Craps

my response to a student's problem with the come out 7

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Hi all

Below is a give and take from an email I received from a student about the feeling that she gets when she has come bets out on the table and on a comeout roll the 7 shows. I believe that it is important for everyone.


Replies:

Posted by: Dominator on September 8, 2016, 10:53 am

Hi Dom,

The half table is great. Thanks again. I was at Harrah’s Laughlin this past Labor Day Weekend killing time before dinner and rolled the Small, Tall, All. I had a dollar on each for me and also a dollar each for the dealers. My last 2 numbers uncovered was the two and twelve. I got the 2 and the next roll was a twelve. The All payout on a dollar is especially nice., especially when the Tall and All are being paid on the same roll. . The dealers were extremely happy also. I managed to roll the point on the next roll (9), which was lucky, as I was stating for a 10. Unfortunately, I rolled a 7 on the come out and all my Come Bets odds came down. I always hate when that happens, as it’s like we are starting all over, but at least it’s not a 7-out.

Looking forward to seeing you and your team.

Linda L

Good morning Linda,
Yes I have you in and I look forward to seeing you again!
Well that is just great shooting! I have to say something about your comment of hating when all your come bets come down after that 7 on the come out. I look at that as a good thing – a Christmas gift – all that money is back in my rack and I start over. How many rolls later after that come out 7 did you 7-out – It really is a good thing and you should try to look at it that way
Dom
Hi Dom,
Thanks for your reply. I know you always say a 7 on the come out is like a Christmas gift. I am always glad to get my odds back, but I always feel like I would have rather had a box number rolled, with a come bet on it, instead of a 7, of course. Also, since the original come bets are lost when the 7 is rolled on the come out, it’s like paying admission to a show I didn’t really want to see. But I do understand your point, and I guess it’s a better time to roll a 7 than after the point is established.

Looking forward to seeing you all soon.
Linda

The other thing to think about with that come out 7 and something I always say to myself and my team mates, that "it’s all about timing!"
It is all about timing – what that 7 showed. If it showed one roll prior you wouldn’t have the dice back in your hand. So if losing the $60 on the base bets bothers you (assuming $10 table), on a come out roll calculate what you have out there and put that amount or a portion of that amount on the passline. You have a 2 – 1 advantage on that roll and you don’t have to take max odds on that pass line bet.
See you next week and we can discuss this more at the seminar. This betting thing is as important if not more important than the throw. It will make you or break you
Dom

Posted by: Dr Crapology on September 8, 2016, 12:27 pm

Here is another thought on the 7 showing on a come out roll when you lose the base bets and get back the odds bet. If you are in a lengthy roll you may be getting a little tired when that 7 appears. This may be an indication of the fact you are tired and another 7 might happen quickly and you still have all those odds in your rack. Don’t get greedy. Right after that come out 7, Rose and Doc always start over as if it is the first roll of our turn–which in a manner of speaking it is.

We look forward to seeing you soon.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: sevenout on September 12, 2016, 4:59 am

I was thinking the same thing as Doc and Rose.

The point is that I threw a 7. The fact that it was on a come out roll is just luck, it was still a 7 that I wasn’t trying to roll. It could be just a bad bounce, but more likely something is getting a bit off in my grip, toss, or release. If I had place bets up, all of them would be at greater risk (in my mind) after a come out 7.

Getting the odds back is almost like calling off your bets because something just doesn’t feel quite right.

Posted by: the gman on September 20, 2016, 8:42 pm

Doc.

When the discussion led to the loss of $60 on the flat bet, that would assume the
player had a come bet up on each number .

Do you suggest that is the way we play is take come bets until every number is covered???

thanks

gman

Posted by: Dr Crapology on September 22, 2016, 3:09 pm

Gman,

Getting a come bet on all 6 numbers is where we eventually want to be, but (and that is a big BUT) when we get to come out bets on all six numbers we are a little more conservative. In our humble opinion protecting your bank roll is a most important goal for an advantage player.

We always go for 3 bets working (pass line and 2 come bets) and sit on those 3 numbers. When one hits we will have only 2 bets working–either we make our point leaving 2 come bets on the table or we will win a come bet and have a pass line and one come bet on the table. In either event we will try for a third box number.

Now the BIG SKINNY as Skinny wrote, it will allow you to go to a 4th bet after one hit. We are more conservative so stay at 3 bets. If we hit a 2nd payday we are doing pretty well as that bet will come down and we have 2 paydays and 2 bets working–we are a little over break even.

Once we get to 3 paydays we will come bet until we get a 4th bet on the table, with hopefully a couple of repeaters giving us a nice profit. Now it is "peddle to the metal" with a come bet on each and every bet. Hopefully we will get all 6 numbers covered and have lots of off and on throws with the dice on the way to covering all numbers.

One thing I hate is to have 2 quick pay days and aggressively go with come bets on each roll of the dice, but we only have 2 pay days and then the come bets so to a 3rd, 4th or even a 5th number and the ugly devil appears–we lose 3,4 or 5 bets. What appears will be a good roll in the beginning may turn to crap–pun intended. Again protect your bank roll.

We know we may well miss a few pay days by not placing a bunch of box numbers beginning with the second roll of the dice, but a quick 7 out can put you in a deep hole from the "get go." Example—a $10 pass line with $50 odds and $60 placed on the 6 and 8 with a quick 7 and you are out $180 (Texas Math which I assume is the same everywhere). It may be a while before you get the dice back and you lose a little more on chicken feeders. It’s a bad feeling and hurts your ego and confidence.

Once we get to max odds, we will double dip. We know the vig on the 5 and 9 (if these two numbers are double dipped) is a big 4% on these place bets (but not so bad on placing the 6 and 8 or buying the 4 and 10) but we are ahead and want larger wins at this point. Yes we can increase our come base bets and increase our odds but that is a little more confusing. However with that in mind, should we have a come out 7 after making a point (as discussed in a prior post) we will at that point increase our pass line/come bets so we can move the place/buy bets to odds. Winning a come bet with $10 and having it replaced with a $15 is something we need to practice at home so it becomes a little more automatic for us. We will post as we work on this.

Hope that gives you a little insight as to how we bet and why.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: the gman on September 22, 2016, 3:36 pm

Doc

Thanks Doc, I knew you would have a reasonable answer, you always do.

My concern is and was that on a board like this there are well positioned
highly skilled players and many newer less skilled players. At times when
we discuss betting methods with more exposure many of the new players
are going to do that just because the excitement gets ahead of the skill
level.

gman

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on September 22, 2016, 4:12 pm

I can’t figure out why come bettors don’t hedge the come out roll with $3 each hopping the 7 in this case. She only had $50 at risk and not $60
because she had no come bet on the nine as it was the point. She would have taken in $55 and using that to buy the base bets back leaves her a net loss of $1. Maximum loss of $9 if a point rolls and $19 if a crap number comes. If she had had a come bet out when she made her point then she would have had the $60 at risk. The post is not clear on that. This still seems like a reasonable risk to me.

No matter who is at the table, and by that I mean come bettors, I set for 7’s on the comeout and roll 40%+ 7’s on average. I am betting to my advantage and virtually no one at the table will hop the 7’s with me. If you’re not hedging the come bets it is just tough shit for you. Just don’t be
pissed at me for setting 7’s and then rolling one.

OMC

Posted by: brothelman on September 22, 2016, 11:00 pm

OMC are you saying that 40% of the time you throw a come out 7 and that is what you set for?

What set do you use after the come out?

Posted by: Butcher on September 26, 2016, 3:25 am

I don’t get it. If you can set for the seven and have a success rate of 40% why not use something like the 2v or 3v and protect your flat bets? To each his own. If I’m on the table with someone who is a come bettor who sets for the seven on the come out and I know this I will hop the sevens with you. I guess this is why it is good practice to talk with your fellow dice controllers before going to the table. In practice when I am on the table with fellow GTC players I watch how they bet and I can get a fair idea of what they are trying to do. Just my 2c.

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on September 26, 2016, 6:00 am

brothelman,

The answer is yes.

Butcher, I rarely throw with other advantage players. Most people , in my experience, don’t even understand the game.
I was really trying to address Linda’s loss of her base bets and hoped to offer a decent alternative. I imagine the question for Linda is
"are you playing with random players or advantage players?"

OMC

Posted by: brothelman on September 26, 2016, 7:59 pm

40% on axis face hits that means 2 out of every 5 throws are a hard way, correct?

What is your srr with such a accurate throw?

Posted by: Finisher on September 28, 2016, 1:39 pm

Bman That was a great assumption that both dice rotate together . They may be on axes but not hard ways .Just a thought . I see the dice stay on axes a lot with out hard ways which I have not be good at changing yet .that I hated was that was a good 7 do you forget the first class that you took and that was said tooooo much .
That sticks in my mind to this day .I wish all those were hard ways .
Hope all is well with family I am still in Spain with daughter .They use 2 forms of Spanish here which I do not understand either one .But they are helpful .Not like France .
Good Rolling. 😀 😡

Posted by: RFink13 on September 30, 2016, 2:36 am

The come out 7 is like someone telling Mrs. Lincoln, "Congratulations! You’ve won two tickets to the theater."

Dom likes to tell us that a come out seven is like a Christmas gift but on the other hand he says, "If you got the edge, you want money on the table." Color me confused.