The following link describes what I do:

The Big Skinny

Look at the "Big Skinny." This is what Rose and Doc use all the time. Learn it and practice it. It has the lowest House Advantage (HA for short) of any bet at the craps table–and with odds–ever lower than anything in the the casino.

Good luck. Hope to see you in the casino soon.

Alligator Rose and Doc

Hi Phil,

Former No 7"s Winner!!!!!!!!

WE have added an entire section and lecture in the New Revised GTC Craps Seminar. I know you are a very good shooter but it might be a good idea for you to take a Refresher Course and learn these optimum betting strategies that we now teach and follow ourselves.

Students new and old have really learned a lot and most have recouped the cost of the course real fast.

Think about it, it would also be great to see you again. Please feel free to stop by our open house on Friday March 21st at the Sheraton in AC.

Thanks for your input. I was just talking to Billy yesterday about any future plans for an intensive betting course only. I would absolutely consider that. I am convinced that I am not getting the maximum return on my skill set. My last trip to AC this week was a sterling example of wasted opportunities. I do not consider the player who made out like a bandit on the hopped fours and my hitting them five times in a row as a missed opportunity. That was luck and skill in not crapping out. But I will stay tuned to the GTC class schedule.

Yes, I would also be interested in just strictly a GTC betting class. Maybe a new Friday class? Something for GTC instructors to consider offering in the near future. Dom are you up for it? 😀

Thanks!

I try to not bet on any randy. Next, I five count anyone I don’t know. Sometimes a come bet and sometimes a place bet if I bet at all. People that fling the dice hard I do not bet at all on them, also do not bet on those that constantly cannot keep the dice on the table.

On myself I am very conservative initially. Pass line and one or two place bets depending on what the point is. No pressing until I have hit enough to equal my initial bets. Then I follow Stickman’s up a unit progression. Simple. Works for me. Doesn’t take a lot of thought in a longer run which helps to stay in the zone.

OneMoonCircles

Try another GTC class, you will not believe the difference between the Old GTC and New GTC.
Its so much more informative as far as betting is concerned, we may be able to shoot the dice, but learning the do’s and don’t of betting is as important as our throw. I see all these questions about betting and I think where were they in class ? Then I think back to the Old GTC and I understand. See you in class someday I hope.
TommyC

Getagrip are you back in the US ?
If they throw 7 numbers or 8-9 before the 5 count I try not to bet .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Finisher,

Still in Mexico but I do cross the border occasionally! 🙂

We don’t want to bet on the random players, so I have been playing with some Darkside stratagies. Some basic bets that have worked well is to, bet nothing until shooter makes 1 point. There is about a 16% chance now he will make a second point. I place a $25 don’t pass line bet, $18 6 and 8. One hit, rack $21 win and down on that #. If you get knocked off on the other place bet, let the DP play out. Now if shooter makes the 2nd point (chance he will make third point around 7%) bet $30 DP with $24 6 and 8 and play out as before. I have made some decent profit off this stratagy, much of it’s sucess is qualifying the shooter before you jump in. Anyone else have a Darkside plan that works for you. I know this has been a black vodoo topic on the forum that rarley has discussion, but we are talking about betting. .

MarkM3,

Since we are talking about betting, you need to realize the random game of craps is a negative expectation game. By that I mean the house has an advantage on every bet you make (except for the odds bet) and there is no way to get a positive expectation with any combination of bets. The only way to turn the game of craps into a positive expectation is by being able to control the dice in such a manner as to be able to overcome the house advantage on the wages you make.

In other words there is no "system" of wagering that can give you a positive expectation over the long run when betting on random rollers. Yes, not even the 5 count can give you a positive expectation. The 5 count can help you conserve your bankroll while wagering on random rollers (you will lose less with the 5 count than when betting on all shooters) but it can not enable you to make money in the long run betting on random rollers.

When GTC says to not bet on random rollers, they mean do not make any wagers on random rollers. They do not mean there is an advantage by making don’t bets on random rollers. A don’t wager is still a wager with a negative expectation on a random roller so you can expect to lose money making don’t wagers on random rollers in the long run.

You stated when a RR makes 1 point there is about a 16% chance he will make a 2nd point. That implies you have an 84% chance of winning your don’t pass line bet. Both of those statements are false. After a player makes 1 point it is a brand new game. The odds of his making the next point do not change because he made his first point.

Every time you make a don’t pass wager, regardless of the number of points the shooter has made before you made that wager, you have a 47.93% chance of winning, 2.78% chance of pushing and 49.29% chance of losing. In other words the house has a 1.36% advantage on every don’t pass wager you make and that does not change regardless of how many points a shooter makes or does not make.

Of course the house has a 1.52% house edge on any wager on the 6 or any wager on the 8. Thus, every wager you make on the 6 or 8 has a 49.24% chance of winning and a 50.76% chance of losing.

Yes, you are making low house edge wagers on the random roller and by waiting for him to make one point you will eliminate a certain portion of shooters. Your way of wagering is not going to be too costly. But I just did not want you or any of the other readers to think you somehow had found a way to come up with a positive expectation on random rollers.

Skinny I understand the positive/negaative math expectations of the game, you have taught me well and am gratefull. The disussion was about betting and what works for you, just like "The Big Skinny" works for you, this works for me most the time and keeps me in the game. I was addressing the forum if they have found ways (not stratagies) that have worked well from playing the donts.

What I am looking for is to increase a GTC good shooter’s chances of getting maximum return on their bets. I often shoot into the teens and 20’s with frequent 30’s and some time 40’s and 50’s. B2B 19’s 26’s are not rare. Three or four points is also not unusual. I do not bet the unusual bets that some casinos offer. A KISS strategy is what I would like to see.

MarkM3 You need to realize that skinny is into the math and is vary good at it . I tried to show and tell him in another post about getting points with the doey don’t system .
He said the math did not work period . But in the end it did for a little while and would have longer if the players doing it were more secret about it .Now Skinny will still say it does not work . I say and agree some what .Here comes the BUT . The casinos spent a lot of money changing the point system on all their Crap machines . They would not do this for no reason you think .
It is now 8 to 20 times harder to get points at V-craps . It depends on were you play .
I would ask how have you changed your betting since reading the books and taking the class .I assume which I don’t like doing that at one time Skinny bet different then he does now .Even tho the math has been the same .
I don’t remember how I bet when I first started rolling the bones or cared about the math of it .
I try all different ways of betting in practice all the time . It is fun and enjoy it .I do say away from most PROP . BETS even when my wife comes up and says YOU on the hard ways ?
I laugh and tell the dealer to put me on what she said .Some times it works but most of the time the 7 comes and that is why she watches now before she comes up behind me . 🙂 🙂
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Finisher,

I have no idea how they were computing comp points in V-craps then or now. My point was and still is that there is no advantage to playing the doey-don’t when it comes to expected loss. The math is very simple and can not be disputed. Here is the House Advantage (HA) for 3 different wagers.

The HA on a Pass Line wager is -1.41%
The HA on the doey-don’t is -1.39%
The HA on the Don’t Pass wager is – 1.36%

Thus your expected loss in a random game such as V-craps is almost the same with any of those 3 wagers. The problem with the doey-don’t, when you want to make a minimum bet, is that you have to make 2 minimum bets, ie. you have to bet twice as much as you can with a PL or Don’t wager.

But if you are playing for points and want to bet a lot of money you can expect to lose approximately the same amount of money if you wager the same amount of money on any of those 3 wagers.

If over time you wager $10,000 on the PL you can expect to lose $141.
If over time you wager $10,000 on the doey-don’t, you can expect to lose $139.
If over time you wager $10,000 on the Don’t you can expect to lose $136.

Your friends were betting big money on the doey-don’t so it would not be unusual for them to be betting that amount or more over the time it took them to earn their diamond status.

All I was saying was the players could expect to lose just as much money playing the pass line by itself or the don’t pass by itself as they would betting the doey-don’t for the same amount of money.

Now if you are telling me a player wagering $10,000 on the doey-don’t would earn more comp points than someone wagering $10,000 on the PL or $10,000 on the Don’t because there was some bug in the computer system I have no idea about that. Nor, did I pretend to know anything about how they were computing their comp points.

I strongly suspect your friends would have made just as many comp points by betting the PL or Don’t by themselves as they did betting the doey-don’t. Your point was the casino was giving way too many comp points for the small amount of money the players were losing betting big dollars. That may well have been the case and your point that they have since changed the comp points earned makes it highly likely that was indeed happening. If there was any problem with the way V-craps was giving comp points, it probably was giving too many comp points for betting the PL, Don’t or doey-don’t. I believe your friends were deluding themselves into thinking they would lose less money betting the doey-don’t and the comp points made it worth the small amount of money they were losing in relation to what they were betting. But they could have lost just as little money by betting the PL by itself or the Don’t by itself because that is the math behind those wagers.

I have no idea how V-craps would have computed the comp points for those wagers. I am pretty sure it would have been consistent and given just as many comp points for any of the 3 wagers as I said before. But that is pure speculation on my part because I have no idea how the comp points were computed.

The expected loss is a different matter. I am 100% certain about the math involved in the 3 wagers.

"Finisher" wrote: I assume which I don’t like doing that at one time Skinny bet different then he does now .Even tho the math has been the same .

Your assumption is completely correct. Before I played craps for the first time, I wanted to understand the game. I read a bunch of books by other authors (not any GTC) to both learn how to play and how to wager. I adopted a method of betting described by one of those authors (it involved regression betting). Not knowing any better I tried that method at the tables. After playing about 3 sessions, I quickly realized this was a losing way of playing. I decided craps could not be beaten and quit playing. But, I liked the game and I continued to read books about it, hoping to find someone who might have a good idea.

That was when I came across one of Frank’s early books and read about controlled shooting and the five count. I started playing again using the five count and trying to make a controlled shot from the description in the book. The five count helped me to lose less money than before when I was betting on every player. But, I did not have any control over the dice so I was still losing money, albeit less than I did before.

Fortunately there was a flyer in the book about a class that Frank and Dom were giving in AC. So I called Dom and signed up. Thus it was shortly after reading Frank’s book that I was able to take my first class before I developed a bunch of bad habits trying to learn by myself. I took the class, bought my throwing/receiving stations at the class (Dom gave a discount and I saved on shipping by taking it in my car) and the rest is history.

Over the years I have had many discussions with the other horsemen and instructors about betting. I have tried a lot of different strategies even since first getting involved in GTC. Some I tried in the casinos but most I worked out using excel and math. Eventually I settled on The Big Skinny and that is what I use in most situations.

Thank you for the reply .As far as V-craps goes I only play it were you can set the dice and throw them . Also If you do the math for the 10,000 with the doey don’t you would have gotten 2,000 points with other way you would have 1,000 points . Now it is 250 points and 125 points and some places even less .I heard that some give you one point for every 200.00 in or out .
These are machines that base your points on money in and out . It does not matter if you win or loose or how long you play . Coin in coin out just like a slot .
I have played craps for a long time and never played the doey don’t even after reading books that at the time said it was good . I have always felt that if there was a system that really worked the casinos would get out of this thing .
I play for the fun and the win but how they were playing is like work to me .I did see a lot of them reach 7 star which now they only get to diamond since they changed the points .
I too have changed my betting ways since learning about GTC WAYS EVEN THO i TOOK THE CLASS BEFORE THEY REALLY GOT INTO THE BETTING PART .
I enjoy reading all your posts and love all the good math ideas that you give all of us .
My table only has one rail so will try your way when at a casino .
Good Rolling.

When I said $10,000 on the doey-don’t, I did not mean $10,000 on the do and $10,000 on the don’t for a total of $20,000 wagered. I meant a total of $10,000 wagered which would have meant betting a total of $5,000 on the PL and $5,000 on the Don’t over time. Would $5,000 on the PL and $5,000 on the Don’t for a total of $10,000 on the doey-don’t earned 2,000 points or only 1,000 points?

If it is the latter which is what I suspect, then I stick by what I said in the post. If you earned the same amount of points while betting the same amount of money on the PL by itself, Don’t by itself or doey-don’t then there was no need for your friends to play the doey-don’t. People mistakenly believe they lose less money with the doey-don’t than with the PL or Don’t alone. That is not true. Your friends could have just played one or the other and they would have lost the same amount as if they played the doey-don’t.

It sounds like they earned a lot of points because the casino was giving too many credits for the PL, Don’t or doey-don’t. It had nothing to do with some magical way they found of risking less money for a lot of points using the doey-don’t. If the casino was giving 1 point for every $10 wagered and they have now changed that to 1 point for every $40 or $80 wagered then clearly they were giving too many points for the amount wagered. But that has nothing to do with playing the doey-don’t.

Under the old system of 1 point for every $10 wagered your friends could have earned 1,000 points for every $10,000 wagered expecting to lose about $140 regardless of which of the 3 ways they wagered that $10,000. Now it would cost them about $560 or $1,120 to earn those 1,000 points. So, if under the old system, 1,000 points was worth more than $140, then they were getting their money’s worth by betting a lot of money on V-craps. But they were still paying around $140 for every 1,000 points even using the doey-don’t.

If you are on a table that has only one rail, then do what Doc said in the other post. Just keep track of the hits on the side. There should be plenty of room for your betting chips and keeping track of hits on the one rail. If not, use the space next to you.

Good luck and let me know how it works out in practice for you.

I have seen at least one casino in Vegas that gives no comps for play on the craps machine.

Noah

Skinny they make their points with the don’t come and come bets or place bets and lay bets . That is really were the money is in and out add up .I dont know the math behind all that betting but to me it is a lot of work. But I think that once you know how it is easy .
They do it in a way that for every roll of the dice they get 50 points as long as it is not a 7 out . At least that is what it started out .
If there is a Vcraps machine that gives no points that is real bad . Have not heard of that one but I never play the ones in Vegas . Some of the casinos have taken them out .
There is a limit on machines so that is why they play 6 machines at a time too .
They prefer long roll with no points made .
You should just take a look at some of the crazy ways they bet on these machines .I have seen bets like 5.00 on pass line with 1.00 odds you would go nuts LOL AT THESE PLAYERS .
I asked some of these players if they bet like this on a real craps table and they ALL SAID Hell no .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I think they idea is that in a long roll they bet the doey don’t so when a number is rolled they win on the right side and get points . Also when they loose on don’t side they get points . If you are playing one sided you only get the win or loss in points .It is like being able to play to hands at cards being the banker and the player at the same time for points .I don’t think that is a good way to explain to you but I am trying .I think if you took one of your longest rolls with no points made and did the math you would see it more clearly .
I had a feeling they would change things so no matter now . A lot of those players are mad about what has happened .You can now get a seat at the table most every night .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Phillham, for years I have used a system Stickman posted, almost certain its in the Archives. Simple, once you have hit a number once or twice, have covered your buy in with profit in the rack, as the dealer pays you off, tell them up a unit,(or two depending on consistancy of throw and bankroll). Three simple words to the dealer and it keeps your mind in the game. If I’m consistantly hitting a particular #, will press full amount and collect and press. if you feel any indicators your throw is getting off a little regress or call off the bets.
ANY Don’t Playyers Out There!!

MarkM3-My question goes deeper than that. I place the 6 & 8, unless either one is the point. After three hits, I go up a unit or more each time I hit. Should I also Come bet. When, how many. Buy the 4 and/or 10? If so when? That is just my initial questions. I want to keep it simple.

Clll posted a chart that had both up a unit and press and pull on them to give you an idea how the progression would go .I miss all those charts . I should have printed them .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Following are the Stickman’s articles on progressions:

What is the "Best" Progression for You?

What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Two)

What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Three of Three)

Skinny thank you again .This time I got lucky and high lighted the chart and it worked . I am still learning about all this click and 2x click .Some times I get way more then I wanted .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

You are welcome Finisher. It sounded like that was what you were looking for and others might benefit from it as well.

Skinny-I have known about and used these methods for years. I still thank you for the post. I am still not happy with my long rolls and low profit. I need more.

"Philham" wrote: Skinny-I have known about and used these methods for years. I still thank you for the post. I am still not happy with my long rolls and low profit. I need more.

I am sure you have read this article before: How much should I be winning at the tables?

How do your wins and losses compare to your initial amount at risk? Are they consistent with what I gave as guidelines in the article? If they are not consistent then we have to look elsewhere. If they are consistent, it is possible your expectations are not realistic in comparison to what you are betting.

Thank you Skinny, Alamo and stickman, That is exactly what I was looking for. On that long roll I brought up I was using Stickman’s press and pull as well as 1/2 press and pull. Alamo your strategy is also what I was looking for. Skinny thank you for suggesting to read the stickman literature it was exceptional.

I do have a question about the math and about the likelihood or non-likelihood of different things happening at a table in the random game.

We all know that each roll is a brand new set of expectations, and that the math determines what outcome expectations are, and mathematically, the house edge is always present.

However, there are other possible expectations besides just the pure pyramid math. For example, I think Mark mentioned that he thought the shooter had a certainly probability of making or not making a point on the next turn. My guess is that such things do, in fact, have probabilities associated with them. As an example, we use the 5 count and make a bet on the 6th throw (oversimplified). We are told repeatedly that this keeps us out of 60% of the random hands. So, we must ‘know’ that 60% of rollers will 7 out before they get to that 6th throw. Obviously, if we did an 8 or 10 count, we’d miss even fewer hands. How does that math get figured vs for example, 10 should be paid at 2/1 to make the game even vs the 7? Or how do you decide what are the chances that a given shooter will get 3 passes in a row? Or two? Or even one? Surely these things are statistically measurable.

Mentally, for example, I tend to think that if I 5 count and then make a Don’t Come bet, my biggest gamble is that the 7 won’t be the next roll. Odds are the 7 will not be the next roll, just because we’re on roll 5. So, if I get past that one roll 7 and go to a don’t pass number, I should have an advantage because (emotionally?) the deeper the roll, the more likely the 7 is coming. Mathematically, I know that each roll is a separate game, number v number, but this other stuff must have probabilities also.

No answers here; just comments.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

"Mentally, for example, I tend to think that if I 5 count and then make a Don’t Come bet, my biggest gamble is that the 7 won’t be the next roll. Odds are the 7 will not be the next roll, just because we’re on roll 5. So, if I get past that one roll 7 and go to a don’t pass number, I should have an advantage because (emotionally?) the deeper the roll, the more likely the 7 is coming. Mathematically, I know that each roll is a separate game, number v number, but this other stuff must have probabilities also." -AlamoTx

Generally speaking a random roller has the same chance of getting to roll 40 from roll 30 as they have of getting to roll 10 from 0*. For a random roller a 7 has a one in six chance of appearing whether you are on roll 3 or 33 or 103.

If you are talking about a dice influencer(di) that is a different matter. If a roll progresses in length beyond the di’s comfort level that can cause stress. If betting progression pushes the money beyond the di’s comfort level that can cause stress. The excitement of other players on a long roll can cause distraction. A longer than usual time spent on deliberate focused action can cause fatigue. All these can increase the chance of a 7 appearing.

* I acknowledge that there is some mathematical difference if there is already an established point on roll 30 as opposed to roll 0 which is a comeout roll.

I guess statisticians would call what I’m talking about ‘variance’ or something like that.

For example, you roll 3 tens in a row. People will say, "Boy what was my chance of doing that? Wonder what the odds are of me rolling it 4 times in a row? OK, next roll, here we go." But, I’ve heard people, Skinny maybe, describe your chances of rolling 5 hard 4s before catching an easy way or a 7, so that kind of stuff has predictive labels. It just ‘seems’ like if a shooter has rolled more than 6 times without getting a 7, he/she ought to be about due since the math at large says 1 in 6 rolls will be a 7. I don’t pretend to understand this stuff, but I do find it terribly interesting. I have a friend who will often hop the 7 at the end of the 5 count. Sometimes he hits it, but I am sure someone will say that he has the same odds of hitting that 7 on roll 50 as he does on roll 6 or 7. I can’t prove it, but I’m almost certain that whoever came up with the 5 count probably did it with that 1 in 6 stat in mind, figuring you’ll miss a lot of shooters who aren’t ultimately going to have a long roll if you 5 count and…you’ll be around when they do make it through a longer roll…i.e., a variance type roll outside the norm…strictly talking about the random game, of course.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo