First of all, you need to understand that at times, Scooter can be quite full of sh**.

Second of all, that doesn’t apply here! I’ve seen it in practice and I’ve seen it in live play. Our recent outings to Laughlin and then our home court where he threw very nicely, brought out Scooter’s (to me) proven ability to target numbers. I’ve really only seen this in live play by 2 people, Scooter being one. Not that he can call out numbers, but it’s more about the consistency in the number of rotations that leads to repeatable results. I’ve only noticed that a few times in all of my own sessions and can’t repeat it myself….. yet, but it’s more often that not when Scooter is shooting. Through practicing together, usually when I’m working from home and can afford a lunch time practice session, we’ve discussed our strategies, and I know what to expect when he’s either set a certain point, or has a lot of $$$ on one. I specifically look at his set to confirm my betting. If he’s set a 9 or 10, I bump my bets up on those two and confirm he’s setting for them.

So first, and I’ve discussed with him, you notice that his 4/10 and 6/8 sets are inverted. He sets 2’s/5’s up for the 4/10, but sets inverted for 6/8. At times, I’ll notice the results are inverted more, and at times, I’ll notice they’re straight up as set on top, but again, it’s the consistentcy of the rev’s on the dice that I bet into. Granted, it’s not every time, but I’ve come to know his shot and see it much more often than not.

I really enjoy shooting with Scooter and it gives us a better chance at having a successful session if we’re both there. Now, if I could only retire and play more!

This is a great opening post, and worthy of discussion. I want to congratulate you on your great 63 hand roll!

Transposing a set to it a certain number IF your shot is consistent is something that can work BUT I have a lot of problems with it. Let me say first that I can’t remember the last time I did this after establishing a point. More on that later. Now my problems.

It takes at the minimum 5000 trials to gain any statistical analysis. 108 trials really doesn’t mean anything. So what happened in the trials doesn’t prove anything and shouldn’t be used. Remember that the object of this game is to avoid the 7 not making points. So that is my first problem.

Next, I can’t even begin to tell you how many times and how much money I have lost when some of the people that I shoot with transposed the set they were using to make a certain number to hit the ATS or something and they threw a 7. F that! Throw numbers and keep holding the dice! Your mind goes away from just throwing the dice to somewhere else when you transpose. Don’t think when you are throwing, just throw and make a good shot.

Now the fire bet – don’t even think about it till you are going for the 6th number and then maybe on the comeout roll set to hit that lone number. The same with the fire bet. ONLY do this on the comeout roll so if the 7 shows because you changed or transposed the set it will not hurt you.

Dom

Scooter,

You are on to something. Its probably because you are consistently single pitching on axis that gives you those predictions. But I guess if you want to prove it you have to use 5000 for each hardway Set as recommended by Dom and report the distribution results.

I also like the 36 roll practice session break-ups

-Mr PiP

If you believe you are really good at hitting hardways, here is a wager you might want to consider instead of the fire bet. With "The Big Enchilada" you will only use one set and stay with it. Click on the following link:

The Big Enchilada

Skinny,

I was all ready to argue something completely different, but I’ve never read The Big Enchilada before. I like it, even if I’d only parlay half, but still something to think about. Again, I’d only do that on a few people, not even myself. I’m not there yet.

Scooter and I talk about our thought process quite often and he even presses me to target, but I refuse to change my set but instead target in my head. But Scooter does indeed have success in targeting, so next practice session, maybe today, I’ll set aside some $ and play with this.

I understand his thought process and it’s rarely about the fire but on where he has more $ on the table. I know that if his 10 is loaded up, he’ll go for that and I’ll bump mine up if need be.

I’ll report back on the Enchilada.

Clarification is needed in what I was trying to convey in the last post.

IN THEORY – if you use a hard way set (2×2), throw it the same way every time (arm swing, velocity, landing area, rotation, …) you should get the same results every time. Same goes for the 3×3, 4×5, 5×5.

The previous comments suggested that the amount of sample size was insufficient to validate that theory. I agree that sample size is too small. But what was missed or not conveyed properly is that this theory and initial observations has been tested out over the last 5 years I’ve practiced on my own table (practicing 45 minutes a day, 5-6 days a week, for 5 years).

The second clarification is that the approach when coming to the table is not to pursue the FIRE BET. Avoid the seven and make money. Pursuing the fire bet is a not the main purpose. It is a side benefit. In the course of throwing you make three points. You need one more to reach the lowest level of the fire.If one is above average at targeting numbers the odds/probabilities have been reduced. (Yes I also agree it is a high vig in the casino’s favor for a random shooter).

Let me pose a example – you use the 5-count, you have your pass line and two come bets established. Doesn’t it make sense to target hitting those come bets instead of just throwing and hoping you hit the bets you have working?

Most of us GTC-ers feel confident in our shot and bet into it. I’m confident of my ability to target numbers and bet into it having practiced for over 5 years.

Again apologies for not conveying sample size and approach to the table.
Scooter

Sorry but no it doesn’t make sense to target numbers. Everyone should throw dice with "an empty mind" – that is no thinking just do it.

I can tell you this, our great instructors don’t target numbers, myself included. We just try to throw a perfect shot

Dom