Well I posted this session before but will just say or tell this again .
I decided before going to table that I was going to do come bets for a change just to see .
I started out getting 3 come bets up and then made my point and 7 out .
Then I got out on 4 come bets made my point 7 out .Which made every body happy even the DPlayer. Then got on 3 come bets made one for first win then made my point . Inext put 2.00 on 7 for a come out 7 so lost a little .
Then got on 5 come bets and made my point again and asked the dealer how much I needed on the 7 to cover my bets .I rolled apoint then made one come bet and 7 nd out .With other numbers in between the roll was good for every body at the table BUT me .It was fun . 🙂 🙂

This subject can be like quicksand but if the math works the math works. You keep good records and your analysis can speak for itself. You are an Advantage player and should play to your strengths. I understand the vig and the statistics and how it works over 10,000 rolls But when I practice I play with chips and the sooner I can get the 6&8 to 90 dollars the better off the outcome. I typically use Billy’s progression and it works quite well. There is a lot to like about the come bet on short rolls but if you don’t start with a 6 or 8 for you pass line number and hit the other of the 6 or 8 with you first come bet then you may roll a lot of numbers before you start to make any money. If you have 4 and or 10 come bets there is the desire to get on a 6 or 8 and you get tempted into making that third come bet and you still may not have put any money in the rack or got on the 6 or 8. Now you have four bets on the table and have yet to put any chips back into the rack.
If you know your roll and things are looking right then go with the flow. What we need is someone with a Ph’D in Game Theory from Wharton School of Business to sort out your question. And I actually think there are no absolutes including this one. Good Luck and keep tracking those rolls.

Breeze –

What is Billy’s progression? I’m assuming it is a 6/8 strategy?

I usually put up the 6 and 8 for $30 or $60 each (sometimes $12 each!), depending on how I’m feeling. That sets the unit size. Like I’ve mentioned before, I like to feed the uncovered numbers with a $10 or $20 place bet until I have all the numbers covered. Many times, a non-6/8 box number will become a super star during a roll. But, using a $60 unit on 6/8, once all the numbers have a bet on them, next 6/8 hit, I would press it $30 so it looks like $90. Every other hit after that is pressed a $60 unit. If I get lucky enough to get it up to $270 or $330, I’ll collect the hit at $270 or $330; next hit, I’ll press to $600 and start the sequence again ( I’ve never made it past that first hit at $270, but I’ve got the system in place for when it happens). On a bad ass roll with lots of 6s and 8s, working from that 600 level, you could conceivably hit table max with some extraordinary luck. When I grow up, I’m going to just start with a $600 6 and 8!

Always looking to improve. I know the strict math favors come bets on all the numbers. Where I get into a mental debate with myself is in considering the fact that we do control the outcome of the dice somewhat which means that 6s and 8s are going to show more often than random, and random is where the math comes from. Even the GTC primers tell you that your advantage is greatest over the 6 and 8, so why not put those in play from the get go? To my way of thinking, once you are past 3 or 4 rolls on a placed 6/8, you are dead even with the come bets. Biggest risk with early place betting is the early 7. In practice, however, I’ve found that you can easily lose the same amount come betting as with placing the 6/8. Often, in practice, come betting, I’ll be working on getting 3 numbers on the layout and in the process, I’ll hit a 6 or 8 that would have been a paying number had I placed it in the beginning. Then, on a bad roll, I might get the 3 come bets up and 7 out. If I had placed the 6 or 8, I would have at least collected a little bit. Of course, no two rolls are ever the same. The feeling of missing the boat is even worse when you come bet to the 6 and 8 after making a different number as your point on the first roll!

Surprised that I haven’t gotten a math lecture from one of the gurus by now. : )

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

I am a Place bettor. I do use a Come bet if I bet on a randie after the 5 count as they statistically are random and I want that next toss to be a 7 or 11 but psychologically I just can’t bet Come bets on myself as the come out 7’s just deflate me. Not saying this is good thinking but just the way it is for me.

Here is my thinking and it may be just rationalization or total BS or both! 😆 I would like to hear some feedback/discussion to see if my thinking has any validity at all.

Depending on my SRR calculated over many tosses and the fact that my dice are doing what they are supposed to be doing that day then I would say I am exerting some influence over the dice at that time. Now I haven’t done any hard calculations on this so the numbers I am going to use here are just for illustration and to explain my thinking.

The only time I am wanting a 7 is on my initial Come Out toss. After that, if I have Come bets out I will be trying to avoid the 7’s even on Come Out tosses. Not saying I will avoid them but that I am trying to use my influence to avoid them and certainly not use a 7 rich set. Say that I am diluting the 7 with my influence. Then all of a sudden the power of the 7 is not as great as it would first seem. Maybe now the Passline bet is actually 1.49 and the bet on the 6 or 8 is 1.54 because of this influence. Now say that I am not doing Come bets and I am using Place bets instead. Now I can use my influence to toss 7’s on the Come out rolls and if I am successful then I am again diluting the math on my overall betting scheme to an even lower level (not discussing the 11’s on Come Outs as they pay in either instance and are not detrimental to Come bets).

Now, I don’t think that I could ever really make Place bets better mathematically than Come bets with odds but I think the math gets close enough that it is not really worth using a bet I don’t like over one that I am comfortable with. It is fun to look at the throwing stats at home to see if a certain betting strategy over the long haul is better for me than another and should definitely be considered. When I am at the real tables though and consider the psychological effect of starting over to get those Come bets back out after a Come out 7 it is just not worth it to me. Now if my at home stats in the future show (and they don’t now) that I would really be winning a LOT more money if I did Come betting then I guess I would become a believer.

Just some ideas thrown out. Certainly not a math expert as you can tell by my rant! 😀

What say you?

I’m not a math ‘expert’ for sure. I do understand the basics of why the come bet odds give you an even game against the house on the odds portion. My thinking, however, is more along these lines: If I am avoiding 7s, what are the most likely numbers in the box that will hit when the roll is not a 7? Well, if you eliminate the 7, 6 and 8 still have the most potential combinations for being made. I think that is why the GTC book shows that you get an edge over the 6 and 8 with a minimally good SRR but that the SRR has to be better to get an edge over the other numbers. Since the casinos ( most of them ) have created the 3, 4,5x odds structure, a $5 passline bet on the 6 or 8 with $25 behind it pays the same as a $30 place bet on the same numbers. The difference, the good and the bad, is that you are on the number on roll number 2 rather than waiting for the dice to select a bet that will pay the same anyway. Now, the debate gets more interesting at a casino like the one in Shreveport that offers 100x odds or even a casino that offers 10x. I’d like to hear the explanation on that one, because I would think the come bets might be better in that scenario. On 10x, a $5 6 with $50 behind the line still pays out $65 on $55 at risk. A straight up $60 6 pays you $70, and you’re still on the number right away. When it comes to the 5 and 9, that same $50 pays out $70 on the odds and $5 on the flat, i.e. $75. A placed $50 5 or 9 pays $70 with a buck less at risk. I’ve been playing this game since the early 80s and until GTC, I would never have made place bets, but with even my modest skill, I want to be on the best numbers as early as I can, and it works better for me than making come bets. Like you said, the 7 always seems to ruin the party, and it seems to take forever to get all the numbers covered ( if that’s your goal ). Racking the green and spreading the love and then pressing the newly hit numbers is not too terribly risky and gets potentially hot numbers in play for a relatively small outlay. It works for me. Surely, somebody is going to tell me I’m completely off base and that the math proves me wrong every time. I do find that come betting seems at times to expose you to less losses early on, but after a few rolls, things even out a bit. I know guys who will go with green all the way across from the start, and I know that’s risky, but if you hit a big roll, you’ll kill with that kind of strategy if you have a good progression going. Just my thoughts. Proof is always in the puddin’

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

Alamo,

Good points!

I forgot to mention in my post that I was only talking about Place on the 6 & 8 for myself as well. I agree with your analysis of those being the ones mathematically if you want to Place bet. Also, I agree with your ideas on playing where large odds are offered. I don’t play in those markets so I usually don’t think in that direction on my scripted play. I would have to rethink it if I played with 10X or greater odds. I am not sure I would do anything or be able to afford to play anything except Pass and as much odds as my bankroll would allow in that case. Probably still wouldn’t make Come bets with large odds but understand your analysis of such.

I am a place bettor. I follow Stickman’s progression and don’t press until I have as much $ in my rack as I have on the table. Anyone with a small bankroll like me can’t really afford to come bet and put max odds or even modest odds out on the table on 3 or 4 come bets before making any profit.

Up a unit is also an easy way to follow and lends itself to not breaking your "zone" when you have the dice.

Colorado’s $100 max bet also slows your profit making. You can get to $310 on a 10X table via 1 place bet, one come bet and one buy bet on any number.

That’s my 2 cents worth.

OMC

Now I’ve heard the name of two progressions, but no description of what they are. What is the Stickman’s progression? I’d love to give it a drive.

I did not mean to infer that I start ‘spreading the love’ as I call it, from the first hit. Sometimes I’ll do that on the first hand. If that hand is a loser, then on the next two hands, I’ll recoup the number of bets on the table by making the number of full, $70 hits = to the number of bets in play, before beginning to spread out. For example, let’s say the point is a 5 and I’m at a $5 table; I had a losing first hand, and I’m on my second try at it. I’ll put $20 behind the 5 and place the 6 and 8 for $60 each. If I hit a 6 or 8, I’ll rack the first hit of $70. If I hit the 5, I’ll take the $35 payout and place the 5 for $50 on the next come out. So, let’s say the next point is a 4 and I’ve pressed up the 5 to $50. If I hit the 5, I rack the $70. If I then hit the 6, 8 or 5, for a $70 payout, I’ll spread $20 of that last hit to one of the open numbers ( I’ll have $15 behind the 4 already). Point being, once I’ve hit 3 numbers, I’ve got my layout risk back in the rack and am free to see what happens. If I have 3 losing hands, even if they are close to even, I walk. If I have any roll at a table that is 15 or more, I walk after that roll regardless of the result. Statistically, the next roll or two is not likely to also be a 15+. Rest time. Statistically, if you have an SRR of 7, you will average 9.7 (apx) rolls per hand vs 8.5 for a random roller. So, 15+ is a nice hand, and I don’t press my luck. People have told me that is too conservative for them, but it works for me, and I rarely leave a big pile of money at the table in any one session.

Let me know what Stickman’s progression is.

Alamo

Alamo, this is a great thread. I don’t know how to link to earlier posts but Skinny had a link to Stickman’s Progression in a March Post on betting. I don’t think the links work here but the post is copied below with the date of the post so you might be able to search and get a live link. The articles are on the GTC website.

Hope this helps.
JBones

Re: Betting

Postby Skinny » 19 Mar 2014 17:39
Following are the Stickman’s articles on progressions:

What is the "Best" Progression for You?

What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Two)

What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Three of Three)
Bet smart, the math always wins. Smart players are the luckiest players.

"JawBones" wrote: Skinny had a link to Stickman’s Progression in a March Post on betting.
Following are the Stickman’s articles on progressions:

Here is the link to that post:

http://www.goldentouchcasino.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8092&p=22189#p22189

Thanks Skinny. I am going to have to learn how to create links.

"JawBones" wrote: I am going to have to learn how to create links.

Let me know if the following 2 links help you.

In this first one you only need to read the first part that covers Generic copy information:
http://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000867.htm

In this second one they are describing how to copy into an email. You can use the same method for copying a link into a post.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZiNYBcK5ok

"Skinny" wrote: [quote="JawBones"]I am going to have to learn how to create links.

Let me know if the following 2 links help you.

In this first one you only need to read the first part that covers Generic copy information:
http://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000867.htm

In this second one they are describing how to copy into an email. You can use the same method for copying a link into a post.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZiNYBcK5ok

Thanks again, Skinny. For some reason I thought it would be more difficult than that. Pretty simple. Thanks for helping.

PS. Sorry to hi-jack this thread!

Got those links and am going to print and study them. I’m sure I’ll learn something. Much appreciated.

Alamo

I remember writing a post (on the old site) on Come vs 6/8 place bets. Using an SRR of 7 (made the math easier), with I think 3-4-5 odds, gave a slight nod to the placing the 6/8 since the power of the Come bet is the early 7 when first place.

I used to be a Place bettor. I have found that I am doing better with Come bets, even starting out with 2x odds. I started experimenting at home, and have done better in the casino. Yes, I do hit more 6/8 but I also tend to repeat outside numbers. Maybe not as much as 6/8, but with the payout on the odds, I put more chips in my rack. Come bets get me up on the numbers I am hitting. Many times I would have 6/8 placed and then just hit mostly outside numbers. Being 10-15 rolls into a hand and only hitting one or two place bets mentally take a toll. And we all know what happens when the mental side starts going (ready for another lap around the bowl?). Sure I have had 9 as a point then have Comes travel the the 4 and 10, and then hit nothing but 5/6/8, but most of the time one of the Come bets will hit.

I like the early protection I get with Come bets, Point 7 out tend to sting just a little bit less. If I get knocked off by a 7 on the comeout roll, many times it is the canary in a coal mine. It sure is nice to not have all that money on the table at the end.

You can try what I did, it took about a month of practice sessions before I found out Come bets worked better for me. 2 different bettors (place and come) and see which rack is more filled at the end. That way you are using the same rolls, same emotional highs and lows, pressing or spreading out as you normally would. That way you don’t fall into the trap of Monday morning Quarterback from looking at old data. Comapre apples to apples as it were. I was a hardcore Place bettor. I have found Come bets work better for me.

I’ve tried everything I can think of to do better with come bets, but they just don’t max out for me. I even tried come betting early and then keeping a 6 or 8 up as a place bet if it hit on the come. But, what I’ve found is that I win more money on fewer rolls with placing the 6 & 8. I also like to spread to the other numbers as I hit the 6 & 8, because then I have a chance to repeat some of the other box numbers. Spreading to the other numbers also has a conservative effect vs playing only the 6 & 8 and pressing them. As illustrated below, when you rack the green and spread the red, you are pulling risk off the table and spreading out at the same time.

As an example, right now, in practice I’m doing something like this:

Point on PL is a $5 Five, with no odds.
Place the 6 & 8 for $60 each.
First hit on either 6 or 8, press to $120. You want them both at $120 as soon as possible.
First hit on a 6 or an 8 at the $120 level, you rack $100 and move $40 to odds/place on the 5. You place $20 and put up $20 odds.
You had $125 at risk; on first hit you’re only exposed for $25)
2d,3d, 4th hits, same thing until 9, 4 and 10 are also placed at $40. By the time the board is covered, you will have racked $400 or so.
When any $40 number hits, press it to $100. You may get an early repeater to help with spreading out.
Once all the numbers have a bet on them, any $100/$120 unit that hits gets collected but the next time it hits, you bump it a full unit to $200/$240; after that, every time it hits again, you press it a $100 or $120 unit for as long as the roll lasts.
For me, the $40 spread to an open number is akin to a low risk come bet that gets pressed on the first hit. The only difference is that you decide to place the number rather than wait for a come bet to determine what the number will be.

What usually happens is that numbers will begin to hit at the $100/$120 number and 3 or 4 of them will be collected before it is time to press a full unit on a particular number. You make a really good profit that way and, unless you just get unlucky, you’ll make a lot happen with 15+ rolls. You get into the 30s, and its all black chips.

This works for me, and it may not be everyone’s comfort level, but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been on a 10 or some other number and have it come 3 times in short order. When that happens, its nice to be on the number! The ONLY downside to this approach is that the evil ‘point-7’ or some other low roll wipes out that $125 all at once. But, I’ve seen that happen plenty of times to myself with 3 come bets with odds on the board. No hits and then a 7. Same shitty feeling, either way.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo