Craps

Probability, SRR, Come Betting and Place Betting…Thoughts?

Spread the love


Let me first say, I understand the odds on the come bet, I also understand the advantage of shaving the house edge down with placing odds on your come bet. However there is something that I have questioned for a while. I am not a math whiz or anything but I could probably figure out the answer to this myself. However, I would have to learn the formula, the variables, the calculations, etc. etc. before I could even attempt to figure out the answer to my question.

I always hear, especially from new students, why the come bet over the place bet? Trust me when I say, I see the GTC side of things but, I also see the other side of that as well.

So it boils down to what I would love to figure out.

Here are two examples:

1. I am the shooter, my SRR is maybe a little better than average but not where it should be. I place my pass line bet and roll the dice, lets say the point is a 10. At this point per GTC instructions I should put odds on the pass line and place a come bet. I do that and the come bet moves to the 5, I place odds on the 5 and my final come bet, the come bet then becomes a 6 and I place odds on the 6. Now I have three working bets with odds, the 5, 6, and 10 and I have rolled the dice three times. We know there are 5 different ways to roll the 6, 4 ways to roll a 5, 3 ways to roll a 10, and of coarse 6 ways to roll a 7. So what would the probability be of rolling any of those numbers again before rolling the 7?

2. Everything the same as the above example but instead of placing a come bet you place the 6 and 8? So you have your point on 10, and two place bets on 6 and 8. At this point I have only rolled the dice once, I agree the house edge is not as good on the place bets but the probability of rolling a 6 and 8 and even the 10 before rolling a seven is higher due to the fact that you are not as many rolls into your session.

I also think that you need to be self aware of your SRR and know when it is time to change from the place bet strategy to the come bet strategy. For instance if my SRR was as Dom’s, place betting would be totally out of my head.


Replies:

Posted by: Finisher on February 26, 2019, 12:35 am

Now I am not a math guy but in 1. You have at risk on first roll 5.00 then on roll 2 you have 5 plus 15 for odds with 5 in come . YOUR RISK IS 25 to win 5 or 30 . On roll 3 you have 20 on line and one come bet with a risk of 5 plus 25 for odds or what every you decide .
I bring this up since you have less risk at first with come bets then with place bets . With your place bet on the roll 2 you have the 20 on pas line but have 12 on the 6 and 8 so the risk is 37 to win 30 or 6 or loose all . So at the vary start with come bets you do not loose all . Just another thought that you may want to think about . You also may loose with a crap number tho .
I hope to some day throw repeaters which is NICE if you are come betting .
Other wise with come betting you do get a lot of money out at risk after the 3rd or 4th roll . That can be a big hole to get out of if you have no repeaters during your roll and roll a 7 with no come bet .

Posted by: bminus1 on February 26, 2019, 2:03 am

There is an excellent discussion about place betting vs. pass/come betting with odds for a range of SRRs by Stickman that can be found on this site. Here is the link: https://www.goldentouchcraps.com/articl … n_037.html As usual, Stickman makes a complex subject understandable and he uses the math for the basis of his conclusions. This is one of many reasons why I am a GTC fan.

Posted by: Dr Crapology on February 26, 2019, 12:50 pm

Finisher–as No Field Five says, you want to lose less so you can win more. At GTC we are in it for the long run, not the short run. Why? Because with the advantage we create with our skill, we can over come the house advantage on pass line / come bets much easier that any other bet on the table. If we are only in the game for the thrill of a big win, we would be betting the crazy crapper bets such as the hard ways, horn bets and any seven. Heck we would bet the hard 4 hopping on every roll of the dice by every player at the table and we would lose our collective a** big time.

Just a thought from the peanut gallery.

Doc

Posted by: Finisher on February 27, 2019, 3:32 am

So Doc which would you do 1 OR 2 That is the question . I guess that you are talking about some thing said on another post ? I was just adding some to this post . I wish that I could see more from guys like you and others with great advise more . Just my .01 worth .
Just think how many gofers there are that don’t get lessons from pros. all the time and that some never do but still LOVE the game . It was said at the beginning of this post to see BOTH sides so that is what I hoped would happen .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Finisher on February 27, 2019, 3:35 am

Doc. I like what Skinny says less out of rack and more in rack . TOO.
Good Rolling.

Posted by: Dr Crapology on February 27, 2019, 1:19 pm

Finisher, I am a golfer and at my age (77) I could care less about how good I shoot. My 3 rules are no lessons, no practice and very little warm up prior to beginning play. The guys I play we play for big money—Quarters 😀 . The difference for me between golf and playing craps is my monetary possible loss for golf is maybe $2.50 and the $35 for the cost of playing a local municipal course. The reward is being out in the outdoors with friends and a beer and a cheese burger afterwards. And the big bonus for Rose—she gets me out of the house so she can do what she likes–working in her sewing room. A win/win for both of us.

Now craps is a serious business with possible much larger money at risk–so I take it very serious, practice a bunch, have the instructors take a look at my throw, (remember I an married to a great instructor and I get looked at most every day. AND WE LOVE THE GAME.

Doc

Posted by: Finisher on February 28, 2019, 3:54 am

Doc. Just like an instructor avoid the question first . I am not a golfer and will never be one ( 70 yrs young .) Tho I had to retire early for rotator surgery on both arms to later find that I have a broken hand with 10 % FEX IN WRIST . I once went golfing with two guys from work who were retiring so I took them to a private course that I ad access to for a discount . I was then informed that I needed my own clubs to play which I told them that I would be their driver and watch them play . They said that would be fine as long as I paid . After we got out on the course they gave me 2 clubs to hit the balls with . I had to hit the ball 2 times just to reach their balls .One time I had them both laughing . They told me to just am at their ball out there .It was about 100 or more yds. away . You know that it did happen I HIT their ball . They were Shocked to say the least . I thought I did a great hit . I don’t think we even keep score .
As far as craps goes I think that the cost of my table is like some pay for their clubs . Which you know better then I do . If I was not at the crap table then I would be at a slot machine . I am like most on this site that is we started as gramblers and hope to become better players and loose less and win more . This is a JOURNEY that some will make and some will NOT .
You see both sides in golf and I hope you can see both sides in craps and pick 1 or 2 in this post and say why . THANK You for all the info you give .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Dominator on February 28, 2019, 1:46 pm

"Drummer" wrote:
I always hear, especially from new students, why the come bet over the place bet? Trust me when I say, I see the GTC side of things but, I also see the other side of that as well.

So it boils down to what I would love to figure out.

Here are two examples:

1. I am the shooter, my SRR is maybe a little better than average but not where it should be. I place my pass line bet and roll the dice, lets say the point is a 10. At this point per GTC instructions I should put odds on the pass line and place a come bet. I do that and the come bet moves to the 5, I place odds on the 5 and my final come bet, the come bet then becomes a 6 and I place odds on the 6. Now I have three working bets with odds, the 5, 6, and 10 and I have rolled the dice three times. We know there are 5 different ways to roll the 6, 4 ways to roll a 5, 3 ways to roll a 10, and of coarse 6 ways to roll a 7. So what would the probability be of rolling any of those numbers again before rolling the 7?

2. Everything the same as the above example but instead of placing a come bet you place the 6 and 8? So you have your point on 10, and two place bets on 6 and 8. At this point I have only rolled the dice once, I agree the house edge is not as good on the place bets but the probability of rolling a 6 and 8 and even the 10 before rolling a seven is higher due to the fact that you are not as many rolls into your session.

I took my time to get to this post because I wanted to read what others would write. Understanding the GTC betting is a struggle that I have all the time – trying to come up with another way to say the same thing so that it hits home. Starting about 5 years ago, betting became as important a part of the seminar as the throw. Maybe it is because of my math background, I/we (all the GTC instructors), have emphasized the fact that betting is as important – maybe even more important than getting an edge over the casino with the throw. That even without getting an edge with your throw, you all will be a better and more profitable/winning player if you just follow ALL the betting instructions that GTC preaches in the seminar. I/we say constantly that the way to WIN more MONEY is to LEARN to lose less money. Why, because there will be losing sessions.

So Billy, Daryl, Pat, Janis, and I are constantly talking about this part of the seminar. I even have had some disagreements with some over the reason that I want all primers and refreshers to hear this lecture all the time. Some have said that students just want to learn the throw and they have heard it before. But I hold fast because I know that the reason that I say that only 10% of all the students that have attended the seminar really become advantage players instead of 100% is because the 90% are not betting properly.

Why is that? IMHO it is because math is boring. Students take the class and think that "Man if I practice everyday and get my SRR up I will have 30 hand rolls every single time I get the dice." NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! So to stay in the game betting becomes what has to be important. OK, with all that said here are the points to your question Drummer.

I am going to start with this – In my software business that is mostly advising clients on how to become more profitable in their business using math calculations I say to them – "I have clients that only want to know what time it is, and I have others that want to know how the clock works" Both can be become very profitable, and I can and will explain the calculations the best way I know how, but unless they love math, maybe it is better to just ask me what time it is. BTW, on a said note, those clients are my most profitable. So here goes with "what time it is" 😀

Write this down and achieve this SRR – an 6.23 SRR
With a SRR, (sevens to roll ratio), of 6.23 you have an edge over the house of 1.7%
With a SRR of 6.23 you can overcome the casino edge of placing the 6/8 (casino edge is 1.5% or a passline bet
You will have about a .2% edge as a place bettor

So even with just 2X odds and an SRR of 6.23 your edge over the house is 1.09% – (House edge on 2X odds is .61% – minus your edge of 1.7% = 1.09%)

When you immediately place the 6 your negative edge is 1.5%, if you are a come bettor that same one bet with 2X odds has a negative edge of just .61%. So even if you are not shooting with an edge by being a come bettor and taking 2X odds you are playing a game that is only .61% against you.

So with the question of what is the probability of what would the probability be of rolling any of those numbers again before rolling the 7? the answer is that it is not important because:
1. you are trying to throw in a controlled matter so the probability is different from random
2. If you use the probability of a random throw, by using come bets you have brought the house edge way down

Ok, some of you reading this still don’t understand and that is my dilemma. If that is the case, try to understand that to win more money you need to learn to lose less money – and the way to lose less money is to bring down the house edge of the bets that you make to the lowest possible. you do this by becoming a come bettor.

And I said before, you are not going to win every session that you play, you all know that. Even if you have an edge you will not win every session you play. So you got to ;
1. make the lowest house edge bets
2. Win your throw is on, if you make the lowest house edge bets you will make more money!

Rolling the dice only once or rolling the dice 20X doesn’t matter. what does matter is the math of this game. Do you think that the casino bean counters think about a player rolling just once or rolling 20X? No, they only think about the house edge. That is why your comps are judged on the type of bets you make- players that get higher comps are making bets that have a higher house edge.

As always, I am not sure if I have explained it so people can understand. If that is the case, do what I say in class, try it the GTC way for 6 months and you will see that you will become an more profitable player.

I welcome any comments from others on this post

Dom

Posted by: Wirenut on February 28, 2019, 2:52 pm

I think you did fine in explaining, Dom. I think i.may have a way to try to help explain it. Employee A and B go to work. For every day they go to work, they both earn a $100. Employee A is a Come bettor, Employee B is a place bettor.

For each day both employees work, Emp A pays a tax $8.50 (H/E .85) each day (PL/Come bet, 1X odds) on the $100. Emp B (Place 6/8) pays $15.10 (H/E 1.51) in taxes on the daily take.

Now take it a step further, Emp A has an option of adding write offs (free odds up to 5X) that allow the tax rate to drop even lower. So, rather than paying $8.50, per $100, they now only have to pay $3.30 on that same $100. Meanwhile, employee B is still paying $15.10 each work day.

Drummer,I understand in your question, you’re trying take as many collections in your first 6-8 rolls as possible assuming your roll with flame out just above average. It happens to all of us. I have thrown 7’s on what felt like the perfect throw. But if you for every $100 you win, you are able to keep more of it by Come betting.

While I am happy with where my throw is, my dice are random, so let’s suppose the 6 and 8 never come in? It’s probably the most frustrating thing about Place betting, you’re fixed on one number. One of the biggest things I hear about Come betting, you have to hit it twice. My argument to that in order to hit it twice, you have to hit it at least once. You’re situated on the 6/8 but you’re throwing 4/5/9/10’s. Every strategy has it’s inherent flaws, but with Come betting, you pay less of a tax.

Posted by: JawBones on February 28, 2019, 5:24 pm

Very nice analogy Wirenutt. Perfect explanation. And Dom, I think you explain it perfectly well and always have. For many, it won’t be believed until it is given a fair trial. I think one problem is that people will take it to heart and try come betting on their next trip but that happens to be the one where the dice just aren’t cooperating and they keep 7’ing out after getting that 2nd or 3rd come bet up. That is a very frustrating thing, as we all know. But, as you have said repeatedly, trying it once or twice is not enough. Do it exclusively for 6 months (even better, a year) and then see where your 401g is.

An even better option if you want to spend the time to do it, do PL and CB exclusively and 5-count everyone else but chart/track every throw at the casino. Later on after you have left, recreate each shooter and compare place betting as you would have done with the come betting and see for yourself which is better. If you do it long enough, I think I know what you will find.

Posted by: bminus1 on March 1, 2019, 1:02 pm

Question: has anyone looked at this link? https://www.goldentouchcraps.com/articl … n_037.html

Posted by: JawBones on March 1, 2019, 2:59 pm

Those of us that have been on here awhile have likely read that post several times. Those new should take the time to do so.

Posted by: Finisher on March 2, 2019, 12:39 am

I was SAD to see a lot of old great posts were lost in change .Then this site and all instructors have changed for A GREAT New site . It has gotten better for any body that whats to ask questions and get the real truth about winning at craps .
I also say to new players that they should read old posts to find lots of great info .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Finisher on March 2, 2019, 1:00 am

Jaw Bones You are right about the first time trying come bets as far as it went with me . The first time I decided to go with come bets I was the only person at the table that was doing it .IT did not end well for me .But the rest of the players loved my roll ,even the DP .It was one of the first times that a DP player thanked me for my roll .I did make money but not with come bets . If I remember right I got one win on a come bet but made like 8 or 9 points with 7 come out 7s . I told this on old post if you need to see the real numbers it was some time ago .
I still have not gone to all come bets but do 2 place bets to turn them into come and go from there with the rest as come bets . My BR says max 3 bets till I win some on a 5.00 table .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Dominator on March 2, 2019, 1:05 pm

"Finisher" wrote: I was SAD to see a lot of old great posts were lost in change .Then this site and all instructors have changed for A GREAT New site . It has gotten better for any body that whats to ask questions and get the real truth about winning at craps .
I also say to new players that they should read old posts to find lots of great info .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Than k you! I really believe that we have the best forum and also the best instructors and students in the country!

Dom

Posted by: bminus1 on March 4, 2019, 2:22 am

JawBones wrote "Those of us that have been on here awhile have likely read that post several times. Those new should take the time to do so."

I should emphasize that the link is not to a post, but a GTC ARTICLE. And it is an excellent discussion about place betting vs. pass/come betting with odds for a range of SRRs by Stickman – the exact question being raised. Link: https://www.goldentouchcraps.com/articl … n_037.html Stickman makes a complex subject understandable and he uses the math for the basis of his conclusions. This is one of many reasons why I am a GTC fan.
bminus1