OK, here are the results of my latest statistical project.
Many people, instructors and players, have said you need to make money on the short rolls. So for the last 3000 rolls I have tracked the first 3 and 4 rolls after the comeout.
# ……………………………………….2………..3…….4………5……..6……..7……..8………9…………..10………11………..12
3 rolls………………………… 15% ……26%…..26.3%….42%….54.4%…61.6%…43.3%…45.6%…..31.1%….26.9%…….17.5%
4 rolls……………………………………………….30%…..47.1%….62.2%…71.1%…51.6%…..52.2%…..35.2%…………………..
2, 3, 11, and 12 I did not list the 4 rolls because the change was insignificant. Sevens are outs only. The set used is the 2V with the primaries 2/2, 5/5, 6/3 and 1/4. If one was to use the asymmetrical set I think the 5’s will come more often, 9’s less often and 4 an 10 will both increase. This is evidenced by one practice with the asymmetrical set so
really it is conjecture only.
While there were significant increases in the 6, 7, 8 and 9 for the 4th roll there were smaller increases for the other numbers.
Now, what the hell do I do with this information you may ask? I have changed my betting from placing the 5 to placing the 9 along with the 6 and 8. So far I see a little more $$ in my rack. I am more willing to go to $12 on 6 rather than just $6. I still play up-a-unit and don’t press until I have as much in my rack as on the table. I felt the inside numbers were
the most common but I wanted to know more precisely. This adds about 5 minutes to the statistics recording that I do and has been worth it.
One thing I should note is that I thought I was throwing more 5’s than 9’s and more 8’s than 6’s. This is not the case as you can see, at least in the first 4 rolls. I expect 28 fives and nines and 35 sixes and eights in a typical 120 roll practice. Generally the 5/9 and 6/8 are evenly split. This is a rounded figure for an SRR of "9".
I’m unsure if Smart Craps will give you this info or not. You should try it on your own practice. While we are trying for long rolls we should not forget the short rolls can make you money. You will have many more short than long rolls.
OneMoonCircles
Replies:
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 2, 2015, 6:37 am
OMC
Posted by: Finisher on July 2, 2015, 7:28 am
Unless you are just making one bet or 2 . Or do you not count your odds as a bet .
If your point is 6 or 8 then you have 30.00 out on it and 6.00 for the other . Then you have 5.00 or 10.00 for the 5 and 9 .Which means that you need to hit 6 numbers before you start your press . Is this the way you do it ?
I can not think of a way of making money on short rolls unless you are throwing 7s or 11s on come out .
Have you looked at how many times you throw a 7 or 11 before you throw a box number to est. a point .
At times I have made my out lay for the numbers that I bet on minus the odds on the pass line bet .
I still have a little of a gambler in me so I bet the world on come outs .So some times I can make money on a vary short roll .But then that is a hole that I put myself into if I est. a point on the come out first roll .
I do your way some of the time and other times I just up a unite from the get go .
I just hate when I roll all the numbers then 7 out with little back in rack for the wins that I did have .But on the other hand it is nice to start all bets with casino money instead of taking out of BR .
If my point is 4 or 10 I bet the 6 and 8 with a come bet . If it is the 5 or 9 I make 3 bets the same goes for the 6 or 8 . It takes a lot of rolls for me to be all the way across .Some times I never get all of them covered .
Just do not do well with come bets yet .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 3, 2015, 6:32 am
number.
OMC
Posted by: Dominator on July 3, 2015, 1:57 pm
Dom
Posted by: FourTen on July 3, 2015, 2:50 pm
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 4, 2015, 7:11 am
I had no one to tell me what "normal" is. I think a better description is "usual". My thinking has been that the 5/9 with 4% house advantage would be easier to overcome than
the 4/10 with 6.67% house advantage. I only go to Vegas once or twice a year so I have to deal with Colorado casinos. My favorite one here takes the vig on wins only.
Since I just finished the first study I have done on this I will use the asymmetrical set for the next 3000 rolls. Let us see what happens and I’ll report my findings in about 2 months. Hopefully just before the September class which I will be attending. A reminder that I have thrown the 2V "my way" for about 7 years. I have only thrown the 2V the "usual" way
once and that was the final 120 rolls of the aforementioned 3000.
If I find I do better money wise, at least in practice, I will consider changing after the analysis and after the upcoming refresher. My on axis rolls should get better after
the refresher. I have had 55% on axis and some over 50% and I am averaging above the 44.4% random axis control for thousands of rolls.
With my one finger front there is a tendency for one dice to be off axis more than the other and for me it is the right dice, the one toward the boxman. I should expect
to see an increase in the 12’s. I will be interested to see if I do indeed have less 7’s!
Considering that there are only 3 ways to hit tens and fours do you honestly believe that I should hit enough to make up the difference of 4 possibilities on the 5 and 9?
This will be a nice challenge.
OneMoonCircles
Posted by: Dominator on July 4, 2015, 3:29 pm
Excuse me for asking, but the first thing to go is the mind when you get older 😀 …..did you register yet for the September refresher?
Dom
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 5, 2015, 4:08 am
OMC
Posted by: Dominator on July 5, 2015, 2:19 pm
Dom
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 7, 2015, 5:52 am
OMC
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on September 13, 2015, 6:07 pm
casino I have not. I have rolled more 7 outs in practice, about 1% increase. This may be just variance. Also had the best roll ever, a 72, in this set. During the testing
period I rolled a 60 in a casino tying my best ever in live play. My son came to help me through the slump and immediately noticed a problem which he helped me with
on the spot. I have been throwing at a much higher level since. The 72 came within a week.
This is a study of the first 4 rolls after establishing a comeout number. This is to establish which bets to make money on on short rolls. The first number will be the
outcome from 2 -12. Then the % from the first test with my normal set of the 2V which for me is the 6/3 left to right at my thumb. I throw left-handed and with a
one finger front. Next will be the % from the latest 3000 rolls and the 2V asymmetrical set. That is 6/4 at my thumb.
2 15% 14.1% /////////// 7 70.9% 63.7% /////////// 8 51.5% 62.8%
3 26% 27.1% ///////////////////// 9 52.1% 43.2%
4 29.9% 27.1% ////////////////////// 10 35.2% 30.8%
5 47.1% 45.9% ////////////////////// 11 26.9% 25.7%
6 62% 47.5% ////////////////////// 12 17.5% 10.9%
As you can see the 2, 3, 4, 5 and 11 had minor changes. The 6 and 8 were swapped and the 9, 10 and 12 had significant changes.
Why the big changes? I throw a lot of double pitches so the 9 and 10 changed from a primary to a double pitch plus normal variance. I get a lot of one dice off axis
so that accounts for the switch in the 12.
Conclusions. The 6, 8, 5 and 9 are still the most reliable bets to make in the first 4 rolls after the comeout. It might be better to switch to the asymmetrical set to make the 8
while keeping "my" set for the 6. Even tho the percentages are down for the asymmetrical set I have found that in casino I do make more 4 and 10 points using it.
In addition to the above table I now track 7 outs and comeout 7’s that I set for. I have increased my 7’s on the comeout to 50.62% One last note is that I have noticed a decline
in points made in practice with the asymmetrical set. Oops, made less $$ on the asymmetrical set.
I hope you enjoyed this info. Try if for yourself. If you need details see me at Vegas or call or e-mail me.
Until that time
OneMoonCircles
