Craps

Money Management Question

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So I have been thinking about money management issues recently as I am on an ugly downtrend having lost 4 straight trips to the local casinos with an average loss of just over $500 per trip. To put that in perspective, my wife and share a bankroll and we use a very slightly modified Big Skinny (wait for 2 hits to go to a 3rd come bet) and play only $5 tables with 3-4-5X odds (casinos allow 10X odds at one and 25X at another) building to full odds after 8 hits. The point is that our initial outlay is relatively low (using a 15K 401g). The shooter will play only the pass line while the non-shooter does the come betting.

Being GTC’ers with SRR at 6.4 for me and 6.6 for my wife after about 6000 recorded rolls, it is reasonable to assume that we will have at least one or two decent rolls if we touch the dice 6 or 7 times each. At what point does one come to the conclusion that this session is just not going to be a good one. It seems to me that with over $2k in losses in the last 4 sessions with a 14K bankroll that if things don’t change soon, we could get wiped out.

By the way, in all the losing sessions, the dice look good in the air, our grip and rhythm are good. As long as the dice look good should you simply trust the throw and keep firing away or should you pull the plug quickly and live to fight another day. For the record, we drive 40 minutes to the closest casino that we play and just about an hour to the 2nd one so it’s not overly convenient to go and leave in 20 minutes.

Thanks for any input you might have.

jawbones


Replies:

Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 24, 2015, 1:20 pm

JB–short for JawBones–reading your post and seeing your throw, I don’t really see anything wrong with your betting. Remember with the SRR you mention your long turn advantage is very small, making the variance swings to, at times, be very large. Believe me, we know this can be very discouraging, for we have been there and done that. For example in the last 15 months we had 3 trips where we were in the red each trip. Not a lot but enough to make one think "can I still do this." The dice can look good, you are betting like we teach, but the results suck. It happens and we simply have to live with it.

During the last two trips we made enough money to more than offset the those 3 losses plus profit. During all of the last 5 trips we had free (or very cheap rooms) and some excellent comped meals.

All I can tell you is to remember the Goldfinger philosophy—a losing session or trip is simply a temporary hit to your bankroll, you will make it back.

You and Lady Luck hang in there. Remember the casino does not win from every body each time, but they have a $10,000,000 bank which is slightly larger than yours and ours!!!!

Look forward to seeing you in Vegas.

Doc

Posted by: JawBones on July 24, 2015, 5:41 pm

Thanks Doc. I always appreciate and enjoy your insight. Looking forward to seeing you and Alligator Rose in September.

Dennis

Posted by: Finisher on July 25, 2015, 5:19 am

JB DO YOU PRACTICE WITH CHIPS ?
I have been trying the BS in practice with no luck . It seems that I get the $$$ out there and the 7 comes along .So in casino I start out real slow with place bets at first .Unless I already have had a good roll and the dice look ,feel right .
How many rolls did it take for you to have a loss of 500 ? Point 7 out should not be that bad but a 3 or more roll could hurt more .I agree that you are betting right just you need a good roll a little more often .Some times my best roll is when I am down to my stop point or loss limit point .
That brings up a point . Do you have a loss limit set before you start ?

I have no 401g to speak of YET . So I bye in for 200.00 and have a stop loss of 100 .This does or should last for 3 to 6 hrs. of play on 5.00 table .
If there ever comes a time when both my wife and I win then we will have that 401g set up . But so far that has not been the play .
Hope that you will get some of those losses back SOON . trust YOUR THROW .It will come .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: JawBones on July 25, 2015, 11:19 am

Hi Finisher.

Our typical buy-in is $500 each and we will stop if we get down $300 each, maybe sooner if the dice just aren’t doing right. We try to play at uncrowded tables and will handle the dice 6-7 times each on average. I have never really kept track of this but these numbers seem about right as far as how many times we roll.

Our SRR’s have fallen a bit. Shortly after my last Refresher in Vegas last October my SRR climbed to over 7 but by January it was starting to fall to its current 6.4 or so.

We do practice with chips. A typical practice starts with some time with the gripper just picking up the dice out of the gripper and putting them back. After several times of this, we put them on the practice rig surface and put them into the gripper. Next we will usually do some backswing and forward swing movements without releasing the dice and finally throwing, occasionally aiming at a bowl. We end with "game practice" using chips and betting as we would in the casino. These sessions usually result in decent results.

Our max risk on the table is $85 which would happen if we had bets on the 6, 8, and either the 5 or 9 to begin since we bet 5/25 on 6 and 8, 5/20 on 5 and 9, and 5/15 on 4 and 10. We do have many sessions where we get the first 3 numbers covered and then hit an uncovered number multiple times with no bet on it. We don’t add to the table until we have hit 2 paydays. The one thing we are for sure is disciplined in that regard.

We have toyed with the idea of doing $5 line bets with only double odds and progressing after the 8 hits but we do understand the math of the game and the odds bet is an even money bet so getting more out there makes sense. The only reason we don’t 5/25 on 4,6,8,& 10 with 5/20 on 5/9 is that the $35 payoff is easier for my wife to remember (she is new to the game, just took a Primer course with me last October). On this current down trend we are experiencing, have higher odds on 4 and 10 would be making things even worse. The other thing we have been practicing this past week is after we cover our first 3 numbers with TBS, we will place the other 3 numbers with a single unit. The thought being that would cure the situations where we pound an uncovered number or two. We have only been doing this for the past week but so far, it really doesn’t seem beneficial due to having hit the 7 a number of times after all numbers were covered.

I appreciate your input and always enjoy your comments on other posts. Also, I applaud you for being able to play for 3 to 6 hours while having a stop of $100. You are definitely doing something right!

Keep rolling. Hopefully our paths will cross one day and we can belly up to a hot table together.

Posted by: Finisher on July 25, 2015, 6:17 pm

JB I tend to start out real slow .So that may be one reason I can stay so long but I think that also is a bad thing too .
I some times just put out single odds then when get a hit or two add to it .I guess I play to many different ways . It depends on my feeling at the time more then any thing .
I am slowly changing my bad habits that I have had for over 30 yrs.
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: Chuckman on July 26, 2015, 4:59 am

Jawbones,

A couple of ideas if you want to try something different until you get out of your rut:

1) Try passline and 6/8. The shooter plays the passline with 3/4/5 odds as described. The non-shooter(NS) places the 6 and 8 for $30. If the point is 6 or 8 then the NS places the other and makes one come bet. Just something different to try.

2) Have both of you work your own Big Skinny(BigS) but alternate putting it out there. What do I mean? Shooter makes the passline bet and establishes a point. Next the NS makes a come bet. After the first come point is established, now the shooter makes the next come bet. When the second come point is established the NS makes the next come bet, alternating back and forth until you each have your three bets established. Then you each work your own BigS independent of the other. If you cut back to double odds your max outlay will be in the same ballpark (((5+10)x3)x2)=90. You will only hit that if you hit each box number once with no repeats. This just gets the money into the game slower than the system you have been using.

Not claiming either of these are better than what you have been doing. Just something different to try.

Posted by: JawBones on July 26, 2015, 10:55 am

Hi Chuckman,

Thank you for your input. I like both of these ideas and will give them a try in our practice sessions to see how they feel. I appreciate the suggestions.

jb