Hi All
Playing around and seeing students shoot the dice I get proud of the way they shoot, but then I get depressed at the way they bet. I am not talking about betting the fire bet or hardways. I know and billy and I talk about this in our betting seminar that betting hardways is something that can make you money in some goes at the craps table. What I mean is that sometimes you are just on, hitting primary numbers.
But where most of the students that just aren’t making the money they should off their throw is when the bet the hard 6 every time the establish a 6 as a point, or the8, or the 4, or the 10. You are just throwing your money down the drain.
Or how many of you are using the 5-count on random shooters or even on your friends? Not many I am guessing from what I see and hear. Amazing and sad to me. Are we doing something wrong in the way we are teaching betting? We obviously are not doing anything wrong in the way we teach the throw because the throws that I see look good, but all is lost with the betting.
Ask yourself and be honest with yourself the simple question … "Am I making as much money as I should with the way I am throwing the dice and when I go to the casinos?" If that answer is no, then ask your self if you are using the 5-count and if you bet a hard 6 every time you establish a 6. If that answer is a yes, you have your reason why you are still losing.
Is this just a matter of the old saying …. you can lead a horse to water, but not make him or her (politically correct), drink it. Or can we at Golden Touch sell the idea of proper betting better?
Dominator
Replies:
Posted by: getagrip on January 28, 2016, 1:47 am
First, let me say that I took the GTC classes prior to any betting being taught. I know that I should come back for that portion of teaching and will some day when I can. The 5 count was taught when I took the class.
1st question–hard six on myself is almost never since I don’t hit a lot of primary faces with my toss. Secondary on axis hits are my game. Don’t feel like I am missing a thing there with no hardway betting.
2nd question— 5 count, do I use it? Yes, but not as religiously as I should. Admit that I feel a little funny at a fairly full table and not betting. My solution is to play at times that tables are sparsely populated so random rollers are not there to bet on. Need to get better with the 5 count use.
Let me just say that I don’t think discipline can be taught and I think betting does come down to discipline. I am sure you all teach the very best betting and people can learn from it but it is up to each individual to use it or not.
I think it is admirable that you are asking for suggestions in teaching a better betting class and I hope you get some ideas I would guess though the fault really isn’t with the teaching but with the individual discipline—including my own.
Dice are Out!
Posted by: HardNine on January 28, 2016, 3:26 am
On the Hard 4,6,8,10, I often think of your line used in a recent class; "I’ve got my hardway right here on the line". I apply this and as you’ve taught, only bet it when your/other controlled shooter’s dice are on fire on that hardway. I think about the very first time I played at Paris back in 2009. I’d watched friends play, but it’s always different when you’re really on the table. The crew gave me "advice". "Point is 9, you should bet a hard 4". That’s the superstition, and I laugh every time I think of it. Now, I say "WT_?!" Not betting the hardway is easy, you taught a certain fellow Bone Crusher in my primer when you gave her $10 for her hardways bets and of course she quickly ran out of money.
The 5 count, however, is a never-ending lesson to get us to stop neglecting it in those situations where we feel we know better or "feel it". Just keep pounding it into us and we’ll eventually get it! As getagrip noted, it’s not the what or way you’re teaching. It’s the point at which we choose to follow. Most of us get it and follow it to a very high %, others choose to ignore the betting and just want to know how to shoot the dice. Again I go back to a student during the live play in my primer. I don’t think it was a primer student, but you sternly made the point during his betting on himself and others. It’s his choice to bet like that despite the math. GTC instructors drill it in every chance they get. Keep doing it, it’s the only chance we’ve got!
Now how about betting my Hard Nine?!?!?!?! 😀
Posted by: Dominator on January 28, 2016, 4:38 pm
So I am going to throw out two more things about the 5-count, one you might try that might help in using it all the time and 2nd what to do if you are using the 5-count.
First, one of our students used a $25 green chip. He always bet about $25 on ever shooter to begin with. So he decided to use the 5-count and when the shooter wouldn’t make past the 5-count he would put a green chip in his pocket. What he found was that he was loaded with green chips at the end of his session.
Second, those of you that are using the 5-count, are you using a come bet as your bet on the 6th roll. We advise using a come bet because on that very first time you put out the come bet you have an edge over the house. So you got tho things going here for you if you use a come bet ….
#1… by waiting the 5-count you are eliminating 57% of all shooters at the table so your hard earned money is only at risk 43% of the time. This is a fact that is documented by billions of sims that Doctor Catlin did for us. Not some charting system that advertises that they have won 378 X’s out of 400 sessions.
#2 … by using a come bet on the 6th roll you are making a bet that you have a mathematical edge over the casino. The are not very many bets in a casino where the player has the edge.
Dominator
Posted by: DoughBoy on January 28, 2016, 4:58 pm
Posted by: Philham on January 28, 2016, 8:25 pm
I do make hardways bets when a hardway is my point. But, I also make hardway numbers with some frequency. That is just he nature of my toss. Now, Dom you have made me feel guilty.
Posted by: Dominator on January 28, 2016, 10:05 pm
Waiting for a few more comments to make some other points.
Dom
Posted by: HardNine on January 29, 2016, 12:56 am
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on January 29, 2016, 6:41 am
me some wins. Most of my friends I also 5-count and advise them to do the same on me. There is one exception, isn’t there always, I set for the 7 on the
comeout and roll it over 50% of the time at home and very close to it at the casino. So I hop it on the comeout and press when I hit. Many of the guys who know me do it on me as well. I only need 30% to make a few bucks.
No hardway bets for me as I use the 2V. I am a very cautious bettor. Too conservative for my own good. I have been this way since 2008 when I first
encountered GTC.
I do not follow GTC 100% and probably no one else does either. But, 95% of your teachings in my mind are the correct way to play craps. I consider myself
one of the "faithful". The students that do not bet correctly or at least close to GTC teachings are only kidding themselves that they are advantage
players and I do not believe that GTC can be blamed. I know Dom takes it to heart like all of us who teach. Dom, this is not your shortcoming but I do
wish I had an answer for you.
OneMoonCircles
Posted by: Dominator on January 29, 2016, 6:14 pm
As I stated in the other thread by Getagrip, I am there to win on my roll.
Dom
Posted by: brothelman on January 29, 2016, 6:41 pm
Posted by: Butcher on January 30, 2016, 2:58 am
Posted by: Dominator on January 30, 2016, 2:31 pm
"Butcher" wrote: I think sometimes when I get tired, frustrated or just lose focus I tend to fall back into my bad habits with my throw as well as my betting. One thing I do is I have a 3×5 card with things I want to keep in my mind when I play and I use it to go over those points prior to hitting the tables. If I notice that I am not playing well I will step away, pull out my card and make sure I am not shooting myself in the foot by making dumb bets or not focusing on my throw fundamentals. Works for me.
I love this idea!
Dominator
Posted by: Finisher on January 30, 2016, 11:21 pm
The instructor said nothing about his betting but I did get that he did not like what he was doing .
It is hard to get out of bad habits when you have been doing them for years . I started rolling dice in the 70 s when there were only 3 casinos in Laughlin . Now I think there are 13 .
I never use the 5 count but most of the time I miss long rolls on CFers do to not betting on them .I just put out one bet on them usually after 7 or 8 rolls or even more then if win may put out a come bet to get out on 2 numbers .
As far as putting that green chip in my pocket that would leave me with my bank roll in my pocket and nothing to bet with when my roll came . 😀
I will give it a try with whites instead and let you know . 🙂 🙂
Now IF I see how the roller rolls and like how they roll I may change my betting a little .But it does take a lot to change my betting since taking the class .
Keep up the great job you and others are doing its a journey and GTC is getting BETTER AND better .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: the gman on February 2, 2016, 3:32 pm
we take classes to make money on our roll, and by definition then if we lose
money our roll is not real good or not played correctly.
If you have a good advantage and your afraid to bet, (me) your not going to make money,
if as you say you bet every silly bet on the table, you cant make money. If you make
$200 on your roll and spend $400 on the slot machine, you cant make money.
Having said all that, it also has to be said your practice table is not the casino
table, your practice time is not casino time. If you record your work at home
and find where you have an advantage, you cant possibly understand if that
advantage carried over to the casino table unless you record the rolls you have on a
casino table. (at least until you see if your advantage carried over).
Over-betting an advantage or betting an advantage you don’t have (on that table)
is going to cost you dearly.
gman
Posted by: Dominator on February 2, 2016, 3:53 pm
Dom
Posted by: TheLion on February 2, 2016, 7:49 pm
Our (me and the Princess) weakness is our betting strategy. Both of us have had some unbelievably long rolls (my longest is 75) and we’re not winning as much as we should. We’ve also hit numerous fire bets. Our initial spread is very low and that helps us …. but, it also hurts us. We need to get out of the $12 SIX and $12 EIGHT mentality. The two of us play as a team — split the wins … split the losses.
HOWEVER, the biggest issue for us is living in the Mid-Atlantic area where the table conditions are horrible (not counting AC, NJ — that’s a different animal) — plus, the casino that’s 20-30 minutes from the house, I need to commit a federal crime (or 2) to afford it
I can go on and on for days …and type until I have carpal tunnel
I’d love to talk about this much more in depth at the AC, NJ open house the end of February.
Posted by: NickatNight on February 2, 2016, 7:55 pm
I do, on my throws go to the hardway and i really do bang the hardways. But, as Dom said the return on investment might just be in my head.
I do get more aggressive on the guys I play with often. I do use the count on randoms and you all know that the win for you really shows on the random shooter in the 5-7 count.
Another note: Dom hits it on the head when he says when at the table we are all proud of fellow GTC tosses but then we start to slit our wrists when the betting falls apart. thus the question–Are we teaching the importance of betting and how you will WIN more and LOSE less?
Anyway, I like this thread. Makes ME want to improve more on my betting—Mostly, sorta, kinda. We all need encouragement. Me too. thanks Dom and fellow GTCers that comments.
See ya all at the table. Good fortune in and out of the casinos.
Posted by: Dominator on February 2, 2016, 8:06 pm
Dom
Posted by: JawBones on February 4, 2016, 3:34 pm
We each did a private with Dom a few months ago and in discussion with Dom at that session we changed the way we bet just a bit. Each of us has an SRR of 6.5 with about 6000 recorded rolls so I feel it is fairly accurate. We used to play the Big Skinny but changed it up after our private.
Here is what we do now assuming we are playing together (it changes only slightly if I am playing without her). If I am shooting, I will do $5 PL bet with $50 odds. She will place a come bet after the point is established also with $50 odds. If 6 and or 8 is not covered, the shooter (me in this case) will place the 6 and/or 8 for $12 each. That makes our initial spread a maximum of $134. Of course, when she is shooting we do the opposite; she does the PL and Place bets if needed and I do the come bets. If we just happen to have both the PL and CB end up on the 6 and 8 then we place a second CB. We always want at least 3 numbers covered.
For the place bets, we will do a pull/push strategy meaning we take the first hit, press the 2nd, take the 3rd, press the 4th, etc until we have $60 then press $30 each hit from there. After 2 hits on the CB, we go to a 3rd and increase by 1 new CB for each hit from here. After 2 passes, we will increase the PL bet to 10 on the 10X odds tables and make the odds bet $75 and go to $100 with the next pass.
For random shooters, we 5 count always and then do a $5 CB with $10 in odds. This is where we make our biggest mistake mathematically. We really should go to $20 or $25 odds based on our initial spread but I hate losing on CF’ers. I will add that is equally disturbing to miss out the occassional big roll by a random shooter but that’s the way it is. Finally, I play often with a group of friends who are not GTC’ers but are pretty good for random rollers. For them, I will go out on the pass line up front with $10 odds and then after a 5 Count will increase the odds to $25.
Since we have been doing this strategy, we have won more often and more money than we have lost so our 401g has a very gradual but definite upward slant. That is a very good thing. When we played our version of TBS we had to get 5 paydays to be in profit. With our new method we are in profit after 2 hits. 3 hits if we have place bets on 6 and 8.
It is working very well for us. Thank you Dom for the personal instruction and betting help.
Jawbones
Posted by: Dominator on February 4, 2016, 8:27 pm
one thing in the post when you talked about random rollers and how much you should spread according to your spread. What you said is true but:
1. Betting less on a random roller is always a good thing. What I said was that is the max you should bet on a RR
The way I have told you to bet will show a graduale upswing. The big upswings will be when either you or your better half have that 40 or more roll! 😉
Dom
Posted by: JawBones on February 4, 2016, 8:38 pm
Planning on seeing if the streak continues this weekend. Got to practice a bit first.
I have a general question that I realize will be difficult to answer but, assuming we are practicing well (doing all the fundamentals) and regularly, what would be a reasonable length of time to see our SRRs start to rise. I keep reading posts here of SRR 8 or more. After nearly 7K rolls recorded (I don’t record all of my rolls, sometimes I just play to practice betting and don’t record them) my SRR is a solid 6.5. I would sure like to see it go up above 7 to get a better edge on my bets. We never do the ploppy bets. I may rarely throw out a $1 hardway if Lady Luck’s point can be made that way just to encourage her to hit it but that is a very rare occurrence.
Thanks
Posted by: Dominator on February 5, 2016, 1:40 pm
Next – how long does it take to get there – well in anything and lets use the exaample of losing weight, which I am trying to do 😀 , the weight loss at the beginning is great, but then it really slows down to maybe 1 pound a week having the same eating and working out habits. The same with this … it is going to be slower as you move your SRR up. So not to worry.
If you or anyone continues to bet into their edge, making the right bets that they can over come, and using the 5-count on random rollers again making at the most 25% of their pread on a random roller, the GTC student will become a winner, although it might be a slow grind.
A slow grind is not a problem because all of use have a day job and the money we make at the tables just adds to our income. As I said previously the big increase to the BR will come with the 40+ rolls. My guys and myself will always say after one of us has a 26 hand roll that yes it was a good roll but just 10 more hits and it would have been a BIG money maker.
Remember slow and steady wins the race!
Dom
Posted by: HardNine on February 5, 2016, 4:26 pm
I am so with you Dom. Unfortunately, I thought I was better than I was far too early. I thought I was a pro after my primer, and bet accordingly. You can dig a pretty deep hole when you have issues with your shot, let alone foolish bets on CFers and not 5 counting your compatriots. I get that now that I’ve been told for the 4,352nd time. That’s all it took!
I have tracked my rolls since before my primer. I got a table 4 months before and have created new players for every position I practice from and every time I take a class. For instance, from 1st refesher, I tracked 15675 rolls, on axis was about even and test score of 86%… not good, but primary hits was good and at 16%, double pitch very good at 0%, SRR 7.2 and test at 0%. Realizing that this is practice which isn’t the same timing or pressure as in live play, I’m not going to expect 7.2 in live play (OK, maybe I did back then). But what I see is that I’m rolling over one of my dice too often. I’m not getting the 7, but getting off-axis box numbers and perhaps too many craps like ace-deuce.
After my absolutely stellar Video Elite and 2nd Refresher in Shreveport last August, I created new players and collect my stats to practice and compare a couple of things Finesse wanted me to check out, and once settled, created my new player to record every roll since last Sept. I still have a rollover issue that is apparently even more pronounced, so I am now trying to solve and may reset my rolls again to see if there is improvement. I’m currently at 9509 rolls, on axis tests at 93% so a bit below a random, but primary hits are way over and testing at 0.04%, and double pitch is well under and testing at 0%. Overall SRR is 7.51 and tests at 0%.
So my work at hand, I suppose and Dom, others please comment, is to get the on axis corrected. I don’t believe that SRR is the only measure, we need good on-axis. Can we win with high SRR and off-axis? Yes, I suppose so, but SRR will likely go higher if we’re on axis, yes?
I’m digging out of my hole with some good and very good sessions since December, so there is truly some very positive growth I’m seeing. I read every post, love getting involved in the threads and most of all, love learning from each and every one of you. We may not all agree on some things, but hopefully agree that winning is fun!!!
Posted by: JawBones on February 5, 2016, 4:37 pm
To reinforce what you teach in the courses, the betting sessions and our time with you personally has done wonders for our results. We only make the bets we have the edge on. Sure, we have losing sessions and an occasional losing trip but our equity curve is definitely tilted in the positive direction. Betting makes ALL the difference!
Thanks for taking the time to respond to this and all the other threads.
Dennis
Posted by: Dominator on February 5, 2016, 9:42 pm
7.5 SRR over the rolls since December is very good and should give you some good wins expecially since it has finally hit home to bet properly:)))
Dom
Posted by: Skinny on February 5, 2016, 10:47 pm
Since you are having trouble with on-axis throws I am wondering if your dice are landing flat? When they first land or after they come back after hitting the wall do the dice kick off to one side or another as opposed to landing flat, gently touching the back wall, coming straight back together and quickly settling after hitting the wall? If they go off to one side instead of straight to the wall and straight back off the wall that is an indication that the dice are landing on an angle instead of landing flat on the table, parallel to the back wall.
For a right handed thrower shooting from SL the most common error is to "hook" the hand inside on the backswing and round house the throw. At release the left side of the fingers are higher than the right side and the dice land at a tilted angle causing them to bounce (roll) off to the left side of the table. It would be reversed for a left handed throw from SR with the dice rolling to the right.
One way to determine if this is happening is to glue two dice together and throw them. If they are not landing flat to the table it will be easier to see because one side of the two dice will hit the table before the other side. For a right handed shooter it would most likely be the right side of the two die hitting before the left side of the two die.
To correct this problem, one needs to concentrate on bringing your hand straight back and straight forward. That way the fingers will be parallel to the table and back wall at release. Imagine a set of railroad tracks along the path of your hand. You want to keep your hand inside the tracks on the back and forward swings. Don’t let your hand hit the tracks during the swing.
At first it will feel awkward and even seem that you are swinging your hand to the outside on the back swing. Eventually it will feel normal and you will be able to repeat it consistently.
Please let me know if this is your problem and if this helps you?
Posted by: HardNine on February 5, 2016, 11:23 pm
Actually, it’s the opposite. My dice, when not flat are lower on the left side and kick right. I’ll pay more attention to what’s going on there.
Thank you, good sir!
Posted by: Skinny on February 6, 2016, 3:24 am
Okay, that is good information. It means when the dice are coming out of your hand your fingers are not parallel to the table and back wall. Your pinky is higher than your index finger, your hand is tilted with the right side up and the left side down.
Most likely you are twisting your hand outward towards the dealers as you bring your hand forward. Perhaps you are consciously trying to bring your arm up and forward but are unknowingly twisting your wrist as you bring it forward trying to reach out to your target.
It is the exact opposite of what I said is the most common problem but it is still a problem never the less. It needs to be corrected.
Try the exercise I mentioned about gluing a pair of dice together. It should make it easier to see the dice landing on an angle and also easier to try to correct the problem.
Good luck and let me know how it works out for you.
Posted by: HardNine on February 6, 2016, 3:35 am
Don
Posted by: Berto on February 6, 2016, 12:40 pm
To go back to your original post, I want to address the question of why you (GTC) isn’t succeeding at teaching good betting. You’re working against powerful forces here.
[list][*]Players arriving at a GTC class are rarely people with little experience in the casino. They already have bad habits that you’re working to undo.[/*]
[*]Gambling is addictive! What you’re saying is analagous to "stop drinking after you’ve had a couple." Some people just won’t be able to stop themselves.[/*]
[*]We’re still cavemen in our brains. We are wired to remember that time we found a whole bunch of berries and how we found it. Hardway bets prey on that predisposition. Nobody has control over it. [/*]
[*]The converse is that you only remember the really bad things (eating those red mushrooms made me really sick!). Craps is rigged so that losses are usually incremental and your brain forgets those.[/*]
[*]We’re also wired to notice patterns to make sense of the world. We see them even when they aren’t there. "This guy always throws the yo." "Turn off my bets, that guy didn’t ask for same dice." The big signs over the roulette table – completely meaningless, but hmm, looks like a red is coming![/*][/list]
Give yourself some credit. You’re fighting neuroscience, biology and superstition. That you’ve succeeded at teaching any of us to be more disciplined means that you’re hitting your mark.
edit: I’m pretty disciplined, but here’s a great example of how even the best taught people get suckered: I’ve noticed in 2016 that now that I’m not betting inside numbers all the time, my status points aren’t racking up as fast. I’m going to lose my Diamond privileges in March at this rate. My desire to be one of the "Casino Cool Kids" has made me think of betting more loosely to keep that status…
Posted by: Finisher on February 7, 2016, 1:35 am
I find that I get LITTLE points playing . Must be my low bets and NONE on CFers .
I also am loosing my Diamond status do to them raising the level that you need to be . We now play on one card till we make it to Diamond .It was nice when we both were diamonds .
I found that if you take a rest room break you may be taken off the system and forgotten about . So I ask if they still have me there when I get back .If pit boss change your play may also change . It use to be the power of the pin but now it is the power of De-lite .
I ask myself do I want to loose on my roll or some body else ?
GTC has changed my way of betting that is for SURE . 🙂 🙂
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: Berto on February 7, 2016, 2:10 am
The most important concept, to me, is that each time you shoot is a trial in the lifelong game with you at the center of it.
If I think long-term while I’m betting, I stay away from the risky stuff unless things start to go really well. My border of risky stuff is the place bet on the 5-9. It takes me a long time to get on there — I have to have won a lot of quarters.
Places on the 5-9 are what make you points in the "casino status" game, actually.
Posted by: Dominator on February 7, 2016, 6:07 pm
Dom
Posted by: HardNine on March 1, 2016, 12:06 am
Your original "question" in the bigger sense has had me thinking. I’ve always had this other side thinking about the bets themselves during class but haven’t found the way to express them, and not sure I’ve done it here. I know what the math says, but my brains says these types of things….. DON"T YELL, just saying what my brain goes through in this whole process:
If I can hit a 4/10 on a vig on the back end, I have the same chance of hitting it with a vig on the front end; or "worse", I can place it for 10 to reduce risk, then buy for 20 on the first win (netting -2) then to $35 and so on. Granted that requires more hits and may be against the person’s edge, but wanted to offer that up. This type of argument can be made against several of the other bets. Perhaps I set and made the 5, but didn’t have a Come bet up… why not (because I’ve hit it already) place the 5 for $25 of the $85 just won until a Come goes up?
It’s the argument of the pure math of each of the bets vs. the chances of hitting a given number if you can understand what I’m trying to say. This, along with the points Berto and others made, can also be what you’re fighting here when teaching the betting side.
We can discuss in AC if you’d like, but hoping you’re getting what some folks may be thinking….. or it’s just me!
Don
Posted by: Finisher on March 1, 2016, 2:24 am
I don’t do the 5 count . I do the feel bet . Which worked out good this trip . Feel it bet it if not don’t bet .Most of the time I was the only one not on the pass line .
Half the time I tried a new system which I know no system works .But it did make me a little more then I thought it was going to .
It still has to do with how you feel tho .
If a CFer rolls a 6 or 8 for the point I place the other .
If his point is any other number I place a come bet .
One bet made if I feel it . ( which is that he is going to roll for awhile . ) Keep that up till I win 2 times then press till roll ends .No pass line bet so some times it goes back and forth which gets to me some times .But I do wait till I get the win . I have seen were my one bet went back and forth 4 or 5 times I did not win .
Also have seen were my bet just wins one time for 1.00 win in 20 or 30 rolls .
That is when it gets hard .But it all goes back to how I feel .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: Skinny on March 1, 2016, 6:43 am
"HardNine" wrote: Dom,
Your original "question" in the bigger sense has had me thinking. I’ve always had this other side thinking about the bets themselves during class but haven’t found the way to express them, and not sure I’ve done it here. I know what the math says, but my brains says these types of things….. DON"T YELL, just saying what my brain goes through in this whole process:
If I can hit a 4/10 on a vig on the back end, I have the same chance of hitting it with a vig on the front end; or "worse", I can place it for 10 to reduce risk, then buy for 20 on the first win (netting -2) then to $35 and so on. Granted that requires more hits and may be against the person’s edge, but wanted to offer that up. This type of argument can be made against several of the other bets. Perhaps I set and made the 5, but didn’t have a Come bet up… why not (because I’ve hit it already) place the 5 for $25 of the $85 just won until a Come goes up?
It’s the argument of the pure math of each of the bets vs. the chances of hitting a given number if you can understand what I’m trying to say. This, along with the points Berto and others made, can also be what you’re fighting here when teaching the betting side.
We can discuss in AC if you’d like, but hoping you’re getting what some folks may be thinking….. or it’s just me!
Don
HardNine,
I know you asked Dom this question and I expect he will answer as well. But I really like your question. It is possible you have gotten to the heart of the answer to Dom’s original question. My congratulations to you for asking the question. It was brave of you to do it and you did a good thing by explaining your position. From my point of view you have given me some insight into what some folks think. You have also given me the opportunity to address this type of feeling.
Now you asked Dom not to YELL and I will not do that either in responding to your post. But I am going to ask you to do the same when reading my response 😀 . That was just a joke. I really would like to know if you understand my response and if it will have any impact on your thinking because I hope I can change your opinion on this subject.
First of all I am not going to say you should never buy the 4/10 when the vig is paid up front or place the 5/9 because of the high house advantage (HA) against it. However, I have specific conditions that must be met before making those bets. I will get to that at the end but for now I want to address your question.
If I understand you correctly I think you are saying your chance of hitting a 4,5,9 or 10 is the same regardless of the payout or vig to place or buy the number. Therefore why not just make the bet since your chance of winning the bet is not going to change based on the payout or vig? If I am misinterpreting your explanation then please let me know what I am missing.
You are certainly 100% accurate that your chance of hitting a number is the same irrespective of the payout. A random roller can win a buy or place bet on a 4 or 10 one time out of three on average over the long run. He can also win a buy or place bet on a 5 or 9 two times out of five on average over the long run. As a controlled shooter who has practiced and developed your skill, you should be able to reduce the appearance of the seven so that you have a better chance of winning a bet on the 4/5/9/10 than that of a random roller. Thus your chance of winning the bet does not have anything to do with the payout or vig, it is only dependent on the skill you have in reducing the appearance of the seven which translates into your ability to hitting the number.
But the object of your playing is to win money isn’t it? If you are not interested in walking away with more money than your started with, why are you playing?
The amount of money you win is completely dependent on 2 things. One is your ability to hit the number. The other is the amount of money you collect when you win the wager. They are not two mutually exclusive events when it comes to the amount of money you win. Yes they are two separate and different conditions. But when it comes to winning money they can not be separated. Your ability to hit the number depends on your skill in reducing the appearance of the seven and in being able to hit the numbers. If you can hit the numbers better than that of a random roller your HA on those wagers will be more favorable than that for a random roller. But if you do not have a positive HA on those wagers, you will not win money making those bets on average over the long run if you consistently make those bets.
You said, "It’s the argument of the pure math of each of the bets vs. the chances of hitting a given number". To me this means you are saying it is the argument of the HA vs. the probability of winning the wager. As I said before, when it comes to the amount of money you can expect to win you can not separate the two. Your HA takes into consideration your chance of hitting a given number and the amount of money you can expect to win on average each time you bet that given number.
Let me try a few examples to see if I can make my point. Let us look at a buy bet of the 4 for $20 when you have to pay the vig up front. You understand that you can win more money if you pay the vig on the back end but you don’t seem to think it matters too much if you pay the vig up front. What if instead of a 5% vig, it was a 200% vig. In other words, it costs you $40 up front to buy the 4 for $20. When you win you collect $40 and keep your $20 bet so that you break even when you win. If you lose it costs you the $40 vig and your $20 bet for a loss of $60. This is like the joke, heads you break even and tails you lose on the flip of a coin. It does not matter how much skill you have in hitting the 4, you can not make any money making this wager. My point here is to show you that the payout and/or vig you pay really does matter when it comes to the amount of money you win. Yes, your skill in hitting a specific number matters as well but they can not be separated. I have given an exaggerated example to make my point. Now let us look at how it matters in a real world situation.
We know a random roller can win a buy bet on the 4 one time out of three on average. Thus a random roller can expect to win a buy bet on the 4 an average of 6.7 times out of twenty. Let us say you have developed your skill to the point where you can win this wager seven times out of twenty on average. Now let us see how that impacts the amount of money you can win depending on whether the vig is paid up front or on the back end.
You make a buy bet on the 4 twenty times for $20 each. When the vig is paid up front you must pay $1 on each wager. Thus you wager a total of $21 X 20 = $420 on the 4. When you win you collect $60 ($20 original wager and $40 for the 2-1 payoff). With your skill you win this wager seven times out of the twenty times you made the bet for a total of $60 X 7 = $420. You have a net win of $0 = $420 – $420.
Let us look at the same conditions with the vig being paid on the back end. You make a buy bet on the 4 twenty times for $20 each. When the vig is paid on the back end you only pay the $1 vig when you win the wager. You will win seven wagers out of the twenty, paying the $1 vig on seven of those wins collecting $59 ($20 original wager and $39 for the 2-1 payoff less the $1 vig) for each win. You will have wagered a total of $20 X 20 = $400 on the 4. With your skill you win this wager seven times out of the twenty time you made the bet for a total win of $59 X 7 = $413. You have a net win of $13 = $413 – $400.
Unless you can develop your skill so that you can win a buy bet on the 4 more often than seven times out of every twenty times you make the wager, you can not come out ahead in the long run making this bet when the vig is paid up front. But you can come out ahead making this bet every time when the vig is paid on the back end. I hope I have been able to demonstrate to you that you can not separate, "the argument of the pure math of each of the bets vs. the chances of hitting a given number". When it comes to the amount of money you walk away with at the tables, the two are indelibly intertwined.
At the beginning of this post I said, "I am not going to say you should never buy the 4/10 when the vig is paid up front or place the 5/9 because of the high house advantage (HA) against it." I will say you should not make those wagers on a consistent basis if you can not overcome the HA for your skill level on those wagers. But, here are the conditions under which I think it is appropriate to make those wagers.
If you are on a long roll and are well ahead monetarily on the roll and are consistently hitting one or more of those numbers, then I think it would be appropriate to make buy/place bets irrespective of the HA if you want to get more money on the table on those numbers. But it would be in addition to making come bets and putting max odds on the come bets to get and stay up on those numbers as well. At this point in the roll I would want to have a come bet out on every roll so that my come bet with max odds never comes down when I hit a number.
My thinking here is that there are some rolls (not the most common occurrence) where you are in the zone and hitting numbers consistently. In those somewhat rare situations you are throwing way above the HA that you have on average. We know the average is made up of highs and lows. Your individual HA is also made up of those highs and lows. When you are in one of the situations where you are on the high you want to take advantage of it as much as possible. This is consistent with a response I gave to DoughBoy on a different thread. Click Here to see that response.
But you do not know this in advance and have to go with your average HA to determine your wagers at the start of each session. I also want to be ahead in money because it is better for my mental attitude to walk away a winner. I am willing to take the risk that I am going to have an extended roll when I am ahead in order to maximize my earnings on that roll. A seven out is not as devastating if I walk away a winner. Of course, I am not suggesting taking money out of your rack to make those wagers. I would only use future winnings to make the place/buy bets on the additional numbers. That way you do not risk any of the money you have already won.
Let me know if this is of any help to you.
Posted by: Dominator on March 1, 2016, 1:49 pm
When I post an bold or highlight a word in red, I am not yelling. What I am trying to do is make a word stronger and stand out. Remember I am the guy with the "Blue aura" 😆
Seriously, all of you know I am very passionate about what we are trying teach here and to make Golden Touch bigger and better. I love that you posted your question Berto, and to everyone, sometimes I hesitate writing what I really want to say. This happened to me yesterday in a response that I made about using the cross 6 sets. I thought …. maybe I shouldn’t respond because I don’t want to stop anyone from posting an opinion and maybe my response would do that. Then I thought that I had to because I want everyone to understand what we all want to do … and Skinny stated this as well in his response …. WIN MORE MONEY! ….. there I go again with the bold and highlight in red 🙂
Strictly growing business now .. If people win more money because of the teachings of Golden Touch, our business will grow. When I say at the seminars that I believe that only 10% of our seminar students ever really become profitable, I believe it. IMHO, that is a terrible percentage and it makes me sick. I want everyone to be profitable and with that I believe GTC will be the straw that makes this happen.
Dominator
Posted by: Finisher on March 1, 2016, 3:11 pm
If you are come betting I see no reason to buy it with the vig. up front .
I can not think of when I got to were I was going to buy it . But that is just me .
Come to think about it I may have last year one time and did hit it one time at that .Which was after I went up a unite from 5.00 bet to were they asked if I wanted to buy it . I then said yes and got lucky .For it seems that when this happens a 7 shows .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: HardNine on March 1, 2016, 3:11 pm
FIRST.. oh, no yelling either way….. 😀 Skinny and Dom, I love the discussions, and sometimes, folks need some stern talking too, yes? 😀
FIrst, I was referring to more of my own rolls vs. CFers or unknown GTCers. Perhaps a few of those I know on how they roll better, but more on myself.
Thanks for the response… I really need to go to Evelyn Wood Sped Ridden course to get through these long ones!!! I see Dom also responded while I’m writing this, so more to come there too. My response / question earlier is really targeting discussion on how students might be thinking as something you need to overcome during the lectures and other discussions on betting.
On the 4/10, it’s too easy to think of the single roll. Your response brings me back to the bigger picture. In a single roll, my thinking on the front/back vig is that my $1 is only once on the roll, or perhaps a few more as the bet grows. I’m primarily playing in IN where the vig is behind, but definitely thinking ahead to PA next Wed and to AC mid March. Right now, I’m playing with the first buy at $20, then to $35 to max the $1 vig(to the nickel, I know it can go to $39), then to $55 to max the $2 vig, $75, $95 (haven’t gotten there in live play but have at home), $115, etc.
OK, now onto a slightly more difficult topic…. the 5/9. I absolutely understand the math and agree with going with the math when it’s working for me, so I’m testing the math on my rolls at home. My goal is absolutely to win the most I can on my rolls, so I’m always adjusting at home, and play 2 rails for weeks at a time to see where I’m at. On the 5/9, I’ve hit them enough to be where I THINK I’m OK ….. [gulp] placing them for $10 each if they’re not the point. And to Dom’s recent response emphatically urging us NOT to do that, I’ve taken to setting a rail bank only for the 5/9. That rail places the 5/9 for $10 regardless of where the point is so it’s counting only a place win and only when the puck is on. Starting with $100, I’ve gotten that to $1,400 excluding the additional $1,600 I made just on the 5/9 on an epic 67 roll (man I wish that was in live play!). That was the zone you noted in your response, Skinny. I absolutely lose the $20 on some hands, but the first hit which presses that number $5, brings the net to -11 for the pair, and the second either to -2 if its’ the other number, or to +5 if it’s a repeat. Yes, I know I’m looking at them together, but I am hitting them enough to make this profitable. I’ll keep that rail going for my test, which is now at about 3 weeks, 12 hands /150-200 throws per day, so getting to statistical significance. Again, I acknowledge that this is against the GTC betting, and I do not bet this on anyone but myself because the math speaks there for sure.
I do also understand your correction of HA vs. probability of winning the wager. I want to understand my specific chances against the HA, and I also understand that as I advance through this wonderful journey, that those chances (advantages) change and I hope that as it does, that the pure Big Skinny works best. Right now, in my assessment of my rolls, is that I spread the box numbers. There are those rolls where I pound 1 or 2 numbers, but I’m still hitting others, and there are rolls where they spread out relatively evenly. On those rolls, unless they’re much longer, I tend to get to the point of max risk with TBS and SO. With what I’m doing at the moment, I’ve already reduced my $ at risk and at the same point, I’m ahead of TBS. Again, I regularly do rail comparisons of the two, and am starting that comparison again today and am going to run it right through to the moment I head to AC on the 18th, and will also continue my 5/9 rail to see where it ends up on the 18th. I’ll bring my daily log along where I summarize my rolls and $ play along with entering every roll into the roll recorder/Smart Craps. Interestingly there, Ten Man encouraged me to look at Smart Craps, which I hadn’t done in quite a while, and low and behold, it told me to set hardways with T3F5, which I already do! So I’m on the right track!
Skinny, I really appreciate your responses, and will print this one out and read through it several times per day for a few days to make sure I’ve caught everything.
Dom, I look forward to your more detailed response to me…. not Berto :-D. He’s a nice guy and all… 😆
Posted by: JesJac on March 2, 2016, 2:24 pm
Come to NY for a bit and realize when someone yells YOU FUCK at you they are just saying "hello" and trying to make sure you know you heard them. 🙂
Posted by: Scooter on March 3, 2016, 2:37 am
A couple of points to clarify the numbers. 57% of the rolls don’t make it past the 5 count. I believe that number is on random rollers. Isn’t that number less on controlled shooters?
My story – #1 – very rarely bet on the hard ways. Will do it occasionally when in the zone. #2 – have developed the discipline to stay off most chicken feeders or non-GTC-ers. #3 – tend to be more tolerant of risk on GTC-ers and will bet on them without 5 count. I realize I should use it more on my fellow GTC-ers until I see their mechanics are in the zone. #4 – hate going to the table along. My comfort level rises when I’m with my fellow GTC-ers. If I’m not having a good shooting day one of my buds usually do.
Will we ever know that we’ve maximized profits during a shoot?
Scooter
Posted by: JesJac on March 3, 2016, 3:24 am
You will always know that you have not maximized profits during a shoot. To maximize profits during a shoot on each number you would have to parley the bets until the last time you hit the number. Then you would have to take down the odds on that number (as it was the last time you would be hitting it).
So, forget about maximizing your profits and do the best you can expect to do statistically. I know it seems silly but as Berto can tell you, I am a bit aggressive and parley the odds every once in a while assuming I will hit the number again. It is almost always after I have been paid and am even on the hand so it does not hurt much (financially — hurts like hell emotionally) if I do not hit it.
Speaking of which, I will be in town on the 18th to teach on the weekend so it is a good bet I will be there Friday night. Might be more crowded than I am used to it being on weekdays in the afternoons but… Funny thing is, unless my throw is off, I usually make as much or more there than at my teaching engagements 🙂
Jesse
Posted by: HardNine on March 3, 2016, 3:33 am
Posted by: JesJac on March 3, 2016, 3:40 am
Posted by: Dominator on March 5, 2016, 12:52 pm
"Scooter" wrote: Dom,
A couple of points to clarify the numbers. 57% of the rolls don’t make it past the 5 count. I believe that number is on random rollers. Isn’t that number less on controlled shooters?My story – #1 – very rarely bet on the hard ways. Will do it occasionally when in the zone. #2 – have developed the discipline to stay off most chicken feeders or non-GTC-ers. #3 – tend to be more tolerant of risk on GTC-ers and will bet on them without 5 count. I realize I should use it more on my fellow GTC-ers until I see their mechanics are in the zone. #4 – hate going to the table along. My comfort level rises when I’m with my fellow GTC-ers. If I’m not having a good shooting day one of my buds usually do.
Will we ever know that we’ve maximized profits during a shoot?
Scooter
Here we go:
#1 – It is not 57% of the rolls don’t make it past the 5-count … it is 57% of the Shooters don’t make it past the 5-count …. there is a difference. Granted that the syms that were run were on random rolls of the dice, but you must be careful with saying that a controlled shooter may be different. Now I think when you say controlled shooters you are talking about the people that you shoot with and not just anyone that is doing a shot in a controlled way.
Your numbers 2-3 all have the same type of explanation….playing with friends that are attempting to control the outcome of the dice.
Lets look at this because we all have friends that we play with that are attempting to control the dice. Are we sure these people have an edge when they are shooting? Or better yet, is their edge going to show up when we are shooting with them on this particular day? I will use Nick at Night and myself as an example of this.
I play with many of the GTC instructors but I am not on every roll of the dice that they throw. Doc and Rose are a great example. They wrote a trip report this week on their great rolls on their vacation to Vegas … Doc hit 5 to the fire and Rose did her thing as well. They are both great shooters and I would bet on the any day of the week, but only after the 5-count. Why, ….because the edge that they have is over the long run and it showed last week, but I am not on EVERY SINGLE ROLL that they throw. I play with Billy ,Daryl, Mr Finesse, Midnight, all have an edge, but again I will use the 5-count because I am not on every single roll of their dice. Finesse and Midnight played this week and I was busy and couldn’t be their.
Now Nick and I. Nick and I usually vacation together and I would say that 98% of the time we are playing dice together and we are on maybe 98% of all our dice rolls. I will still give Nick a count ….maybe not 5 but when he grabs the dice for his first roll, no bet on my part. If they looked good, out goes a come bet on his second roll … the lowest house edge bet I can make. This works well for the both of us.
Nick knows that I am not disrespecting him by not betting on his very first roll, and I am not disrespected when he does the same. My points here are as follows:
1. I know who I play with who has an edge without a question in my mind
2. I use the 5-count on the those guys and girls that I am not on everyone of their lifetime rolls
3. Those that I play with where I am on maybe 95 – 98% of their lifetime rolls I will wait 1-5 rolls before betting
Domiantor
Posted by: NickatNight on March 8, 2016, 1:27 pm
Posted by: JesJac on March 8, 2016, 1:56 pm
Posted by: HardNine on January 11, 2018, 6:44 pm
Enjoy if you never read it, or enjoy again as I just did.
Posted by: DavidG on January 14, 2018, 2:40 am
Do not know why the 5 Count gets a bad rap on other sites. ON random shooters definitely has Merritt.
On hardways I will get the hard 4& 10 when using the 2- V. A follow up question Dom is how you play it once it hits.
Had a strange hand. Ten was the point and was also playing the 4 using the 2- V. Twenty rolls go by and no hits . Of course getting nervous lol. Finally hit the point and next point is the 4. Did pick up a couple hits on the 10 but did not make what you would expect on a 30 roll hand. Yes playing the Come would of cleaned up. Hindsight
Posted by: Dominator on January 14, 2018, 1:55 pm
"DavidG" wrote: DaveG
Do not know why the 5 Count gets a bad rap on other sites. ON random shooters definitely has Merritt.
On hardways I will get the hard 4& 10 when using the 2- V. A follow up question Dom is how you play it once it hits.Had a strange hand. Ten was the point and was also playing the 4 using the 2- V. Twenty rolls go by and no hits . Of course getting nervous lol. Finally hit the point and next point is the 4. Did pick up a couple hits on the 10 but did not make what you would expect on a 30 roll hand. Yes playing the Come would of cleaned up. Hindsight
The real question is – why is anyone reading other sites? I do go into a rant about this at the seminars because it has merit. We are the only site and teachers that base EVERYTHING we say and do with the math and physics of the game. You will never hear us say things like, we have a feeling, or I am trying to hit a 5 so I set this way.
QUESTION: Is the object of the game to make points or to avoid the 7? Now that is a stupid question – obviously it is to avoid the 7, so why use a set that IS NOT the best set to avoid the 7 when shooting. That is what I mean by reading other sites, their talking points are just plain STUPID~ Nick at Night is the perfect example of this. 2 years ago in Shreveport Nick get the dice and establishes a point of 4 for his very first point. Nick uses the hardway set ALL THE TIME. 64 rolls later Nick throws a 7 out – never making that 4. Do you people think that we made a ton of money on that roll? Of course we did. People, it is all about throwing numbers and avoiding the 7.
To answer your question on the hardways – I only play the hardways about 3% of the time and only when something in my mind is affecting me, meaning I need to get back into the game and concentrate a little more.
Next – Come betting is the way to go as you said David – hope you learned
Great read and great questions!
Dom
Posted by: Repo on January 15, 2018, 3:43 pm
I have proven to myself using a craps game on my phone that the five count works. What better way to pass the time on a transcontinental flight?
In AC, I pointed out the examples in your handout from the class can be a bit confusing. It showed the first bet going up as early as the third roll. You looked at it and saw it wasn’t showing the strict five count. Can you redo that section of the handout or clarify the reasons for betting on the third count? My guess is you are not putting the odds on these numbers until the fifth count.
There was also a note in the handout about not setting the dice at all on come out rolls. What is the verdict on that technique? I assume you mean your first roll with no come bets on the table.
Thanks,
Repo
Posted by: HardNine on October 19, 2019, 1:26 pm
Posted by: getagrip on October 19, 2019, 3:07 pm
Love that you brought this one back! It is a very excellent read and well worth reviewing periodically. Thanks!
Posted by: Finisher on October 21, 2019, 9:07 am
Good Rolling. 😀 😉
Posted by: High Arc on October 21, 2019, 9:52 pm
Now he sees the light. He only wants to come bet or could it be that my sister laid the law.. He wants to learn more about come betting.
High Arc
Posted by: Finisher on October 22, 2019, 4:52 pm
Her thing that she says the most is that my arm is not straight . O by the way she does not say that at the table but after I finish shooting away from table .
Dom you may try to give some home work to a few of students on Fri. that will be at tables that night . Like recording rolls of other players to get an idea of the 5 count . Some may admit that they are going to play and some may not tho .
Before I took the class I was a low roller so what you teach fit right in for me was not hard at all .
I also took the class before you included bets . I also was on this site for 2 yrs before I took the class . This site has changed for the BETTER since I first got on it .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂
Posted by: Nightrider on November 4, 2019, 1:04 pm
"Dominator" wrote: [quote="Butcher"]I think sometimes when I get tired, frustrated or just lose focus I tend to fall back into my bad habits with my throw as well as my betting. One thing I do is I have a 3×5 card with things I want to keep in my mind when I play and I use it to go over those points prior to hitting the tables. If I notice that I am not playing well I will step away, pull out my card and make sure I am not shooting myself in the foot by making dumb bets or not focusing on my throw fundamentals. Works for me.
I love this idea!
Dominator
i do this to but i downloaded notepad on my phone,i’ll say i need to go to the bathroom save my spot, read it because for some reason we all fall back to old habits and start losing then go back and start winning ,ALSO THE BIG THING, i use it for is the casino i’m at, the table i’m on, they all have different landing zones and some need a little different grip for more backspin or less,higher arch or less arch, i put in there which table needs what??? so when i go back i don’t have to start over with trying to figure the table out,it saves allot of time and money it’s much better than carrying a card and who don’t have a cell phone, that’s my 2cents works for me. everyone let me know what you think or add to it.
Posted by: MrPiP on November 21, 2019, 9:52 pm