Craps

Laying the comeout

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This is a result of something that getagrip posted previously.
I recently visited my local casino where I layed 71 accross. 4,10 (10 each) 5,6,8,9 (12 each) and a 3 vig paid up front. First they looked at me as if I were crazy and said they did not understand what I wanted to do. After some explaining they got it right. It did delay the game. They asked me the reason for it and I explained the most I would loose is 13 a 12 and 1 vig. The most I would win is 43 (46-3 vig). To figure it out completely it took the boxman and two suite that came from somewhere. They let me play it and I won the 3rd time so my net win on it was 17.
The two questions I have is do advantage players play this on their come out only with the all 7 set?
If you do not get a 7 but establish a point should you turn the lay into a place and then take it down after 1hit? The hit would allow you to recoup the 13 loss. Worse is the rapid 7 out loosing 69 of the 71.


Replies:

Posted by: Chuckman on September 25, 2015, 2:01 am

A better play if you are aiming for a come out 7 would be to hop the sevens. You will bet 4 each on the hop of 6/1, 5/2, 4/3. You are risking 12, for a max loss on something other than a 7. If you get the 7 you win 56: the winning 7 pays 15 to 1 for $60, you retain the winning bet for $4, you lose the two other bets at $8.

For example:

the 5/2 is rolled
you win $60 on the 5/2
you retain your $4 on the 5/2
you lose your $4 on the 6/1
you lose your $4 on the 4/3
60 + 4 – 4 – 4 = 56

Posted by: JimRy on September 25, 2015, 2:05 am

Would it be better to do a any 7 for 12. 48 plus retain the 12 for 60 total.

Posted by: Chuckman on September 25, 2015, 2:14 am

There is also the philosophy of not drawing attention to yourself. A casino being a private organization can in most jurisdictions not let you play. If you draw attention to yourself and consistently win, there is a good chance a casino will show you the door.

Your behavior can also have an effect on others. The GTC way is known and apparent. I am certain you must have encountered times when a dealer or the box has asked you: When did you take the class? or something to that effect. If you draw undue attention to yourself and win lots of money, the casino may decide "no more dice setting" and that ruins it for everyone.

Posted by: JimRy on September 25, 2015, 2:59 am

Chuckman
Thank you for your thoughts. I play as a low roller and do not win much from them as I want to have a local place to play frequently. You do have a great point. I do think the hop or any 7 would blend better with other gamblers.
With that said for either of those plays it is easy to do a progressive system or regression system based on wins or losses or repete the same bet every time. What are your thoughts?

Posted by: Chuckman on September 25, 2015, 3:00 am

You are correct on a one shot bet. $60 is better than $56.

If you were betting on a sequence of sevens and keeping the bets up, the hop is better.

$12 and 7 win $48, bet stays up net $48
$4 each 6/1, 5/2, 4/3 hop. Win $60, one bet stays up replace the other 2 at $4 each ($60- $8) net $52.

Posted by: Chuckman on September 25, 2015, 3:06 am

I think I screwed up my math on the earlier post.

Anyway, from a philosophical perspective, I am not a fan of regression in a general sense if you have an edge. Taking money off the table if you have an edge doesn’t help you win.

So you have to decide, flat or increase. If your initial comfort level would be to hop the 7s at $4 each for a total of $12, a reasonable progression would be to press $2 each for a total of $6 on each hit.

Posted by: Skinny on September 25, 2015, 3:18 am

JimRy,

You have said you are new to this site and are looking for information on the best ways to bet. You seem to be a person who wants to study and analyze the bets he makes. You also said you are self taught at this point and plan on taking a class in the future. At that time you will gain insight into the skill you have and what you need to develop in order to be able to have a controlled throw. You will also get a lot more knowledge about the best bets and what you need to make various bets. You will learn what it takes to become an advantage player (AP).

Having said that let me answer your question directly. We would not recommend making any prop bets, especially hopping the sevens, any seven or laying across the board on the come out unless you have documented evidence that you have a sufficient advantage in throwing the seven on the come out to overcome the house advantage on those wagers. By documented evidence I mean you need to have a sufficient number of throws in practice to be able to take a mathematically sound study of your advantage. We recommend using SmartCraps to analyze your ability, determine your edge and what is the best set for you to use. Of course you can do the same thing with pencil and paper (a computer spreadsheet nowadays) using valid statistical sampling techniques if you have that ability or knowledge.

Unless you have a skill of which I am unaware, I would not think you have the ability to overcome the house advantage on these wagers at this stage of your development. If you plan on taking a class in the next 6 months or so I would recommend you stop playing in the casinos and stop practicing throwing the dice. Unless you are different from the vast population of folks who have tried to learn on their own you are most likely developing bad habits that will have to be unlearned in order to develop a proper throw. That will only make your development into an AP that much harder for you.

The best thing you can do until you take a class is to practice setting the dice quickly using the hardway set. Do you know what a proper grip looks and feels like? If so, you can also practice your grip until they are both second nature to you. You need to be able to set and grip the dice very quickly at the tables so that you do not get criticized for taking too long with the dice.

I believe at this point your throw is probably still a random throw and you are not playing with an advantage against the house. Therefore it would be better for you to save your money and use it to build up a 401G rather than trying to beat the house when you are statistically at a disadvantage. If I have correctly guessed your ability at this stage this is the best advice I can give you. It may not be what you want to hear. But you need to decide if your objective is to make money when you play in the casinos or to be there to bet money and gamble at a disadvantage.

Posted by: JimRy on September 25, 2015, 1:21 pm

Skinny
Thank you. I have thick skin and you will never offend me by telling me the truth no matter what it is. I am studying and in attempts to gain full understanding at times will play different bets to gain the working knowledge. Yes this does cost money sometimes. I enjoy playing as a form of entertainment. Between now and the class other than set and grip how would yould recommend play? I like TBS but am not sure I have the skill to consistently repete numbers. I will usually place the 6,8 but with the hard ways set it seems there are more 5,9 than 8 not sure why. I usually play when its slow ans a 5 table. No more than 30 in play at any time. What would you suggest

Posted by: Chuckman on September 25, 2015, 4:12 pm

I would suggest one of two possibilities:

Passline with 2x odds, 6 and 8 for $6. Once you have $60 in your rack start going up a unit on the 6 and 8 an step up the odds as you make points, 3x, 4x, etv.

Passline with 2x odds and come bet with 2x odds. After 3 combined hits add an additional come bet for 3 numbers in play. After 6 combined hits start increasing odds.

One person’s opinion.

PS, I wouldn’t worry about hopping 7s with an initial spread of $30.

Posted by: Skinny on September 25, 2015, 4:16 pm

JimRy,

That sounds great. I am trying to help you become the best you possibly can so that you can make money as an AP. I am glad you took my comments in the way they were intended.

If you want to play for entertainment, realizing the casino probably has the advantage at this time, then you should certainly do what you enjoy. By making the best bets and keeping them at a controlled level you will hopefully do the best you can for now.

As for betting I would still recommend making a pass line bet along with come bets rather than placing the 6/8 for the following reason. It will get your money up on the table slower so you will not lose all your money on a quick seven out and it is a better way to get you on the 5/9 rather than making place bets on those numbers which have a much higher house advantage.

Make 3 bets at first (PL and 2 come bets) and place single odds if the bets go to the 5 or 9, no odds on the outside numbers 4/6/8/10 in the beginning. Hold at 3 bets until you win back the money you have on the table. If a bet comes down because you hit it after holding at 3 bets, put another come bet out to get back to 3 bets on the table. Once you get back your money you can be conservative and try to make some profit before putting more than 3 bets on the table or you can risk some more money and put up more than 3 bets allowing the come bets to cover the board if you are so inclined. Once again be sure to put enough in the rails to cover what you have put on the table and as much profit as you feel comfortable with making before putting more on the table. When you want to put more on the table I would recommend increasing your odds on the numbers you are hitting with the money you win from future hits, not from money you have put in your rails.

This is based on your saying you seem to hit the 5/9 more than the other numbers. If on any given roll that does not seem to be the case then feel free to move the odds from the 5/9 to the number(s) you are hitting. The general idea is to try to keep your initial amount at risk (the max amount you start with on the table before taking in any winnings) around $30. Thus if your first 3 numbers are all outside numbers you may want to add another come bet trying to get one come bet on the 5 or 9. That would still keep your initial amount at risk no greater than $30. Use your judgement as the hand develops. Put the odds on the numbers you are hitting and increase the odds on those numbers as well. Just keep in mind the basic principle of trying to win a profit equal to at least or double as much as you have at risk at any given point.

How does this sound to you?

Posted by: JimRy on September 25, 2015, 10:29 pm

This sounds good. When is a good time to add the odds. Let’s say the point is 5 should I go right up on the odds or complete the other come bets first then add the odds?
For an AP understanding thats probably not me right now but in general with the hard ways set will any single number appear more than its sister number? Why or why not?
Also for some reason I seem to throw an unusual amount of 3s. What are your thoughts?

Posted by: Skinny on September 26, 2015, 1:16 am

I would go up with the odds right away. But I would be prepared to move them to a different number if you are not hitting the 5/9 on that hand.

A 3-2 five or 4-5 nine is a single pitch with the hard way set and a good throw. A 4-1 five, 6-3 nine or 2-1 three are off-axis rolls indicative of a problem with your throw. Any time you see a 1 or 6 on one or both die with the hard way set you have made an off-axis roll which is not desirable.

The hard ways set provides the most protection against the seven but it does not favor any one box number over the other.

Throwing a lot of threes is most likely a problem with your grip that is causing the dice to go off-axis. It is possible it is in your toss but the most likely culprit is your grip.

Posted by: JimRy on September 26, 2015, 1:19 am

Thank you sir.

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on September 29, 2015, 10:24 pm

In answer to your original question, "Do advantage players lay the boxes and throw for the 7?" I have an advantage on throwing the 7 set, the last 3000 rolls I rolled a come-out
seven 50.2% of the time. Lay the points but take them all down if I don’t get a 7. I also hop the 7’s and press them if I hit on the first roll. Down the road if you become an
advantage player you should try this strategy then. In the meantime follow Skinny’s advise.

OneMoonCircles

Posted by: Finisher on October 4, 2015, 12:02 am

Why would you lay all the numbers when you could just lay all the money on one since you are going to take it down and hope that number does not become your point . Would be a faster game that way and draw less attention .
I think the hop IS BETTER IF you are going to do this . my .01 worth .
Good Rolling . 🙂 🙂

Posted by: ACPA on October 4, 2015, 3:20 am

Finisher,

Isn’t the reason you don’t lay just one number, is that while you win with a roll of seven laing one number or all numbers, you only lose a part of your bet when you roll that number if you are lying all the numbers but you lose all your bet if you roll the one number you are laying.?

Noah

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on October 4, 2015, 4:49 am

Exactly.

OMC

Posted by: Finisher on October 4, 2015, 7:32 am

ACPA That is right so IF you are going to lay on the theory that you are good for that come out 7 then why Call so much attention to yourself with laying all numbers when you can do it with 1 bigger bet or 2 ?Split the 2 with bigger bet and they will not think you took a class .
I did say that I thought the hop bet would be better IF you can do it .
Like lay the 4 and 10 .
I have never made a lay bet so don’t know what the veg. is on a bigger bet . It is so much easier for the dealers with just 2 bets .They will be confused enough .
I will stick to pass line with 3 bets on right side for now .Just seem to throw box numbers when set for 7s .
Also think it would be strange to ask for lay bets when next to stick person .
Hope all is well with both of you and maybe we can roll again soon .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: getagrip on October 4, 2015, 2:34 pm

Finisher,

IMHO, the casino will know by the way your toss looks that you have taken a class or at least that you are trying to be a dice influencer. I don’t think the betting will make a difference to them. In fact, laying all the numbers on the Come Out may make us look like just another crazy bettor.

Laying across is something I am working with at home for the enjoyment and possibilities but I can’t imagine that it will ever be taught in our classes. Of course, I haven’t taken the Advanced yet so I could be wrong. In the end I think we have to bet within our comfort zone and if two numbers seems better to you and you find you have an edge on that then that is what you should use.