Craps

When to quit

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Here’s a topic that I am sure has been discussed in the past but it has been on my mind a lot lately. Whether you are up or down for a session, when do you quit? Here are 2 recent examples of why this has been on my mind.

My bride, Lady Luck and I just spent a night at one of our local casinos. On Sunday night, we simply could not get anything going. We had 4 turns at the dice and neither of us could bring home any bacon. Had the biggest losing session of the year. I might add that the dice were looking pretty good but we just could not get anything going. Got up Monday morning and went at it again. This time the dice were looking good and behaving. Had back about 1/3 to 1/2 of our previous night’s loss. Decided to take the dice one more time each and gave back a good bit of the profit. Ended up making back only a small fraction of our loss, about 20%.

We were up about 25% of our buy-in when we went around one more time. Hind sight is always 20-20 as they say but I am curious how others decide whether to continue playing or either take your losses and leave or take your profits and leave. How much profit/return is enough and how much loss is enough?

I realize there is no set answer to the above but I was just curious what thought process others go through to decide to play or leave.


Replies:

Posted by: HardNine on March 8, 2016, 1:52 pm

Jawbones,

I’m still developing, but I do have an absolute buy-in. I currently go around no more than 3 times, but maybe only 2 if I can’t get the dice looking right. If I win a big hand, I’ll take another shot and walk if nothing happens then. I know the max loss on any given hand, and this keeps me under my buy-in. When shooting with others, it’s a little tougher. I split my buy-in and use a split rail for my bank and GTC & CFers bank. I’ll only transfer $100 more to the "other" rail if my personal rail supports it, but if both are down, I won’t stay. They’re usually balancing against each other….. at least until next, next weekend in AC!!! 😆

To Great Shooting!

Posted by: $$Money Shot$$ on March 8, 2016, 1:55 pm

JawBones,

Excellent topic as this same issue is something I have struggled with in the past. I have stood at the table for 13 plus hours on some occasions. That is complete overkill. I never knew when to quit nor did I set any win / loss limits for myself. This inability to quit and walk away inevitably killed me in the end. The longer you stay at the table, the more susceptible you make yourself to the fluctuations and variations of the game. A contributing factor to me not wanting to walk away is the distance I have to travel to the casino. I am two hours (one-way) away from any casino here in the local Washington, D.C. area. Plus, if you factor in traffic and the multitude of accidents on interstate 95, I’m on the road anywhere from two to four hours before I even arrive at the casino. That doesn’t include the travel time back home after casino play. So if I’m gonna travel that far to play, I’m gonna ensure that I leave with some profit. This has been the wrong mentality to take because I end up staying much longer than what I should and take some pretty risky chances (i.e. Betting the Hardways, Hopping the Sixes and Eights, etc.) in my attempt to make sure I leave with something.

Pain is one of the best teachers. There is nothing worse than putting $100.00 on a Hard 8, hitting it, and then sticking around only to watch the Hard 8 profit be funneled right back into the casino as time and the House Edge reign supreme. I have hit several 5 point fire bets during my first turn with the dice and have found myself unsatisfied. I find myself saying, "Is that it? I just got here? I still want to play?" Instead of realizing that I just won a nice amount of money, which is the main reason for playing the game (to win money). I have learned to set financial goals for myself with regards to my play. There is no more going for the gusto or the infamous "I’ll take just one more turn of the dice." I take the money and run. If I say I want to win two times the amount of my initial buy-in, that’s the plan that I stick with and I will not deviate from it. If I end up winning one times the amount of my initial buy in and I find myself starting to struggle, get tired, and experience a drop in my level of performance, I take my profit and run. I no longer push the envelope and chase. This mentality has saved me tremendously. Therefore, the best advice I can give is to establish realistic goals for yourself and stick with them. Set a loss limit, set a win limit, and remain disciplined. Never chase your losses and be content with your gains. We are in this for the long term as Advantage Players. Yes, losses do hurt and it sucks to travel all the way to the Casino only to painfully watch our money be raked in by the Casino. But never forget, we are Advantage Players and we have an edge. Your skill over time will allow you to recoup whatever you lost and then some. There is no need to dig yourself into a bottomless pit.

Posted by: JawBones on March 8, 2016, 2:27 pm

Thanks Hardnine. I should probably have been a bit more specific about how we play. I have described it in other posts but I think it might help to review it.

When my wife and I play together we share a bankroll. We buy in for $500 each (total session bankroll is $1000). When she is the shooter, she will put out a pl bet with $50 odds. I will then put out a come bet and place $50 in odds. If the 6 and/or 8 is not one of the first 2 bets, the shooter, my wife in this case, will then place the 6 and or 8 for $18 each. If either the point or the come bet is a 4 or 10, the non-shooter will buy the other for $25. That makes our minimum spread $110 if the 6/8 are the PL/CB up to $171 if point/cb is on the 4 or 10 with the other on the 5/9. I hope that makes sense.

Anyway, that is the layout for each of us so after she shoots from sl1, I then take the dice from sl2 and we repeat it. So, after 1 roll each our range of risk is between $220 and $342.

On Sunday night, we repeatedly got our PL/CB and place/buy bets as indicated and then 7 out without any paydays. Our total loss for the night was $809 or 80% or our session bankroll. For the record, that is the single biggest losing session since we have been tracking it. We were up just over $300 on Monday but went around one more time and ended up only up $155.

It is a rare event that both of us have really off night at the same time. Most of the time at least one of us will have a decent hand so our wins/losses are usually in the 100-200 range. Our loss Sunday night took us into negative territory for the year. I have analyzed other stats about our wins and losses but I will save those for another post. But, for the year, we have 4 losing sessions and 10 winning ones but the average losing session is significantly larger than our average winning session.

Posted by: JawBones on March 8, 2016, 2:48 pm

Great reply Ten Man. Excellent advice. By the way, I am looking forward to the day when I hit 5 points to the fire bet on my first turn with the dice! Hasn’t happened yet but I am optimistic.

Posted by: HardNine on March 8, 2016, 3:04 pm

JawBones,

I can’t recall where you shoot most of the time. What are the odds limits?

You play together pretty much how I play individually. My max risk on the roll whether it’s place or Come with $50 odds (or 3x4x5x in those mean places) is even with yours, around 160 to 180 and either SO or you recoup on the following rolls.

I too early on had not one but two $800-$900 losses, and it’s not fun digging out of those holes. Of course those were the earlier days where the foolish betting and inability to walk were more in play. My edge was too small to put those bets out, and my play on others was not smart.

I may not have a huge edge yet, but I do play smarter.

Loving the journey!

Posted by: JawBones on March 8, 2016, 3:31 pm

HardNine we play at a couple of local casinos. The one we like the most is a $5 table with 10X odds. Another we play at less frequently but also enjoy is a $5 table with 25X odds. On a crowded weekend night they used to open a 2nd table at $10 but that has now been replaced by a Crapless Craps table which I won’t play. Finally, the 3rd most common local is a $10 table with 100X odds. Don’t go there much because I would rather play a $5 than a $10 table when possible.

We don’t ever make any of the ploppy bets. Don’t do hardways, horns, or any of the center table bets. I will occassionally put $1 bet a Firebet or Sharp Shooter when my bride is shooting to encourage her but even that is rare. The bets I mentioned in the post above is what we do.

On a good roll, after 2 pl hits we increase the odds to $75 for 2 hits then $100. On $5/10X odds table we increase the pass line bet to $10 to go to the higher odds. After 2 come bet hits we spread to a 2nd come bet and then add a new one for every new come bet hit. Kind of like The Big Skinny but a little less aggressive. On the place bets, we go up a unit ($6) for every hit.

JBones

Posted by: getagrip on March 8, 2016, 4:10 pm

I don’t know if I have absolutes exactly but here are a few things that I pay attention to in casino sessions.

(1) I have to pay attention to physical tiredness when I toss because I am not as young as I used to be and my legs get tired. Depends on other bodies at the table but I usually toss three to four hands as long as my dice look like winners. If dice are bad maybe just one hand. I don’t like to adjust at the table except really small things. It gets to me mentally if I have to adjust too much while in play. Also, need to know the difference between adrenalin high and tired body. You can have both at the same time.

(2) See #1. Have to pay attention to how the dice are really looking and not fool myself by saying they are good when they are not.

(3) once I am ahead and especially after a big loss at a previous session, I check my chip count. If I have won enough to use my normal betting on the next hand without going into "buy in" territory then I will stay for another hand. Also need to make sure #1 and #2 are met if I am staying for another hand.

Sometimes when I want to stay too long I argue with myself mentally to make myself quit. I tell myself that I have enjoyed the "meal" but I don’t need to lick the plate. I can enjoy another Craps meal again later. Used to know a kid who always licked his plate and I found it very disgusting. Once I get that yuck image in my mind I have no problem walking away. That has saved me a few times!

I don’t think we should ever worry that we haven’t taken every last dime we could have taken from the casino. Be a winner and enjoy it and don’t worry about if we could still have made more. The longer we grind against the casino the more likely they are to take money back. Even as an advantage player this is true.

Posted by: JawBones on March 8, 2016, 8:26 pm

Getagrip your post has much wisdom in it.

"I don’t think we should ever worry that we haven’t taken every last dime we could have taken from the casino. Be a winner and enjoy it and don’t worry about if we could still have made more. The longer we grind against the casino the more likely they are to take money back. Even as an advantage player this is true."

I love that statement. It is indeed a grind. Dom has stated that to me on multiple occasions. It often seems that we take one step forward and 3 steps backwards. My initial question was not so much about feeling bad that I left and could have made more but rather more like I stayed to throw one more time and nearly always give some back. Not sure if I have lost focus on the last hand but it is very rare that we decide to stay for one more hand and actually make more money than we had before we threw the last time. And conversely, when we have not had good success after 3 hands, even if the dice look good, when we stay for a 4th, the loss only compounds. It is not always 4 sessions but I think you get the main idea I am trying to convey.

At our practice sessions at home, we nearly always use chips. Very often if we have had a few sessions and are down, we go around once more and it’s not unusual to have that big roll and end up with a nice profit. In casino live play, however, that last attempt to turn around a not so good session almost always makes it worse.

I realize this is something that we all have to work out for ourselves but I was just curious how others handle the when to stay/when to leave issue.

Posted by: Dr Crapology on March 8, 2016, 9:03 pm

Jaw Bones, We can’t really add much to what has already been said. We have played with you and the bride on several occasions and we note you both are conservative and pretty much bet the GTC way with low house edges. We can only say set your limits–up or down–and take a break.

We hope to meet up with you soon.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: JawBones on March 8, 2016, 9:13 pm

Hey Rose and Doc. I am not so much looking for concrete answers really but more of a discussion of how others decide when to keep playing or call it a night. We have changed our betting a bit after a private with Dom. He suggested that we use the betting method that we are now doing and it has worked out really well (except for Sunday night which was an aberration).

We’re hoping you two can make it out to Cincinnati for a few days so we can hit out favorite watering holes. We will be in Vegas for the September course. So far I haven’t been able to talk Lady Luck into taking a Refresher but I will be doing the Elite Video on Friday and the Advanced over the weekend. Works out great for us timing wise because my national association is having its annual meeting in Vegas starting the Monday after the course so I will just come a few days early and kill two birds with one stone.

I always appreciate the input that both of you provide for us all. It is a journey, indeed. And a fun one at that!

JBones

Posted by: MIDNIGHT on March 8, 2016, 10:52 pm

I can tell you this! My local casino is a 2 hour and 15 minute drive for me. Last week, I left my house early and was at the tables by 8:30 am. My goal was to leave by 3:00 and be home for an early dinner. I was with a fellow GTCer at the table. After two times around the table, we were down a little when John comes out with a whopping 40ish hand nailing the 8 both soft and hard. I had quadrupled my buy in and it was only 9:30am. I cashed in and left and went to work. At that point, how much better was I hoping to do? And I certainly didn’t want to give back any profits, especially with the AC class right around the corner. Hope this helps answer your question. Sometimes you need to be happy with a win and not be greedy.

Midnight

Posted by: Finisher on March 9, 2016, 5:43 am

BEST answer quit when you are ahead no matter what .
I play WAY toooooo long .
The closest real casino is 3 1/2 to 4 hrs away . Use to do day trips but to old for that any more .So stay the night 1 to 3 comp .I cant remember Ever paying for a room in a casino .But have given back more then have received .
I try to limit my losses to 1/2 bye in .
Then again I have a lot of one last roll that ended good to great .The pressure is off by then since it is last roll no matter what . I really like it when I decide it will be the last roll and am up and it ends a good roll too .But that does not happen as often as I would like .I try to stick to that decision more now then in past .
On my last trip I broke my rule one time and went past my loss limit .I hope not to do that next trip but did have winning sessions with all others .They ranged from 3.00 over bye in to 285 over bye in .
Do to age and Meds may take 2 breaks before get dice back some times .Eat 2 meals while there and at table most of the rest of time .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: sevenout on March 18, 2016, 4:53 am

Too many times have I had a small profit and decided to try one more hand. Almost always ended up with a small loss.

Now I feel any win is a good win, whether it is $5 or 5 times my buy-in. Many times I have gotten back to even and decided to color up and it a win. I forget who said it (Dom, Billy, Frank?), but I am trying to win more by losing less.

Posted by: JawBones on March 18, 2016, 9:09 pm

Well said seven out. I agree wholeheartedly! We are trying to get comfortable with leaving with a profit, large or small, even if we have only handled the dice once. Our biggest problem seems to be trying too hard when we are down. There have been many times when we were down after 3 hands but felt if we threw one more time we would be OK. More often than not, it just makes the loss bigger.

We only do that when the dice are looking good but the results have been less than stellar. We are working on accepting the small loss and coming back to play another day.

Thanks to all who responded. I always like to see how other GTC’ers address issues we all face at times.

jb

Posted by: getagrip on March 18, 2016, 9:54 pm

Something I use more times than not when I have a small win is this. Hope I can explain well enough to have this make sense.

Suppose my normal starting hand is a $50 outlay on bets. Say I have played several hands and I have a $20 profit from those hands. I won’t let my self start another round unless I have $50 over my "come to table" bankroll. So with a $20 profit I am done and walk away.

Now say after two hands I have a $60 profit. I want to toss again. I can do that if everything else falls into place such as dice look good and I am physically up to it, and table conditions are still good. However, I can not use more than the $50 for my initial betting and on this hand I will never dip into my buy in. I can play with the $50 and increase it if I have a good hand again but I will never go into negative territory to add odds, etc. This is very conservative play but it does allow you to walk with at least small wins and it does build the habit of not going back into negative territory once you are in the black. Just another thing to try at home practice and see how it works for you and of course tweak it to fit your own starting bets and bank roll.

By the way, if I had a $60 profit I would also probably still walk but again that is me being conservative.

Dice are Out!

Posted by: Finisher on March 18, 2016, 10:48 pm

Have you gotten away from those 25.00 tables . Last time I saw you you were going up to that min. amount . That has been some time ago . How time fly’s by .I am still at the 5.00 or less if there are any out there .
That sounds like a good plan . I like a win is a win no matter how big or small .
Profit on every session would be great .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: getagrip on March 18, 2016, 11:52 pm

Finisher,

I still like the $10 and $15 tables but will play a $25 if that is the only one with good enough conditions for my play. I should actually play the $25 more as that makes me super alert and I only engage in excellent betting on $25 tables. My husband plays now as well and I am not sure his play warrants $25 minimums yet and also that higher table makes him nervous. Since both of us are playing on one bankroll the $15 seems high enough for now. Went 6-2 on sessions on our latest trip to Vegas with the two loses equaling a two digit loss and our 6 wins equaling a four digit win. Didn’t break the casinos by any means but won enough to be satisfied with the trip.

Nothing wrong with $5 tables if you bet well on them and walk with a win. It’s all relative! 🙂