Tex,

While I agree it is harder to roll a 4/10 than it is to roll a 6/8 you, liket I have seen other people do, have focused only on the chance of something happening without considering what the pays are when they happen.

Think about that and see if you change your thought pattern.

Noah

Ithink that if a 4 was rolled 2 or 3 times during that 5 count I would wait a little longer before making that bet. 😀 😀 Just a thought.
Good Rolling. 😀

In the short run you have no other choice than to bet as if it is the long run because there are no methods for predicting what is about to happen now, the throw after now, or after that or for this session. The only guideline you actually have that is real is the math. With that said, the reality in a few minutes or hours can be shockingly different than what the math "seems" to say. Still, those results have no predictive value. You must bet the math.

With every bet you (or I) make, pretend you are at that moment betting for every craps player playing the game all over the world — millions of them. You decide to bet against the 4 or 10. What is the best, the only way to bet? You must go with the math. Therefore, you must go for the math on yourself even if you are the only one in the world betting at that precise moment.

I seems that what you’re really doing by laying the 4 or 10, as an alternative way to play during a CF turn, is to gamble that what I call ‘immediate probabilities’ are in your favor, regardless of the simultaneous play of millions of hypothetical players. While I understand and appreciate the mathematically calculated odds, probabilities short term must also exist, for a certain table in space and time. Can they be measured? Not by me. In essence aren’t you making the equivalent of a repeating one roll PROPOSITION BET, 7 against the 4 on each roll? In other words, what are the chances on the next roll — after you’ve already 5 counted the shooter, which could be 8 or 10 rolls if he’s laid down a lot of junk — that a 4 will roll vs the odds that a 7 will roll. The proposition repeats on each roll. Mathematically, we can all agree that a 7 is a better one roll bet than a 4.

In practice over just a couple of sessions, admittedly, I have won more than I’ve lost….but, I have lost…but no more than I might expect with 5 counting and placing 6 and 8. And, the way I was practicing, I would lay a 4 or a 10 at the end of the 5 count and if, during the 5 count, one of them rolled and the other did not, I would select the one that had rolled, the idea involving another question: During a given hand, what are the odds that a 10 will actually repeat before a 7 is rolled? That must also have some probabilities associated with it? So far, it’s been an amusing way to stay involved during the 5 count and seems to be just as good as placing the 6 and 8 or making a come bet with odds on a number established after the 5 count. In all the scenarios, we know the 7 is looming out there somewhere. I can’t tell you how many times the 7 has wiped out my come bet with odds on the next roll or two after the bet is established.

BTW, if I lay a 4 or 10 for $25, what will the house pay, given the 5% vig after the win? I’ve been assuming $11 net, since the commission would round up to $1 rather than down like it does on double the amount, making anything less than a $50 lay bet an even worse proposition. Obviously, on $50 laid, they would pay you $25 (true odds), less the 5% commission of $1 ( I assume they let you push them on lay bets too). So, at a $50 lay bet, vig paid on win, don’t you reduce the 2.44% house advantage a tad by pushing the house?

And, what about laying 4 AND 10 for $25 each. If one rolls, the other is not likely to roll before a 7, after a 5 count. A bit of a hedge, if you will, akin to placing 6 and 8 to reduce your exposure.

My brain is awash in the nuances associated with immediate probability vs long term probability. Scientifically, both must surely exist and may be independent from one another. Apparently, the legendary Captain figured out that the 7 is likely to roll somewhere during a 5 count about 40% of the time. That’s why you avoid 60% of the 7 out situations. Seems the reverse would be true. You are expecting the 7 during a random roll due to the 1:6 math. You are also expecting the other numbers, but there are more ways to make a 7 than a 4 or 10 and it seems the chances of one of those ‘ways’ appearing increases as the number of rolls increases….expectation vs mathematical probability. Has expectation been measured?

Finally, if there are novice gamblers reading this, I want to stress that this is something I’m having fun with, maybe as a way to play while CFs are rolling, NOT A LONG TERM STRATEGY FOR WINNING AT CRAPS. I suspect that if you got on every roll and tried to lay the 4 or 10 as a strategy, you’d ultimately get it handed to you. If my idea sounds credible, that does not mean it is a substitute for skill, which is what our game is ultimately about.

Gracias, amigos.

AlamoTx

AlamoTx,

You have asked some excellent questions and have received great responses as well. It is a difficult concept to wrap your head around and that is why Frank’s answer is the best. RodrigoR has summarized it concisely by saying CIII’s chart gives you the data and Frank’s advice is to treat the short run as the long run so go with the math.

Part of your questions concerned the HA so let me get the easy one out of the way first. A lay bet on the 4 or 10 when the commission is paid up front is 2.44% as you have said. If they let you push the house with a $51 lay the HA would be 1.96%. If the commission is paid on the win only a $40 lay bet with $1 commission when the bet wins on the 4 or 10 has a HA of 1.64%. If the commission is paid on the win only and they let you push the house a $50 lay bet with $1 commission when the bet wins on the 4 or 10 has a HA of 1.32%.

Now the rest of your posts seem to focus on the issue of the short term vs. the long term and what does that mean mathematically? It is actually possible to calculate the chance of losing the HA in a one hour session. If you recall or you may read it because I think I copied the entire thread on the subject, DB+W kept arguing a similar point about what he called the Rule of 495. He claimed we and all others were misleading people by stating the HA of 1.41% on the pass line wager. After I got tired of his bugging me to do the math, I calculated the probability of getting exactly a 1.41% HA with 244 wins and 251 losses on 495 pass line decisions. As suspected it was a very small number around 3.5% as I recall. But then I also calculated the probability of having a range of wins and losses close to 244/251 that would yield a HA very close to 1.41%. There would be a 60% probability that you could have results within 17 combinations of the ideal 244/251. In other words from 236/259 to 252/243 win/loss combinations would have a 60% probability. Thus in the short run you would have a 60% chance of experiencing a HA between -2.63% and +1.82%.

The same thing would be true if I were to calculate the range for the HA on any bet over a one hour session. Yes, I could calculate a likely range for the HA for a lay bet on the 4 or 10 over a one hour session. That range would probably be pretty wide because a one hour session is a very short sample size.

BUT and here is the rub, every one hour session you play gets added up over the life of your craps playing career. In the end craps players who play as much craps as most of the folks on this board can expect to play enough sessions to have a big enough sample to qualify as the "long run". The results of all their wagers on random players will be very close to the HA for a random game. The pendulum swings both ways in all those short term sessions. But craps players like to think they are immune to the laws of math of the game. They believe they can experience some good luck in the short term and end up as winners over the long term if they can beat the odds in the short term consistently. In a random game you can not consistently beat the odds. You will have ups and downs that will average out very close to the exact true math odds over the life of your playing career.

"AlamoTx" wrote:
My brain is awash in the nuances associated with immediate probability vs long term probability. Scientifically, both must surely exist and may be independent from one another.
AlamoTx

Yes, scientifically both do exist but they are most definitely NOT independent from one another.

Well….science aside, here is my empirical observation after a few practice sessions using random dice throws. Laying the 4 or the 10 does lose, and it loses too often to make it worth doing. For example, on a few occasions, I tried 5 counting and then laying the 4 or the 10. Unbelievably, the corner number was hit within a roll or two on enough occasions to make me nervous about it. And, as I understand it, you can make the lay bet anytime, so theoretically, you good wait 10 rolls before putting it out there. I know, it doesn’t change the math.

So, despite all the math, the empirical results are discouraging to say the least. I’ll probably continue to 5 count random shooters and get two come bets on the board before laying odds on both ( if I play on them at all). But…here’s a new question as an alternative, low risk amount wager:

What about 5 counting the shooter and then making a $25 don’t come bet. Seems like you are just doing the reverse of the right way 5 count, but gaining an advantage if you get past the 7 on your come out. If you get past the 7, you should be in pretty good shape. A $25 flat bet against any number has to be in the player’s advantage. I do understand that on that 6th roll, where your bet is on the DC, your pants are down bigtime. I’m sure the math doesn’t favor this approach either, but just thought I’d ask. If there were ways to beat this game without skill, we’d all be doing it.

Alamo

"AlamoTx" wrote: Well….science aside, here is my empirical observation after a few practice sessions using random dice throws.
Alamo

You do realize you are talking to a guy whose signature on the board reads, "Bet smart, the math always wins." 😀

What you wrote is like saying, yes I know the earth is spherical but a lot of ships go into the Bermuda Triangle and disappear. Perhaps the end of the earth is in the Bermuda Triangle and they fall off the edge when they go there?

Empirical observation after a few practice sessions does not alter the science of the math of the game which will hold up over the lifetime of your craps play.

"AlamoTx" wrote: But…here’s a new question as an alternative, low risk amount wager:

What about 5 counting the shooter and then making a $25 don’t come bet. Seems like you are just doing the reverse of the right way 5 count, but gaining an advantage if you get past the 7 on your come out. If you get past the 7, you should be in pretty good shape. A $25 flat bet against any number has to be in the player’s advantage. I do understand that on that 6th roll, where your bet is on the DC, your pants are down bigtime. I’m sure the math doesn’t favor this approach either, but just thought I’d ask. If there were ways to beat this game without skill, we’d all be doing it.

Alamo

Yes the don’t player gains an advantage if you get past the 7 OR 11 on a come out roll. But that is the whole point. A sizeable share of the HA on the flat portion of a don’t wager comes from the 7 or 11 on the come out roll. Unless a don’t player is willing to "sell" you his don’t wager for even money after it goes to a point number you can not get past the 7 or 11 on the come out roll. You can not ignore the part of the wager that favors the house and only count the portion that favors the player.

Also the 5 count neither gains nor loses a mathematical advantage on the do or don’t side once it is completed. The 5 count is not a method for gaining a mathematical advantage over the house. Only a controlled throw can overcome the house edge. The 5 count is a way to preserve your bankroll plain and simple. It has nothing to do with gaining an edge in the negative expectation game of craps. You avoid betting on 57% of the rolls by random rollers with the 5 count. But the odds of winning or losing remain the same after the 5 count is completed as they were at all other times in the game, before, during and after the 5 count.

You’re right. I’ll just keep avoiding the CFs and playing them with the best odds I can find. As I understand it, the house edge is slightly less as a don’t player with odds? Didn’t Frank’s article mention that?

AlamoTx