Skinny,
I am sure you have addressed this question multiple times. I have searched and read just about every post on TBS going back to 2012. My wife and I have been using it in live play recently starting at 5X odds on a $5 table. Results are mixed but that is mainly due to our skill level, not the method. Our 401g equity curve is tilted downward but we expect that to improve as our skill with dice improves. Anyway, I read 2 posts that now make me question my understanding of this method a bit.
In the 2012 thread where you re-posted your original thread from a pdf file, you were very clear that the method begins with a PL bet with full odds and 2 Come bets with full odds. After 1 hit, you now go to 4 numbers (PL and 3 CB), 2 hits go to 5 and 3 hits go to 6. I understand that it may take a while to get all the numbers covered due to repeats which is a very good thing.
However, in a post dated March 20, 2015 in a discussion with JumbotronRon, I interpret your method differently. It seems that in that thread, you start the same way (PL and 2 CB) but don’t go up another number until after the 4th hit.
Has TBS changed or did I somehow misinterpret your March, 2015 post?
Thanks for your patience and desire to help us become better players.
Dennis ("Jawbones")
Replies:
Posted by: Dr Crapology on April 21, 2015, 4:56 pm
However you can make some variations depending on the risk you are willing to take. For example I know Dom has mentioned on several occasions that he like to go with 3 bets–pass line and 2 come bets until he has 3 paydays. Then he goes for a 4th number.
I know that Rose and I like to go up immediately on the 6 and 8 after the pass line is established as well as one come bet until we have 4 numbers covered. With 4 numbers and 3 hits we will have have almost enough in wins to cover all 4 bets since the odds win on the 3 paydays gives us a little extra to cover the 4th bet. Then it is "petal to the metal so to speak" as we have a come bet on each and every roll of the dice. Sometimes we will hit several 6’s and 8’s and will have a come bet up on every roll from the get go. Sometimes we have an early 7 out and lose money. HOWEVER we have found over the years that we tend to hit a lot of 6’s and 8’s so going right up on these 2 number (with a very low house edge of 1.5%) is a good long run bet for us. Also usually we will have an early hit on one of the placed 6’s or 8’s and it becomes a come bet so that lowers the house edge to 1.4%.
We have the bank roll to do this.
We also like to take as much odds as we can afford since the odds bet is "never at risk." Think about that for a minute. You as an advantage player have an edge over the casino in the long run. We know anything can happen in the short run—this is true for the casino as well. BUT if we play long enough with our edge, we will come out ahead in the long run. The long run may come into play be in one session, one day, one trip or several trips. That’s why we stress having an adequate 401g. The loss of the odds bets is only a temporary hit to your bankroll. That’s why the casinos have a multi-million dollar bankroll.
Hope that will help. I look forward to Skinny’g (or anyone else) critique of these comments.
Doc
Posted by: JawBones on April 21, 2015, 5:19 pm
Any time Doc, Rose, and so many others have something to say, I am definitely going to listen.
Thanks for your input.
jawbones
Posted by: Skinny on April 21, 2015, 10:19 pm
First, I really like Doc’s answer. I think TBS should be viewed as a framework for a sound betting technique. Each player needs to try it in practice first, then in the casino and tweak it to his own tolerance for risk and preferences. I have read many players who have said that is what they have done with it and are having good success with their own modifications.
As for your question I may have reverted to an earlier form of TBS in replying to JumbotronRon.
When I first devised it I was more conservative with it. My maximum initial amount at risk was for 3 numbers with full 5X odds. I used 3 unit bets so I was able to push the house and put up slightly more than 5X on the inside numbers. With those 3 wagers, 4 hits would give me approximately double my initial amount at risk. So in the beginning I would not put more money on the table until I had 4 hits. I would then have a profit that I locked up equal to my initial amount at risk.
The problem was it took too long to get up on 6 numbers this way. I would get up on 3 numbers with 1 or 2 hits and hold. Then I would knock one of the numbers down for say my 3rd hit and be back to only 2 numbers again. I put out a come bet and get back up on 3 numbers, but because I only had 3 hits I would not put out another come bet and the next hit would once again knock one of my numbers down. Now I had 4 hits but was only up on 2 numbers once more. But because I had 4 hits, I was now willing to risk it all to go up on 6 numbers because even if I did not get another hit I would not lose any money on this roll since 4 hits gave me enough to cover 6 numbers. Of course that rarely happened. I usually would get a few more hits while going up on 6 numbers so that even if the roll ended soon, I still made a decent profit.
After trying this for quite some time I decided to use the same logic I applied in going to 6 numbers after 4 hits to going to 4,5 and 6 numbers earlier. In other words, with my original method I was willing to use all my winnings from 4 hits to cover 6 numbers which would not risk any of my starting bankroll. So then I reasoned I was willing to have an initial amount at risk equal to the cost of covering 3 numbers. If I took the winnings from my first hit for a 4th number, winnings from my 2nd hit for a 5th number and winnings from my 3rd hit for a 6th number, I could cover all 6 numbers with 3 hits and not have any more money at risk than my initial amount at risk for 3 numbers.
I think you can see how this is more aggressive. But I found that in live play my rolls would usually extend long enough that it did not hurt me. It was rare for me to get a lot of numbers on the board without enough hits to give me a reasonable profit. If I were having a bad day it would be because my rolls would end very quickly and that was not as expensive as a roll that covered the board with only 1,2 or 3 hits and then ended.
Thus I came up with what I considered to be an improved method of going to more numbers than 3 after each hit.
In fact, what I actually do for myself is I don’t even wait for a hit to go up on 4, 5 or 6 numbers. If I get up on 3 numbers without a hit, I still keep putting out come bets to get the board covered even if I don’t have any hits at all. I find it very rare for me to seven out with 6 numbers without having enough hits (4) to cover what I have on the board. But this is extremely aggressive and you need the skill, bankroll and tolerance for risk to do it that way. I find my alternative of going with more numbers after getting hits to be a better compromise.
However I do not go to the next level unless I have 8 hits. Having 6 numbers out there is a lot at risk and you need a profit before putting more on the table. I am pretty firm about not going to the next level until I have 8 hits.
Anyhow, this gives you a few options. You may want to experiment a bit and see what works best for you. Let me know how it goes.
Posted by: getagrip on April 21, 2015, 11:13 pm
Skinny,
The above is the exact same problem I have had with TBS. I am not sure if I am ready to be as aggressive as you are in just getting out on six numbers as I often seem to roll a 7 on the Come out and kill the whole sequence. While I am happy to get my odds back I get frustrated by having to start over again. I have adopted a hybrid if you will where I come bet to place bet and then back to come as the numbers start to hit and I continue this shuttle back and forth. Is this a good idea or is there benefits after so many hits to only place or only come bets? I have only done this in practice and not the casino yet. Will you please speak to the math of this play and if you think it is at all sound to continue with this? Also, I only play in markets with 3,4,5 odds if that makes any difference to this play. I know more odds are better but I just don’t play on tables that have that option. Thanks for any insight you can give me on this kind of betting—-good and bad.
Posted by: JawBones on April 21, 2015, 11:42 pm
I read a variation by Goldfinger where he gets 2 hits first before going to a third Come bet. We started playing with that in practice. I like the idea to decrease risk a bit but, in the final analysis, we are comfortable with the spread/risk in the pure TBS method. Headed for Vegas next Friday for 4 days with a couple of friends. Looking forward to really finding out what I can do.
Full report to follow…
Thanks again Skinny for all you do for us. This goes for Dom, Doc, Rose, Mr. Finesse and all of the instructors. All of you make this journey even more fun. Thank you all.
Posted by: ThomasH on April 21, 2015, 11:55 pm
Posted by: Finisher on April 22, 2015, 3:13 am
I make a 7.00 pass line bet . But it goes like this 6.00 is for me and 1.00 next to my bet is for dealers . Then there is odds . I put 1 to 5 x on my bet and add 1.00 each time I hit a number that I have placed or come bet .Some times it takes awhile to get the dealers up to max. But they thank me a lot even if they don’t win it . I do this just so don’t have to take 1.00 out of rack to replace their bet on win .
I like to place the 6 and 8 with 1 come bet and like it when roll one of them right off the bat .I will then put the come bet up again in hopes that a repeater comes up .If not then I am up on 2 bets each for 4 total so just stay there till I win on one of them and then make a come bet again . That only gives me 3 numbers but I am willing to wait .
I have not tried placing other numbers yet but that may be in practice at a later date .
Good Rolling. π π
Posted by: DoughBoy on April 22, 2015, 4:46 pm
Posted by: Skinny on April 23, 2015, 12:17 am
"getagrip" wrote:
Skinny,
The above is the exact same problem I have had with TBS. I am not sure if I am ready to be as aggressive as you are in just getting out on six numbers as I often seem to roll a 7 on the Come out and kill the whole sequence. While I am happy to get my odds back I get frustrated by having to start over again. I have adopted a hybrid if you will where I come bet to place bet and then back to come as the numbers start to hit and I continue this shuttle back and forth. Is this a good idea or is there benefits after so many hits to only place or only come bets? I have only done this in practice and not the casino yet. Will you please speak to the math of this play and if you think it is at all sound to continue with this?
You need to go back and review what I originally wrote about TBS. I cover this in detail in that post which is in the wisdom pages. I will give you a hint for the specific answer to your question. Look for the part that begins with, "The question you ask about what to do when you throw a come out 7 is a great question. This is always a bit tricky. It usually depends…"
Here is the link to the entire post. I think you should read the entire thing again as a refresher and look at the specific part that addresses your question. Then let me know if that covers your question or not about how to handle come out sevens with TBS. http://www.goldentouchcasino.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1402&hilit
"getagrip" wrote: Also, I only play in markets with 3,4,5 odds if that makes any difference to this play. I know more odds are better but I just don’t play on tables that have that option. Thanks for any insight you can give me on this kind of betting—-good and bad.
TBS works great on 3-4-5X tables. At full odds 2 hits will pay you enough to cover 3 bets, 4 hits will pay you enough to cover all 6 numbers. Thus 8 hits will give you a profit equal to approximately what you have on the board.
Say you are at a $5 table and take full odds. If you are up on the 4,5 and 6 you have $5 on each number with $15/20/25 in odds for an initial amount at risk of $75. Each hit pays $35 so 2 hits gives you $70. It takes, $150 to cover the board with another $5 out for a come bet so that you can be "off and on" with every number from that point forward. 4 hits will pay you $140. If you seven out with the board covered after 4 hits you will still collect on the last come $5 for a total of $145 while losing $150 that is on the table. 4 hits gets you all your money back. With 8 hits you will have collected $280. That gives you a $130 profit because you have $150 on the table. At that point you start the rest of the progression as designed in TBS.
As you can see, 3-4-5X with full odds is perfect for TBS.
Posted by: Skinny on April 23, 2015, 12:22 am
"JawBones" wrote: Thank you Skinny for your reply. As I said earlier, my wife are just beginning to use it in live play. We do it with increasing the number of bets out there with each hit. Happy to do 5X odds but not quite comfortable with 10X just yet so after 8 hits we increase our odds bets until we get to 10X. So far, we haven’t had any rolls long enough to into come and place bets doing it this way but we will get there.
I think that is a great way to play when you have a 10X odds table. By going from 5X to 10X after 8 hits you are playing with a lower house advantage than at a 5X table where you have to add place/buy bets after 8 hits.
Posted by: Skinny on April 23, 2015, 12:39 am
"ThomasH" wrote: JawBones – I play at a casino that also has $5 tables with 5x odds. I have found out that on a $6 line or come bet they will let me go to $50 odds on the 6 & 8 much better than $30. Also on the 5 & 9 I can add a $1 to the base bet and I can go to $40 in odds. So that’s like getting 10x odds on the extra $1. This is similar to what Skinny does with the $15 base bet and 5x odds – pushing the house on the odds bet. Getting that extra odds money on the table makes a huge difference on a good roll, but you need to have an edge, the bankroll and the stomach for the short rolls. That extra dollar on the $5 base bet of course goes to the dealers on a win.
JawBones, you are right on with this way of playing. Casinos that have 5X odds with a $5 minimum should allow you to "push the house" with a $6 line bet exactly as you do. A $6 line bet is supposed to be treated as a 3-unit bet the same as $15,$30,$75,$150, etc. line bets are treated as 3-unit bets. Thus any casino with 5X odds and $5 minimum should allow you to take $30/40/50 in odds on a $6 line bet as you have found at the casino where you play. TBS then works perfectly just as I described 3-4-5X odds to getagrip above.
With a $6 line bet and full odds you will have $138 at risk with 3 numbers. Each hit will pay $66, thus 2 hits pays $132 or enough to approximately cover 3 numbers. You can then go up an extra number with each successive hit without risking any more than your initial amount at risk until you get to 6 numbers. If you want to be more conservative you can wait for 3 or 4 hits before going up on more numbers. 6 numbers will have $276 on the table with a $6 come bet. 4 hits will pay $264 and the last come will give an additional $6 for a total of $270 in winnings and a loss of only $6 if you seven out after 4 hits with the board covered. 8 hits will pay $528 with $276 at risk for a profit of $252 or approximately what you have at risk on the table. At that point you can proceed with the TBS progression as outlined.
I am pointing this out for all the players who may be playing at a $5 table with 5X odds. If you can afford the risk, ask if they will allow you to take $30/40/50 in odds on a $6 line bet because it is a great way to "push the house" for a better game. If the person you ask says no at first try to ask a supervisor or pit critter who may know more than the dealer. It is called a 3-unit bet and someone should know what that is and the odds you are allowed to take on the bet.
Posted by: Finisher on April 23, 2015, 8:07 am
So since you say the 6.00 line bet would be considered a 3 unite bet is this a 2.00 table ?
When you play up a unite do they not up it by the min. bet at table ?
I have never played at a table with a 25.00 min . bet so do not know . I am just use to a 5.00 table were they up it by 5.00 unless it is the 6 or 8 .
I play 6.00 on line but have never been told by dealer that I could put up more odds .Franks book says that about unite but then it does not say if it is different after you have made the min. bet and are adding to it .
I think that if you say up a unite they will add 5.00 to bet of 4,5,9,10 and 6.00 for the 6 and 8 but after reading this I may be wrong ? I think when I played on a 10.00 table that is what they did .
Good Rolling. π π
Posted by: Skinny on April 25, 2015, 5:25 am
I am saying that at a $5 minimum table that allows 5X odds if you make a line bet of $6, they should allow you to put $30/40/50 in odds on the 4&10/5&9/6&8 respectively.
Posted by: Finisher on April 28, 2015, 6:40 am
I just put the 1.00 out there to cover the dealers bet on a win so don’t have to take it out of rack .I just do the 15/20/25 .
Good Rolling.
Posted by: Skinny on April 28, 2015, 7:20 am
Here is the link to that post in the Wisdom pages:
http://www.goldentouchcasino.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=97&p=112&hilit
The definition of a unit amount has nothing to do with the minimum. It just so happens for folks who are betting the minimum, when they say up a unit, the dealer knows they mean the minimum because that is the least they can add to their bet. But if you had a $60 place bet on the 6 or 8 and said up a unit the dealer would not know what you considered a unit unless you told him. You could want him to raise your bet $6, 12, 30 or 60. He would have to know what you considered to be a unit in that case. But when you have a $6 place bet on the 6 or 8, up a unit can only mean one thing.
When it comes to line bets the unit amount means what I have described in the post above. Once again it has nothing to do with the minimum allowed on the table.
Posted by: Finisher on April 28, 2015, 1:31 pm
Good Rolling. π π