made a similar point in one of his posts where he said,

"The variance in what we do caught up with me. We have an edge, but the variance will be there, and it was there those 4 days! The breaks did not come. As I have said in the past in any long roll there has to be a little bit of luck. A bad shot that doesn’t show a 7 but will keep the roll going. This "luck" that I am talking of didn’t show its head at all in my throws for those days. Great shots showed a 7 as well as bad shots.".

I am overjoyed I had as many good turns with the dice as I did. On an emotional level, I expect to roll that way and better each and every time. But being rational and logical, I am not so delusional to think I was the cause of all those rolls. I know for a fact there were many times I did not execute my best toss. The dice gods were kind and I did not throw the dreaded devil. There were rolls, even on my long runs, I was not happy with and there were a number of seven outs which I felt I threw perfectly. I believe, both statements are correct. One needs a bit of luck to continue a decent roll and sometimes what feels like the perfect throw ends up in a seven. Dom stated that above and Frank explained why it happens in his post here.

While a certain amount of introspection is useful to help us learn from the past, one needs to keep it in the proper perspective. Frank and Dom have done well in their posts to give us insight and bring equilibrium to this game. As the consummate educators they both are, there are valuable lessons to be learned from their experience and wisdom. It is marvelous they are willing to share and offer advice from this to help us become better in this journey.

As for the trip, I am delighted we had the opportunity to get together to enjoy each others company and friendship. These are special times which I cherish immensely.

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