So I was at the craps table last night, and this guy walks up to the table. I immediately get the vibe that "he knows something that the rest of these poor saps don’t." I decided to watch him closely.
He gets the Dice and you can see that he at least attempting to influence them. His toss was mediocre at best and sadly it was easy to see that the only practice he does is shooting at the table under the gun. Needless to say, that tends to be a very expensive lesson.
Now it is his turn to bet on the Chicken Feeders and his secret weapon is the Doey-don’t!
Hooray!
Those Free Odds bets have 0% house edge, he is surely guaranteed to win now!
On a 6 or 8 he would place odds on the Pass and on everything else he would lay odds on the Don’t.
I looked around to see if the Pit Boss was calling to the supervisor to have an emergency meeting with the shareholders because surely this guy was about to bankrupt the casino! If they had flashing red emergency lights and sirens that dropped from the ceiling now would be the time to pull them. With 0% house edge, surely the casino’s days were numbered and it was only a matter of time before this guy was a millionaire.
Expect…
That is not what happened at all.
He went on to lose 2/3’s of his buy in and never once won one of his "Free Odds" bets.
Why is that?
Is he just unlucky?
Or is there some hidden mathematical force that is chewing through his bankroll?
He eventually switched to just playing the pass line and that helped him tread water long enough to get the dice back.
He had just enough money for a pass line with odds and placing the 6 and 8. He was going for broke. I could see that he was in a panic now, and rushing through his shot. He could hardly wait for the playoffs to be done so that he could get the dice back.
Lo and behold he starts hitting some 6’s and 8’s. Instead of recuperating his initial investment he decides to spread to the 5 and 9 and pressing up everything. Needless to say it was 8 rolls and we know how the story ends…
I never like to see anyone lose! I posted this tongue in cheek because it amazes me that people cannot recognize a losing bet when they see one. Once again, Free odds prove to be not free. Very few people understand the true math of this game, it is criminal.
Doey-don’t be a victim…
Sincerely,
Lou
Replies:
Posted by: Preacher on December 28, 2018, 3:32 am
However, I know of some who use the Doey-Don’t on Bubble Craps with no odds – not to make money, but to make points and reward credits based on the sum of both bets. You only lose on a Come Out 12, of course, so it can be a cheap way to build points and reward credits. It’s been a long time since I played a Bubble Craps machine, but I think I remember one machine did not allow Pass and Don’t Pass bets at the same time. If I ever get a 100x Rewards Credit multiplier, I might just do that.
Posted by: Loucifer on December 28, 2018, 3:25 pm
I am not familiar with bubble craps so I cannot comment on that.
As long as you are not attaching odds to this system I am happy. However, if you are using odds then you are inviting the variance monster to come snack on your bankroll. My advice is: Don’t do it!
Thank you for commenting on these posts, I greatly appreciate the dialogue!
Sincerely,
Lou
Posted by: Finisher on December 29, 2018, 6:36 am
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂
