I went to a lot of trouble to create this post (as a draft) in "CRAPS"
and couldn’t figure how to transfer it to "OTHER GAMES".
Sorry to present it here:
I imagine this to be a math/statistics/probability/odds problem.
So Skinny (right up your alley?) and/or someone else may want to look into this challenge?
The Keno video machine displays 80 numbers at the start, an array of 1 thru 80 on the screen.
You select one or more ‘spots’, with a maximum of 10 spots for only 25 cents per play.
The Keno video machine randomly flags 10 winners among the 80 numbers.
You win according to the payscale below.
For example, for your 25 cents,
(a) If you selected 8 spots and got 3 hits, you lost (get back 0 credits).
(b) If you selected 8 spots and got 7 hits, you win 1,670 credits (1670x25cents).
Question:
(1) What is the optimum number of spots to play for the best returns?
(2) What number of spots would be fruitless to select?
(3) Is this payscale unusual, more player friendly than normal?
(4) Any other insights or questions?
The payscale:
……………… S P O T S selected ……………..
……….1….2…..3…..4…..5……6……7…….8…..9…….10
1 hit ….3
2 hits …….15…..2…..2
3 hits ………….48…..5…..3…..3……1
4 hits ………………100 …13…..4……2…….2…….1
5 hits …………………… 838… 75….22……13…… 6…… 5
6 hits ………………………..1,660..422…..100….. 44….. 24
7 hits ……………………………..7,000..1,670…..362….146
8 hits ……………………………………10,000..4,700..1,000
9 hits …………………………………………..10,000..4,500
10 hits …………………………………………………10,000
Replies:
Posted by: Dr Crapology on March 13, 2015, 4:24 pm
Just a little thought from the peanut gallery.
Doc
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on March 13, 2015, 5:27 pm
You answered question (4).
After the anticipated inputs for the other questions,
I have a surprise revelation.
7×7
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on March 13, 2015, 5:47 pm
I stated:
"The Keno video machine randomly flags 10 winners among the 80 numbers."
Shouldn’t that have read .."20 winners". .. ?
Right?
Posted by: Skinny on March 13, 2015, 11:52 pm
"SevenTimesSeven" wrote:
Question:
(1) What is the optimum number of spots to play for the best returns?
(2) What number of spots would be fruitless to select?
(3) Is this payscale unusual, more player friendly than normal?
(4) Any other insights or questions?The payscale:
……………… S P O T S selected ……………..
……….1….2…..3…..4…..5……6……7…….8…..9…….10
1 hit ….3
2 hits …….15…..2…..2
3 hits ………….48…..5…..3…..3……1
4 hits ………………100 …13…..4……2…….2…….1
5 hits …………………… 838… 75….22……13…… 6…… 5
6 hits ………………………..1,660..422…..100….. 44….. 24
7 hits ……………………………..7,000..1,670…..362….146
8 hits ……………………………………10,000..4,700..1,000
9 hits …………………………………………..10,000..4,500
10 hits …………………………………………………10,000
[pre]Number
of Spots 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Expected 75.0 90.2 94.4 94.8 94.9 95.0 94.9 94.9 91.6 93.2
Return %[/pre]
Answers:
(1) What is the optimum number of spots to play for the best returns?
Playing 6 spots provides the best return, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 are not bad. (But see my response to question 4 below)
(2) What number of spots would be fruitless to select?
Playing 1 is horrible, 2, 9 and 10 are bad but not as poor as 1.
(3) Is this payscale unusual, more player friendly than normal?
It is much better than the paper game. But the pace is a lot faster so unless you pace it like the paper game you will lose more in the long run because of the speed with which you are losing.
(4) Any other insights or questions?
Follow Doc’s advice regarding video poker. The HA on this game is much worse than on VP. You can not get an advantage at this game. If you know someone who must play this game make sure it is for small stakes. Set loss limits and win limits. Use gambling money management techniques (which are significantly different from an advantage player in craps).
In question 1 you asked about what provides the best return and that is 6 spots. But the variance is much lower when playing 3 or 4 spots by a factor of 10 over playing 6 spots. I think it would be better to play 4 spots to keep the fluctuation in your money lower even though you are giving up 0.1% in expected return.
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on March 15, 2015, 2:38 pm
Thanks for your input.
The surprise revelation I promised was this:
Since my craps practice was showing my SRR as being that of a Randy,
I backed off playing craps and tried the Jacks-or-Better Video Poker.
But then during the course of so many visits at the same VP machine
I came to know the regular Keno player sitting next to me.
In trying to win him over to the GTC way I found that he was,
thank you, doing so well at his Keno that I eventually called his machine
his piggy bank. You know what that means.
One day even while I was playing my Jack-or-Better, within a few hopurs
he hit two hand-payout jackpots!
And I confidently expect at least one hand-payout at his every session at VK.
The "returns" often stated for Keno (or for any other game?) may be assumed
easily by most to indicate which game is worth playing.
But this is disputed by David Stratton writing on the website "CasinoCanter.com".
He argues that video Keno is a better bet than video Poker, comparing
payback returns vs the odds of achieving those returns.
Very interesting, since I was wondering how come my Keno friend is doing so well
vs my VP efforts. Up to this point I was thinking there was and is some electronic
or machanical fault in his machine and I advised him to milk his piggy bank while
it lasted, before the guys upstairs find out.
7×7
Posted by: brothelman on March 15, 2015, 11:38 pm
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on March 15, 2015, 11:45 pm
"brothelman" wrote: Where is this keno game at.
BM,
Cannot say, on this site.
I was interested to know whether this machine was more user-friendly than others.
Do you know? Is the payscale very liberal?
7×7