Craps

Choosing to lose

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I don’t have much time to post, but I quickly wanted to share this.

I hate betting on other shooters, in fact I rarely do it.

Last night I watched a 73 number roll and lost $30 on it.

Sometimes I don’t think I am cut out for this game.

I am upset that I missed out on such a huge opportunity. There has to be a way to determine who to bet on, with the least amount of risk possible.

Any thoughts on how to pick a shooter? Any thoughts on how recover from the saddness of missing out on an awesome roll?

I feel as though my mindset needs some sort of upgrade to reduce the fear of losing. It more about my ego then it is about the money.

Thanks,
Lou


Replies:

Posted by: TheUsualSuspect on February 22, 2019, 5:16 pm

You bring up an excellent topic for discussion. If employing the five count rule, and you already bought into the game, no problem, place a reasonable bet incase the roll folds quickly. If the roll continues to hit numbers you are on your way. We are taught not to interrupt a shooter in the course of his roll, so buying in after the point is established, and the shooter looks like they are throwing to new heights is a touchy situation. I can only imaging if I were the shooter or you were and on a good roll, how we might feel if their was an interruption of someone throwing all those " Bennies" on the table for their buy in. Unfortunately we see it all the time. What have we been taught to do if there is a major interruption during the course of a roll, the shooter doesn’t have the same choices as us, being just a bettor. If you come up with a solution please share it, we all want to do what is proper and being courteous to a shooter is a good start. TheUsualSuspect, SemperFi, carry on

Posted by: Loucifer on February 22, 2019, 5:39 pm

I should also state that I dislike the 5-count as a qualification method.

After 4 rolls the probability that the roll will continue is less than 50%. In my opinion the 5-count just sets you up to get wacked. I know it works for everyone else on here and I am not looking to debate that.

What I am looking for is more of a set of protocols to determine if it is worth the risk.

This dude was definitely setting and delivering consistently, but his landings didn’t really look all that spectacular. And yet somehow he made it work.

Sincerely,
Lou

Posted by: MrPiP on February 22, 2019, 7:09 pm

Loucifer,

Come on, you dislike the 5-count ? Your anti-advantage play blasphemy 😈 will cause our "pope of advantage play in craps" to blow a gasket.

Posted by: Loucifer on February 22, 2019, 7:30 pm

The ultimate advantage play is to never bet on anyone but yourself. That’s how I play 98% of the time. I may have missed one really good roll, but I saved money on 20 really bad ones. The question I am asking is how can one know the one really good roll worth betting on?

For instance, this dude was using the 3V but tossing 4-5 fields in a row and hardly any 6’s or 8’s. Hence the reason I didn’t go up on him until it was too late.

Sincerely,
Lou

Posted by: Dr Crapology on February 22, 2019, 8:39 pm

Loucifer,

We strictly use the 5 count to select which random rollers we will bet on and then we only bet the minimum–minimum come bet and single odds–or double odds if it is a $5 table. As Mr. Finesse use to say we only want to win on ourselves or other known control shooters–keep your exposure to random rollers to a minimum. If a random roller has a good roll of some length we may raise our odds or go to a second number with minimum odds, but this is very seldom. As Dom always says right now, as you read this, somewhere some random roller is having a monster roll and none of us are on it.

You obviously ave excellent discipline so keep doing what your are doing and you will do well. If you want to have your shot looked at, come take a refresher class or a tune up.

Hope to see you soon.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: Dominator on February 23, 2019, 2:02 pm

Yep as Mr Pip says – I blow a gasket when anyone argues with Math.

You ask how to qualify a shooter and then when we give you a mathematical proven way you dismiss it. You said that betting on a random roller will lose you money in the long run, and that is "mathematically" true, but you got upset when you missed out on a roll by a random shooter that would have made you some money.

Do you see the hypocrisy of what you are asking? Make up your mind. The 5-count will qualify shooters "mathematically" so use it if you want to bet on random rollers – OR – don’t bet on anyone and don’t get upset when you miss a long roll that will happen albeit very seldom

Dom

PS I do love your questions though and know you are a great guy!

Posted by: Cotton Lob on February 23, 2019, 3:37 pm

I watched a guy next to me make six points last night. His repeat numbers would have been perfect for the COME bet. I use the COME on myself but am stuck in my old ways when betting on others. The COME absolutely works on any consistant roller. It was late and I was really tired and you know about that tired rule. If the dude is throwing dollar chips in-between his rolls and making stupid horn bets you can count on rolling SEVEN. Just wait for the dice to come around to you.

Posted by: Finisher on February 23, 2019, 4:31 pm

On that 73 roll you should have made money and not lost much with one come bet till it wins then repeat . You would have less then 30.00 at risk I think unless the min were more . Just try it with less at risk but with some for you can NOT win if you stay out of game . I would hope that after 5 count you had 60 more numbers to win that one come bet . So I would think you had a good chance to win it . But if not then O well you tried . I have sat with a come bet on the 6 for 30 or more numbers and did not win it but other times I have won 3 or 4 come bets one at a time also . You just never know .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Dominator on February 24, 2019, 1:19 pm

"Cotton Lob" wrote: The COME absolutely works on any consistent roller.

The whole thing about come betting is not that it works – but IT REDUCES THE HOUSE EDGE AND IS THE BEST BET YOU CAN MAKE BECAUSE OF THAT FACT.

Dom

Posted by: billythekid on February 25, 2019, 10:47 pm

Hey Lou,
I once watched a shooter have a 66 roll hand and didn’t lose a dime!!
Guess why. 😆
BTK
PS to everyone. The reason that we teach the 5 count is to give students a way to avoid betting on all shooters as they have been doing all along. By reinforcing this it will often show them the error of being a gambler while still allowing them some action. The original thoughts about this were that you might be able to fool the pit people into thinking that you were playing all and giving you a rating that reflected that which in turn could increase your comps without increasing your losses. I don’t believe that this is as likely to happen as often these days as it may have happened in the past because so many casino personnel associate this betting technique with our shooting style. I could be wrong but don’t think so. Even though I believe that using the 5 count may lower my potential rating I use it anyway because it is a sound way to lower my losses on other shooters while keeping me interested in the game.
I have no problem if people want to tweak it a little to suit their game as long as they know that whatever you bet on unknown and untrained shooters will, in the long run, end up costing you whatever the house edge is on whatever money that you put in action. This of course can easily be proven with math and can’t be denied, except on YouTube where everything from craps to cancer cures is the REAL DEAL.
🙄

Posted by: Dominator on February 26, 2019, 1:01 pm

Absolutely correct Billy!

Dom

Posted by: Loucifer on March 4, 2019, 12:22 am

Hello Everyone,

First, I would just like to say that I never write my posts to intentionally upset anyone! There is way too much negativity in the world already, so why would I want to feed in to it more?

Now, I do realize that I have a different perspective on things and yes from time to time I like to share ideas that go against the grain. At the end of the day we are all trying to play this game to the best of our ability. Knowing "why" one believes what they believe helps to strengthen their confidence in their choice. Plus new ideas are what makes the world go around.

Lately, I have been doing a lot of research into Dr. Joe Dispenza. He is a truly fascinating man, and I think that some of the GTC members here would be interested in his work. Specifically he talks a lot about how your personality creates your personal reality, how you can use your mind to heal yourself, and how to tap into the quantum field. When you pair a clear intention (electric charge) with a higher emotion (magnetic charge) such as love, joy, gratitude, etc it literally creates an electromagnetic field that attracts what it is that you are thinking about to you.

Hence, part of the reason for this post. Somehow, my thought life reverted back to the familiar past / predictable future and I missed a huge opportunity in the uncomfortable unknown.

For anyone who is interested, this is the first video that started me down the rabbit hole…

https://youtu.be/La9oLLoI5Rc

Now with regard to the 5-count.

I do not doubt for a second that the 5-count eliminates 57% of shooters. I met the late Dr. Don Catlin at the 2005 Gamblers jamboree in Windsor, and I enjoyed his articles for Casino City Times, his work in "How long is a roll, part 2" is a corner stone to in my craps philosophy.

http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/artic … art-2-1232

I completely respect the math of the 5 count and I have no issue with it.

However…

It is not enough for me! I want to eliminate even more shooters.

I have never been a "gambler". I do not have bad habits that I need to break. I am not itching to get into the action.

I started off on a trip to Reno in 2003 for work training. Like a tourist, I played Blackjack and I knew nothing about the game! After $600 I conceded that I got my butt kicked. I then picked up Knock Out blackjack and became a card counter. My person best was winning $300 in less then an hour with a $5-$25 spread. I had four pit bosses watching me! Counting cards is a lot of work, for a little positive edge. Then one day at the MGM Grand in Detroit I saw a guy at a craps table who was literally floating his dice gently down the table instead of picking them up a flinging them. I then I researched dice control and the rest is history.

So all of that to say, I am looking for a protocols to go above and beyond the 5-count. What are everyone’s thoughts?!

For example I do not bet if:

*they are not consistent with their throw
*they are not setting the dice
*they are not in a calm or happy mood
Etc, etc

Sincerely,
Lou

Posted by: Finisher on March 4, 2019, 5:51 am

That is what I would call your 8 count and that you are looking for a 10 count or better . 😀 5 rolls and a little more helps . Those 3 were great ones . Hope to hear more . 😀
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Dominator on March 4, 2019, 3:21 pm

"Loucifer" wrote: Hello Everyone,

First, I would just like to say that I never write my posts to intentionally upset anyone! There is way too much negativity in the world already, so why would I want to feed in to it more?

Now, I do realize that I have a different perspective on things and yes from time to time I like to share ideas that go against the grain. At the end of the day we are all trying to play this game to the best of our ability. Knowing "why" one believes what they believe helps to strengthen their confidence in their choice. Plus new ideas are what makes the world go around.

Truer words were never said! People have stopped talking to each other and debating one topic over another. Name calling is the operative norm now. I said it before and I will say it again. I love your posts Loucifer and they don’t upset anyone.

You are absolutely right, you will lose on a random roller in the long run because every bet has a house edge. The three items you listed could be used and I don’t have a problem with anyone NOT betting on a random roller at the table. If you can get away with not betting, by all means don’t bet because you will lose in the ling run….But if you don’t bet on anyone, you got to accept the fact that you MIGHT and I emphasize MIGHT miss out on a big roll. You can’t let that upset you

Dom

Posted by: sevenout on March 6, 2019, 3:39 pm

I keep thinking of Joshua in War Games with regards to random rollers. The only winning move is to not play the game.