Last time in downtown Vegas I was playing The big Skinny and had made my point on the Pass line.
I had three come bets working and on my come out roll I hit the seven. Naturally all my odds came back to me and my contract bets were taken. I was playing on a 10x odds table and I asked if they would let me pay the contract bets and stay up on the come with the odds instead of taking it down. They said yes and I gave them fifteen dollars and continued to shoot and establish a forth number. My question is from a math standpoint, am I better off taking the odds down and starting over? or just paying the fifteen to leave the bets up? I know that if I am shooting well it is a judgment call. Sometimes it is the best towards the end of a long roll if you are feeling tired. What does the math Say? I feel that if I truly have an edge, it would be best to bet into that edge and keep rolling as though it may be the big one. Anyway, I would appreciate any feedback. DoughBoy
Replies:
Posted by: NofieldFive on July 2, 2014, 1:49 am
I believe that if you have a strong edge, the math on a 10X Odds game would be in your favor if you paid the flat bet and put them back up. I have had this discussion many times with my GTC friends over the years. Many have the opinion that the power of the Come bet is the appearance of the 7. I can’t disagree with that. But if you have a strong proven edge over the game then the odds of the 7 appearing is diminished by a huge amount. I believe that offsets the advantage of the 7 on a come bet.
Would I do it. No, I just don’t like to do put bets.
The effect is the same for an advantage player who has place bets and works them on the comeout roll.
Just my 2 cents worth. Definitely not the GTC recommended way to play the game.
NFF
Posted by: TommyC on July 2, 2014, 2:57 am
TommyC
Posted by: Chuckman on July 2, 2014, 3:05 am
Let us assume you want to keep that quantity of money in play on those numbers. Are you better off making a put bet with 10x odds or plaing a bet?
On the 6 and 8 you would have a $5 put bet and $50 odds. If you won it would be $65 or 118.18% of the amount you bet.
If you place the 6 or 8 for $54 you win $63. This is 116.66% of the amount bet.
Edge goes to the put bet with 10x odds.
5 and 9 are a little easier because the amount at risk stays the same.
$5 put with $50 odds win you $80. $55 placed wins you $77. Put bet is clearly the choice.
4 and 10 have a few more variables.
$5 put with $50 odds win you $105, 190.9% of the amount bet.
$55 placed and you win $99. This is 180% of the amount bet, clearly inferior.
If the casino will let you buy the 4 or 10 at $55 for only a $2 vig:
If you pay the vig when the buy is made you are risking $57 to win $110. This is 192.98%.
If you pay the vig on the win you are risking $55 to win $108. This is 196.36%.
If the casino makes you pay a $3 vig when you buy the 4 or 10 for $55:
If you pay the vig when the buy is made you are risking $58 to win $110. This is 189.65%.
If you pay the vig on the win you are risking $55 to win $107. This is 194.54%.
So, in conclusion:
If you are at a table that has a $5 minimum bet, allows 10x odds and will allow you to make a put bet;
and if you roll a come out 7 and absolutely want to get that same amount of money back in play on the same numbers that you had previously established as come bets:
on the 5, 6, 8 and 9 you should make the $5 put bet with $50 odds;
you should buy the 4 or 10 for $55 unless the casino charges a $3 vig when the buy is made, in which case you would make the $5 put bet with $50 odds.
Posted by: Skinny on July 2, 2014, 4:25 am
As a point of reference, I would not make the put bets right after throwing the seven on the come out roll. I would do it after I establish my point. There is no reason to have the base bet at risk until after the point is established just in case you throw another seven on the same come out roll. I would not have given them the fifteen dollars right then and there. I would take the odds back and make the put bets I want to make after establishing the point.
That reminds me of an argument I got into with a dealer at a casino (which no longer exists by the way) I was playing at for the first time in Baton Rouge. I was on a good roll, up on four or five numbers and threw a seven on a come out roll. I wanted to stay up on the six and eight because I was hitting those numbers, had a large enough profit and was going to place those numbers on my next hits anyway. It was only a 5X odds table so I threw the dealer $10 and told him to give me a $30 six and $30 eight. I threw another seven on the next roll and the dealer took down my $10 and started to give me back my odds. I argued with him that I had asked for place bets not put bets. He said he thought I wanted put bets. I said why would I want to make a put bet that pays the same amount of money as a place bet when I can not win the base bet only lose it with a come out seven. But with a place bet I don’t lose anything with a come out seven. Why would I want to make a bet that can only lose me money and I can not win when both bets pay the same amount of money?
You did not mention where you were in relation to the roll when your come bets came down. I believe one advantage of The Big Skinny is that you get your money on the table a bit slower in the beginning of a roll. I like to collect some profit before I put my total initial amount at risk on the table. I would only make the put bets if I had enough of a profit in my rails to justify having them back up on the table. Otherwise I might make put bets on the number I had hit previously and keep the rest of the money coming down in the rails.
I certainly would not make the put bets if I did not have any hits up to that point. In that case I would rather get my money back up on the table slower and protect my bankroll that just came back to me.
Posted by: DoughBoy on July 4, 2014, 2:44 pm
Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 5, 2014, 1:33 pm
However here are some other ideas along this line but different situations. You make want to give some thought to these situations.
1. After making a point with 4 or 5 come and or place bets up do you have the bets working including odds and place bets? If you roll one of your working numbers your are a hero> Howver, if you roll a come out 7 you lose all of your bets including the odds and place bets not just the base bet. AND you still have the dice and you have just had a big lose to the casino. If, for example, you had 4 bets working with $50 odds on each come bet you just lost $200 plus the bast bets. That would, at the very least be a blow to your confidence. It may well make you lose your focus and as previously mentioned, you still have the dice–remember a lot of dice control is between the ears. We are not willing to take that chance. Besides it is out of the norm at the table and will bring attention to you. We get enough attention simply by the way we roll. We know that when we have one of these come out rolls, you may well hit one of the numbers you don’t have working but you only "don’t win" one payday but with the numbers not working you can’t lose the odds or place bets. A come out roll after making your point is a time you can rest—like a batter in baseball stepping back to to refocus for the next pitch.
2. On your initial come out roll you feel you have an excellent edge and spread $220 inside with the numbers working on that come out roll. If you roll a come out 7, $220 down the drain and you still have the dice. We actually witnessed a player do this and then spread $440 inside and again roll a come out 7 and is now down $660. He bet the $440 again, set a point, had a couple of pay days, and then had the 7 out. Certainly not a profitable turn with the dice–8 or 9 rolls and 3 of them 7’s. Again this type of play calls attention to you, the shooter, and we don’t need that.
As a last comment we don’t set for the 7 for 2 reasons. One, winning $5 or $10 on the come out roll is not a big deal, we prefer to set a point take odds and have a much larger payday. Secondly, other than the initial come out roll as a courtesy to other come betters at the table we do not set for the 7.
Just some thoughts for others to digest, use or discard as their personal preferences dictate.
Rose and Doc
Posted by: Stephen C on July 5, 2014, 2:05 pm
And for grins, when I have the Dice, I’ll hop the 3 seven combos for a buck and parlay. That is of course if none of my friends have Come bets up. And I expect the same courtesy in return.
Posted by: Skinny on July 5, 2014, 9:26 pm
"Skinny" wrote: I would only make the put bets if I had enough of a profit in my rails to justify having them back up on the table.
I said this in my reply and I want to emphasize it again because it is the critical point I use in determining whether or not I put more money on the table after a come out seven.
I have to be very deep into a roll, feel like I am rolling well and have collected AT LEAST eight hits and be at the point where I am double dipping or was going to double dip on my next hit. By double dip, I mean I have both a come and place bet on the numbers because I have made a big enough profit that I want to put more money on the table than just the come bets.
If I were at that point in a roll, generally at least 25 to 30 into a roll or so, I would probably put more money back on the table after a come out seven. If I were on all the numbers and all my come bets came down, I might go back up on 2 – 4 numbers in addition to my point depending on how I felt about the roll and which numbers I had been hitting. Normally I would go back up with place bets because I usually play at a 5X odds table and put bets are bad bets at 5X odds. But if I were at a 10X or more odds table, I would use put bets if they paid better than place bets (normally that is the inside numbers at 10X). At 20X or more put bets are better than place bets on all numbers, but sometimes you can buy the numbers and then you should make whichever bet pays best, ie. put, buy or place.
Having said the above, I also understand Doc’s point in that he does not want to put more money on the table after a come out seven. Certainly there is something wrong with your toss when you throw a come out seven. You just got lucky that it was on the come out, not during the point cycle. Some may feel this is an indication they are losing their shot. If you have any doubts you should not put more money on the table. Let the roll progress normally with your come bets and see what happens.
But you are costing yourself money when you do not put more money on the table when the roll justifies doing so. As I tried to point out in my article entitled, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, those who are overly conservative cost themselves more money by not taking advantage of their opportunities when they occur. Instead of saving money, they are losing money creating the exact position they are trying to avoid.
I know this is tricky which is why I stress you have to know yourself and your game. Understand your 401G and how much you can wager based on its size. Determine your tolerance for risk to decide how much you are willing to wager. Once you have made those decisions, figure out how you want to bet in all situations consistent with the previous two points.
Finally with a betting pattern resolved, figure out how much you can reasonably expect to win with different size rolls, 5-9, 10-20, 20-30, 30+. Then you should have a realistic idea of what will be happening at the table and not second guessing yourself with thoughts like, should a, could a, would a, etc. You should not get upset about not making enough money if you do not know how much you should be expecting to make based on your betting pattern and how much you are wagering.
Please do not misunderstand what I am saying. I am not trying to talk people into betting more or being more aggressive. I want you to feel comfortable with what and how you wager. Then understand how much you can expect to be winning given that betting pattern. I want you to know what to anticipate so that your expectations are consistent with reality.
Posted by: DoughBoy on July 6, 2014, 2:38 am
Posted by: brothelman on July 6, 2014, 5:58 am
Now if it was a bad break then maybe place the bets depending on how the dice felt.
Posted by: DoughBoy on July 6, 2014, 9:19 pm
Posted by: brothelman on July 7, 2014, 2:02 am
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on July 7, 2014, 10:05 pm
If you have your come bets with odds sitting there after you’ve made a point,
are you allowed to call your come bets OFF on the new come-out,
until you’ve established a new point?
Posted by: ACPA on July 7, 2014, 11:40 pm
Noah
Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on July 8, 2014, 1:33 am
Just want to know if you can preserve your come bets
from being taken down on a come-out seven,
by turning them off.
Cannot bets be turned off at any roll of the dice?
Posted by: ACPA on July 8, 2014, 2:00 am
Before you might ask the flat part of a "put" bet is just like the flat part of a come bet. It becomes a contract bet also.
Noah
Posted by: Finisher on July 8, 2014, 5:48 am
Good Rolling . LOL Hope everybody had a great 4th .