Craps

Help with my betting, please!

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Let me just say that I am kind of a learning junkie. I love to ask questions and learn the answers.I have realized that I really don’t know a lot about Craps Lay bets or maybe any of the "Don’t" side of Craps play. So let me pose some questions—and I will add theoretical questions as I know GTC does not advocate betting this way. Why do I ask these questions here then? Well, because of the type of forum this is. I trust you all to give me correct information and the very best information to ponder. So here are the questions.

Here is the set up. On my toss only. Total Lay Bet across is $80 (4&10) +60 (5&9)+ 48 ( 6&8) =$188 . If 7 is tossed on the Come Out then win $120 minus the vig (Win $20 per box number). If point is established without a 7 tossed then – 40 or -30 or – 24 will be outcome. Lay bets only work on Come Out cycle. Otherwise they are off or down.

Questions about Lay Bets:

(1) How does the vig work on Lay bets? Differs from casino to casino? Always vig upfront? Vig returned on non decision bets if paid upfront?

(2) How is the vig calculated on each of these individual Lay bets? (Trying to determine total vig for this bet if 7 is tossed) Can you push the house on these Lay bets just like Buy bets? Am I correct in thinking that you pay the vig on the amount you would win and not actually the amount of money you are laying?

(3) What would my SRR with my Come Out 7 set have to be to make this mathematically an Advantage play?

(4) Which would be a better bet over time with a proven edge to toss a 7 with a Come Out set? (A) Lay across until point is established? or (b) Lay one box number—the box number statistically least tossed with the Come Out set until point is established? Why?

(5) Then there are all the questions regarding what to do if I am successful and toss a 7 on the first Come Out roll. Do I then remove all the Lay bets? Let them ride? Add more $ to each bet? Regress each bet? I do tend to toss the 7’s in clumps. At what point in a string of 7’s does it become counter productive to continue with these bets on the table or increased? From a mathematical standpoint anyway? What are the odds of tossing the next Come Out 7?

Thanks everyone! I look forward to learning what you all think and gaining some more Craps knowledge.

Sent from my iPad


Replies:

Posted by: Finisher on July 10, 2015, 8:16 pm

For part of 5 .I thought that when you win they come down , but I am just hoping that more with more knowledge will post .
Hope all is well with you .We are getting ready to go to Europe next month .
No casinos till get back . ( Sept. ).
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: getagrip on July 10, 2015, 8:44 pm

Hi Finisher!
Thanks for the reply! Life is good here in Old Mexico so thanks for asking! Have a wonderful time with your granddaughter and family!

Regarding #5. I thought I was watching someone using Lay bets one night and I don’t remember them automatically coming down. Maybe casino specific? But these are the reasons I am asking as I know very little about these bets. Again thanks for your interest in all posts on this forum and your reply!

Posted by: Mr Finesse on July 10, 2015, 11:20 pm

I have 1 suggestion, it looks like the last class you took was a refresher in 2011. Since then we have changed what we teach in class and we have added lectures on proper betting. I think it would benefit you to take another Refresher class to take advantage of the new betting lectures. Every one thinks this change is the best thing GTC has ever added to our weekend class.

Call Dom or send me an email with your phone number and I will call you back so we can help you with your betting.

Posted by: getagrip on July 11, 2015, 12:12 am

Hi!

Thanks Mr Finesse!

I would really love to take another GTC class and I do have it in mind for the future. I have really enjoyed and learned tons at every class I have taken with GTC. However, not living in the USA right now and having many other commitments when I do get back to the U.S. for visits makes it unreasonable to schedule a class at this point. I will certainly arrange one in the future and look forward to the betting portion.

Until that time, any input on any of my questions here? Thanks and I will look forward to seeing you at a class as soon as possible! 🙂

Posted by: Pit Boss on July 11, 2015, 3:35 am

"getagrip" wrote: Here is the set up. On my toss only. Total Lay Bet across is (80 + 60 + 48)= $188. If a 7 is tossed on the Come Out then win $120 minus the vig (Win $20 per box number). If point is established without a 7 tossed then – 80 or -60 or – 48 will be outcome. Lay bets only work on Come Out cycle. Otherwise they are off or down.

I think there is an error here, on the 6/8 you have to lay $49 to win $42, or lay or lay $56 to win $48 or make your life simple and lay $70 to win $60
Questions about Lay Bets:

(1) How does the vig work on Lay bets? Differs from casino to casino? Always vig upfront? Vig returned on non decision bets if paid upfront?
In Vegas, the vig is paid when the bet is won. In AC its the other way around. In Mexico (Tijuana) it’s paid up front. The vig is returned to you if you take your bet down if it was collected up front.

(2) How is the vig calculated on each of these individual Lay bets? (Trying to determine total vig for this bet if 7 is tossed) Can you push the house on these Lay bets just like Buy bets? Am I correct in thinking that you pay the vig on the amount you would win and not actually the amount of money you are laying?
The vig is 5% on each $20 that is on won not bet. Its the opposite of the do side.
In Vegas they dont let you push bets, I don’t know about AC or the rest of the country.

(3) What would my SRR with my Come Out 7 set have to be to make this mathematically an Advantage play? I suppose the absolute best would be a 1, but it should be an advantage play at 5.9?

(4) Which would be a better bet over time with a proven edge to toss a 7 with a Come Out set? (A) Lay across until point is established? or (b) Lay one box number—the box number statistically least tossed with the Come Out set until point is established? Why? I’m going to answer your 2nd part. There is no statistically less thrown number that matters. When you lay the odds, they are true odds. Yes the 4/10 show up 3 times to 6 (on the 7) but there is no edge there becasue you are laying 6 to 3 (or 2 to 1) agianst the four. So when the 7 comes, there is no edge.

(5) Then there are all the questions regarding what to do if I am successful and toss a 7 on the first Come Out roll. Do I then remove all the Lay bets? Let them ride? Add more $ to each bet? Regress each bet? I do tend to toss the 7’s in clumps. At what point in a string of 7’s does it become counter productive to continue with these bets on the table or increased? From a mathematical standpoint anyway? What are the odds of tossing the next Come Out 7? I’ll take your last one here first again. Odds of rolling a 7 after rolling the first 7 are 6 in 36, just like the previous roll. As to the 1st part of your question/s, if you feel like you have the advantage, then dont remove them, you play them till you feel like you no longer have the advantage.

Thanks everyone! I look forward to learning what you all think and gaining some more Craps knowledge.

Sent from my iPad

Posted by: getagrip on July 11, 2015, 4:06 am

Wow, thanks Pit Boss! Great info!

Will go back and rethink my plan on the Lay bets and check my numbers as it does look like an error on my part. Will think about it in regards to my bankroll too.

Last 5000 tosses with my Come Out set is showing a SRR of 4.78. Seems like I should be doing something to win some money on my Come Out tosses with that SRR rather than just flat betting Pass Line. Could try hopping 7’s I suppose but that is so not me and would disrupt my concentration I think. When I play it is in Vegas so the info you gave will really help me.

I will think about it and work on this betting in practice to see if I can make it work for me without much thinking. Kind of unconventional but then it is only practice so where is the harm in that I think!

My understanding of Lay betting is better because of you and that understanding is really the first step in making a proper analysis! Thanks again! 😎

Posted by: Finisher on July 11, 2015, 8:21 am

getagrip Will you be coming back to US BEFORE THE YEAR ENDS ?
On your come out rolls do you just bet the pass line or the c&e . I still am a gambler on the come out rolls with a world bet . I set the 6s on top with the 5s looking at me .Have had some luck at making a few $$ before the point is est. this way except lately for some reason .
They took my craps machine out of casino here so will be going out of town more often to play now .
Hope we can roll again some time . I still LOL about that time with you and the other GTCers at gold coast .
I have been trying come bets in practice with no luck .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: getagrip on July 11, 2015, 3:03 pm

Finisher,

Maybe next Spring or Summer for our next trip.

No fun about your machine going away. The one thing I have found though about longer, more expensive trips to the casino for me is that I tend to have better betting discipline because of those costs. No more I will just toss out a dollar here or there for me! 🙂

I usually just bet Pass Line on the Come Out roll with no hedges of any kind. Just the flat bet. Variance and HA will take their toll on those bets for sure over time. Next time at the tables, if I am playing lone wolf, may try some don’t pass and don’t come and then set for the 7’s. Could be fun and hopefully profitable to see how that turns out! Would need to get the dice back quickly though to make it fun.

My short experience with testing out the pass and come bets is that their is more variance for me than other betting I use. Lose more often but win bigger on long rolls. Not sure if this fits my betting "personality" or not but I have a lot of practice time to work with it before future trips.

Hope to see you again in the casinos soon!

Posted by: Finisher on July 11, 2015, 6:07 pm

When you have gotten in a long roll have you ever layed your last point ? It seems that some on this site are doing that when they have gone on a long roll .In the past CII brought this up in an earlier post.You know that the 7 will come sooner or later . Also if you loose your lay bet then you win your pass line bet so not to bad just need to do the math .It is like when you come bet and on a come out roll you roll a 7 and get your odds back .Except you loose the dice when you win the lay bet .Just a thought and is not a good bet .
I just hate it when the 7 out comes and they take ALL the money away when it has been building up during the roll .This way you will get a little back to make you feel a little better .Some do it when they are trying for the 6 point fire bet .Which is a bad bet too .
It is kind of like when I make a come bet I put a dollar on any craps . I say to myself that a 2.00 win is better then a 5.00 loss .
One dealer says all the time that in would love to win 2.00 on every roll .A win is a win no matter how small . Sure I may loose that dollar but I may be off and on with that bet instead .In the long run of math it is a bad bet .When I get to were I throw less crap numbers I will change my betting ( BAD ) WAYS until then I am still a gambler. ( LOW ROLLER ) I kid the dealers ALL the time that it is hard to get a GREEN Chip from them .LOL
Keep your pass port up and ENJOY Life .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 21, 2015, 2:04 am

Spend $30 to hop them to make $130 or make those lay bets n risk $80 to win $120? I think U know the answer to this 1. That $80 to win $120 is your math I didn’t work it out. I’m taking your word on it. I’d just probably put more money on the pass line but if U get good at hitting your set hopping would definitely be the best option. If I know I can hit my set I’m hopping Hardays but that’s a big if cause I’m more of a 1 on n 1 off axis pass/come bettor but when I get into a real zone which is rare but happens I’m playing hard ways n hopping then n still playing The Big Skinny. If your in 1 of those zones U have to go for the throat.

Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 21, 2015, 2:11 am

The hopping hardways pay 30 to 1 why go for the 7’s that pay 15-1. That’s a big if. I only do this when I’m in a zone on axis n knocking down my set so much that I have to bet it. Those types of zones can change your lifestyle.

Posted by: getagrip on July 21, 2015, 4:53 pm

Thanks for the comments and good suggestions Ron.

Everyone’s ideas will come into consideration as I work through various possibilities in practice to see if anything makes money consistently on my Come Out tosses. It will probably be awhile before any of these plays go into the casino with me and maybe never if the results aren’t there in practice.

I don’t toss enough hard ways to even consider the hop on those but I love to see those of you that can toss those hard ways consistently—Bman comes to my mind immediately. I haven’t had the pleasure of seeing you in action but that may happen someday! Hope so!

Thanks again for your thoughts!

Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 21, 2015, 7:59 pm

When I played basketball some days I couldn’t miss n some days I couldn’t make a shot. I definitely have off days. I’m trying to get better n better just like you. Hopping 7’s when you set for them is the same as hopping hard ways pretty much except if your banking on an off axis 6/1. Hitting your set is hitting your set so if you can hit your set I’d rather go for 30 to 1 than 15-1. The only difference is the numbers U put in your set. Like I said that if is a Big if but I do get into zones when I’m knocking down my set regularly or a particular # combination keeps coming. I play The Big Skinny but when it’s called for that hard way n hopping game becomes a game within a game. You just can’t force it when it’s not there n throw money away. If I’m in a zone n the hard ways are coming frequently or a specific # combo is coming I’ll take a shot.

Posted by: getagrip on July 21, 2015, 9:53 pm

Hi Ron!

My fault for the confusion I think as I should have mentioned that I do not use "the standard" all 7 set for my Come Out 7 success. If I did use that set then I can agree that I should be able to turn them over and hit primary face Hardways. I do agree with your analysis in principle.

I find my strong points so far on this journey to be very few two dice off axis and an excellent on axis and secondary face hit percentage. That is what I am trying to use to my advantage right now in my casino practice and play. My primary face hits are actually well below random so I am influencing that maybe but not in a good way. I continue to work in practice on getting those primary face hits and would definitely like to improve that stat. My middle finger on the front of the dice is crooked physically so also a tad crooked on the dice. Maybe those primary face hits will never come or maybe they will with more practice. I will keep trying and if my stats ever show that I would love to hop a Hardway and hit it! That would be a fun zone to be in!

Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 22, 2015, 12:53 am

It’s awesome 😎 Good luck with your game. It’s good that your honest with yourself. I hit a hopping hard 10 in Atlantis n I parlayed a hard 6 from 10 to 100 in AC last week. Overall all tho I’m probably even. It seems whenever I bet it I don’t hit or when I don’t bet it they come in flurries. I try to bet them less but for a little more when I take a shot. $25 pays $750 on the hopping hard 8. If I hit it I keep $675 n try again for $100 which pays 3 G’s. Hit a few of those in a row n I’ma Happy Man.

Posted by: getagrip on July 22, 2015, 4:09 am

"Jumbotron Ron" wrote: It seems whenever I bet it I don’t hit or when I don’t bet it they come in flurries.

Ain’t that the story of Craps! 😀

A life without risk is not worth living but don’t ignore the discipline and don’t forget to enjoy the good times! It sure is a fun but humbling game. 🙂

Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 22, 2015, 5:54 am

I Agree

Posted by: getagrip on September 19, 2015, 6:27 pm

Hi All!

Just a short update on this Lay betting strategy I was trying out in practice. I am sure most of you will not be surprised that it was NOT a winner on my last casino trip.

The good thing is that I didn’t actually bet it but just kept track of all of my casino numbers on the Come Out rolls and ran the strategy against those numbers. If I would have bet it though I would not have made money.

I am probably through with this experiment on Lay bets but I do need to go back through the stats to see if it would have been a winner if I only bet it in certain situations—like after one Come Out 7—–as I do tend to toss those in clumps. Just like if your shot is on during the Point cycle you will toss a lot of repeaters.

Still seems to work in my home practice but the casino is where the money comes from. Will get more stats on my next casino trip to continue looking at it for possible future play.

Posted by: JimRy on September 19, 2015, 8:43 pm

Getagrip
To answer your question about hopping the 7 on your come out. I find that I am normally anti-hop on anything. If you hop the 7 for 1 each way then your profit is 13. If you do a 3 any 7 then your profit is 12. For me the 1 difference is not a big enough profit to change from the any 7 to the hop.
Like finisher I am still a gambler and will frequently on my come out do a 5 pl 1 C,e and 1 any 7. If a point is made I loose 2. If a crap is hit then I make 1. If a 7 is hit I make 8. If I make a point I will add 1 each time to the any 7 because I know with the all 7 set I will hit one within 3-6 come out rolls.

Finisher
I am also a low roller. I find that during the learning phase this is best even if my bank roll allows for more. I have tricked myself into thinking until I fully develop GTC principles that winning 50 or loosing 100 on a trip as a low roller is more enjoyable than winning 500 or loosing 1000. However winning 500 as a low roller is also nice. But at my level of play and loss limits I will leave before I loose 200. I also find that I can go to my local casino as often as I want and play at this level with no worries of them running me off since I don’t take alot from them each trip. What are your thoughts on this?