Ran across this on the internet. Interesting:
Try this very simple test.
If I offered you the choice between the following two bets,
which would you take?
Bet 1; toss a coin. Heads, you win $75. Tails, you lose $50.
Bet 2: roll a die. A six, you win $750. A 1,2,3,4 or 5, you lose $100.
So which would you choose?
Or would you prefer not to take either?
If you chose the coin toss, or declined to play at all,
then you are not risk-intelligent at all.
If you chose the dice roll with some internal conflict,
or after making a calculation, you are risk-intelligent.
If you chose the dice roll instantly, intuitively with no internal conflict
or conscious calculation, then you are very risk-intelligent.
Let me explain the logic.
These three possibilities have been set up so that their mathematical
attractiveness is inversely proportional to their psychological
attractiveness.
Bet 1 has an expected value of $12.50; put another way,
if you played it repeatedly you would on average win $12.50.
Bet 2 has an expected value of $41.67 – more than three times as attractive.
Not playing, of course, has an expected value of zero.
Replies:
Posted by: Preacher on January 4, 2019, 11:54 pm
In working for the Department of Defense and for Fortune 100 companies all my adult life, I’ve taken every personality test (also called Temperament Surveys) that exists, usually as part of Team Building exercises. The best of them all is the D.I.S.C. Temperament Survey. I even had my wife, RollTide4Ever, take the D.I.S.C Temperament Survey on our first date, and shared mine with her.
Her sister is a High C, which is the temperament of most Engineers and Librarians, for example. That temperament is very risk adverse. You are not likely to find them at the Craps table. There are exceptions, like NoFieldFive, who, I am pretty certain, is a High C. They are also very detail oriented, as is NoFieldFive. It’s so apparent when you hear him talk about craps. It also makes him a great instructor.
I’ll toy with my High C sister-in-law during a Monopoly Game. I’ll offer her a great trade, such as two Green properties for Park Place with $1000, giving both of us a monopoly. I know she’ll say no, because she just can’t bear to risk her money or property. So then I’ll offer her the reverse, “Ok, I’ll give you my Boardwalk for your green property and $1000.” She’ll still say “No.”, showing the anguish in her face. Her brain knows it a good deal, but she can’t overcome her risk aversion. We all laugh at that, including her.
Most people are risk averse, at least 60% of the population. So, I like your “Risk Intelligence” test. I’m adding it to my repertoire.
Posted by: Skinny on January 5, 2019, 5:34 am
My sequence of scores characterized me in the following way:
You have a strong inner motivation to influence people and circumstances. You thrive on competitive situations and challenging assignments. The stresses and pressures of everyday work and life are unlikely to reduce your effectiveness and enthusiasm.
I guess that seems to fit and it explains why I like craps and controlled shooting.
Now as for the test that 7X7 posted, there are a couple of different ways to look at it to see which is better. My first impression upon reading the test was that the roll of the die was the optimal choice. But then I checked it out mathematically to confirm my feeling.
In 36 rolls of the dice one can expect to win 6 X $750 = $4,500 and lose 30 X $100 = $3,000 for a net win of $1,500.
Flipping a coin 36 times one can expect to win 18 X $75 = $1,350 and lose 18 X $50 = $900 for a net win of $450.
Clearly throwing the single die is the best way to go.
If you want to figure out your expected win on a per trial basis one needs to divide the net win by 36.
Bet 1; toss a coin. $450/36 = $12.50
Bet 2: roll a die. $1,500/36 = $41.67
Another way to look at it would be as follows:
For every 2 tosses of a coin one can expect to win $75-50 = $25. 6 tosses would yield an expected win of $75
For every 6 rolls of the die one can expect to win $750 once and lose 5X$100 = $500 for an expected win of $250
Again the toss of the die provides the highest expected value.
Posted by: Dominator on January 5, 2019, 12:45 pm
Dom
Posted by: Dr Crapology on January 6, 2019, 12:58 pm
Rose and Doc
Posted by: Preacher on January 9, 2019, 3:29 am
Interestingly, I usually can’t stand working with people with my dominant temperament style. I thank my military training early in life, which forced me to keep my natural tendencies under control and to respect the strengths of people with other temperaments.