Bman,
So, are you playing the $30 six and eight on every person if they make it through the 5 count? Just trying to figure out from your example if you are taking that into account when you are figuring out your comp dollars. I guess if you are first to shoot then maybe they have you in the computer as betting $60 even if you back off on random rollers.

OK, I could say don’t play for comps but who am I to talk. I am a place bettor on myself and one come bet with single odds on random rollers although I do not bet this way because I am thinking about comps at all.

"brothelman" wrote: Okay it has benn established that come betting no matte what your edge is better.

My question is about the bottom line.

So if I place the six and eight for 30 each my comp value is almost 4 times as much as if I had 2 ten dollar come bets with 20 dollar odds considering almost all places no longer rate odds.

Bottom line with the pace bets I will earn around 12 dollars comp value for the hour of play, versus 3 dollars of comp value for the come bets, nine dollars more inn my pocket.

So over the period of the hour will I lose more than that nine dollars?

Not using the 5 count.

lts say we get 50 rolls in that hour by todays standars that is a lot.

First of all I know you realize that comps are based on a percentage of your expected loss. While the exact formula for comps is a closely guarded secret, I have read that the return is usually between 30% – 50% of your expected loss (theoretical loss).

The expected loss on a RR if you place the 6 and 8 for $30 each is approximately 91 cents.
The expected loss on a RR for two $10 come bets with $20 each in odds is approximately 28 cents.

When you say the comp value for the place bets is almost 4 times as much for the come bets that is because your expected loss for the place bets is almost 4 times as much as for the come bets.

By any standard the 50% return is a most generous comp formula and probably not one that is found in many casinos. But for the sake of demonstrating my point, I will go with the extremely charitable 50% return for comps.

With the place bets you can expect to lose 91 cents with a 45 cent comp value at a 50% return for a net loss of 46 cents.
With the come bets you can expect to lose 28 cents with a 14 cent comp value at a 50% return for a net loss of 14 cents.

You may be earning 4 times more in comp value but you can expect to have a net loss that is also approximately 4 times greater, 46 cent loss vs. 14 cent loss.

Using your example of $12 in comp value vs. $3 in comp value, let’s look at the full picture under a 50% return and 30% return.

When you earn $12 in comp value from a 50% return on the place bets, you had an expected loss of $24 which nets out to a $12 loss on the place bets.
Earning $3 in comp value from a 50% return on the come bets would come from an expected loss of $6 for a net loss of $3 on the come bets.

That is with the generous comp rate of 50%. If the casino only returns 30% of your expected loss the results would be even worse.

You would earn $12 in comp value on the place bets if you had an expected loss of $40 at the 30% return rate for a net loss of $28.
You would earn $3 in comp value on the come bets if you had an expected loss of $10 at the 30% return rate for a net loss of $7.

By using your example of $12 in comp value vs. $3 in comp value, here is the complete picture:
With a generous 50% return in comp value you can expect to lose a net of $9 more on place bets than on come bets, $12 net loss vs. $3 net loss.
With a more realistic 30% return in comp value you can expect to lose a net of $21 more on place bets than on come bets, $28 net loss vs. $7 net loss.

You can not beat the casino at the comp game. They have it all figured out.

That is the Bottom Line Answer to your Bottom Line Question.

Skinny—a magnificent answer to the comp question. Thanks for taking the time to post this.

Rose and Doc

An excellent analysis Skinny. 😀
That is why we should never play for the comps.

NFF

And that is why I loved when you gave me those math problems at lunch Skinny! 🙂

Excellent and thank you!

Dom

I have to echo everyone else’s thoughts. What a great analysis Skinny. I guess the bottom line is to play to our advantage with no regard to comps. In the final analysis, I would rather have more money in my pocket (by losing less when the dice aren’t kind and playing to my edge) than looking like a high-roller with free rooms and meals. In the long run, it is probably cheaper to pay for the rooms and play your game.

Thanks for being such a big part of this board and for taking the time to provide us all the mathematics of this game we love.

B-man, I think that was an excellent question. Gave me a few things to chew on for sure.

Great question Bman. Thanks Skinny for the math.
As Paul Harvey would say ‘ And that’s the rest of the story "

Doc, when I took my first class, placing the 6 & 8 was acceptable. I favored that bet because you only had to hit either number once to collect. Also way back when, I ran a $30 place bet on the six up to $600 with a pull & press and hit it. I did that twice, first & last. 😎 The past few years I’ve switched to come betting. The math says it all.

Catch you later!

Thank you Skinny now lets take this a step further.

I have an srr of 7 how much can I expect to win off of a 60 eight place bet, also how much can I expect to win off of a come bet 10$ flat and 50 odds with the same srr? in sixty rolls?

By the way the current ratio of comp value is 10% of actual loss and 30% of the theoretical loss.

Source of info two separate outside independent hosts hosts

"brothelman" wrote: Thank you Skinny now lets take this a step further.

I have an srr of 7 how much can I expect to win off of a 60 eight place bet, also how much can I expect to win off of a come bet 10$ flat and 50 odds with the same srr? in sixty rolls?

With an SRR of 7 and a $60 place bet on the eight you would have a positive HA of 8.3333%. Your theoretical win on this wager would be $5.00. In sixty rolls your theoretical win would be $42.86.
With an SRR of 7 a come bet 10$ flat and 50 odds you would have a positive HA of 9.4907%. Your theoretical win on this wager would be $5.69. In sixty rolls your theoretical win would be $48.81.

So the theo win would be 69 cents more for the come bet.

Playing a sixty dollar eight for sixty roll or about one hour you will generate about 18 dollars in actual comps,

A ten dollar come bet with 50 dollar odds on the eight for 60 rolls would generate 8.40 in actual comps.

The eight has a house advantage of 1.68 if I remember corectly1.68*60=1.008 theo loss times 60 rolls total theo loss60.48 now the hose allows a host to comp up to 30 % of the theo loss that is how I arrived at my figures.

Please remember that there is no house edge on odds so they are not counted into theo any more, well unless the boxman loves you.

So the place bet receives ten dollars more in comps if the host chooses to give it to you.

Now remember this is only betting on the controlled shooter who has the srr of 7.

When I compare these two play I still really love the fact the your positive house edge on the come bet is so much bigger

The HA on the eight is negative 1.52%. Thus the theoretical loss on a $60 place bet is .0152 X $60 = $0.91. That would be per decision, not per roll.
The HA on a line bet is 1.41%. No HA on the odds so they don’t count towards theoretical loss. Thus the theoretical loss on a $10 line bet is .0141 X $10 = $0.14 per decision.

You then multiplied by 60 for 60 rolls. But that is actually 60 decisions which is very different from 60 rolls. But I can work with decisions a lot easier than working with rolls. So I will modify my answer based on decisions.

With an SRR of 7 and a $60 place bet on the eight you would have a positive HA of 8.3333%. Your theoretical win on this wager would be $5.00. In 60 decisions your theoretical win would be $300.
With an SRR of 7 a come bet 10$ flat, 50 odds you would have a positive HA of 9.4907%. Your theoretical win on this wager would be $5.69. In 60 decisions your theoretical win would be $341.40.

Since it will probably take about the same amount of time for 60 decisions on the place bet as it would on the line bet I think it is fair to use a 60 multiplier to calculate the comp value of each bet.

Comp value of place bet would be 60 X $0.91 X 30% = 60 X .91 X .3 = $16.38.
Comp value of line bet would be 60 X $0.14 X 30% = 60 X .14 X .3 = $2.52.

So the place bet will generate $13.86 more in comp value. But the line bet with odds will generate $41.40 more in wins.

If we want to look at the HA on a per roll basis you would use the following numbers:

The HA on a place bet on the eight is 0.46% per roll. The theoretical loss on a $60 place bet for 60 rolls would be .0046 X $60 X 60 = $16.56. A 30% comp value would yield $4.97 in comps.
The HA on a line bet is 0.42% per roll. The theoretical loss on a $10 flat with $50 odds for 60 rolls would be .0042 X $10 X 60 = $2.52. A 30% comp value would yield $0.76 in comps.

With an SRR of 7 it would take approximately 3.5 rolls to resolve a place bet on the eight. In 60 rolls you would get 17.14 decisions on the place bet. Your theoretical win would be 17.14 X $60 X .083333 = $85.71.
With an SRR of 7 it would take approximately 3.33 rolls to resolve a line bet. In 60 rolls you would get 18.01 decisions on the line bet. Your theoretical win would be 18.01 X $60 X .094907 = $102.56.

Thus on a per roll basis you can expect to earn $4.21 more in comps on the place bet. But the line bet with odds will yield $16.85 more in wins.

Wow Skinny—what a great post to this thread. Rose and Doc really do like come betting and now we really do know why it is best financially. Thank you.

Thank you Skinny.

No matter how hard I have tried to prove that come bets have some form of disadvantage I could not, at every turn you have showed that they are far superior in every aspect of the game.