I have a different opinion of the above statement.

First I think the argument of using the word influence vs. control is a silly argument. Does a pitcher influence the ball or control it when he hurls it towards the strike zone? Does a golfer influence or control the club as he swings it at the golf ball? Does the basketball player influence or control the basketball as he attempts to put it in the basket?

To me it is antics and semantics brought about by people who are trying to distinguish themselves from what GTC has been using for years when they teach people to become dice "controllers".

The statement was that dice can not be controlled. Well I have thrown many a shot where the dice did exactly what I wanted them to do, exactly what I was attempting to have them do and they reacted exactly as I intended them to react. In those circumstances, I believe I controlled what the dice were doing. I did more than influence them.

Yes once they hit the table the dice are out of my sphere of influence and they are somewhat subject to other conditions that I can not control. But when my shot is on, I can make them land exactly where I know how they will react even how they will react upon hitting the pyramids. For me that is controlling the dice.

I certainly agree it takes muscle memory with minimum energy on the dice. And of course we always teach you to play within your comfort level for several reasons, nerves being just one of them.

However I strongly disagree that in the end, it always comes down to luck. This is science not mysticism. If you have a mathematical advantage which you have proven with science then you will come out ahead in the long run as long as you make wagers that give you an advantage over the house edge. When the math is in your favor it will hold up over the long haul. You will not win every time, you may lose more than you win. But with proper wagering your wins should be large enough to overcome your losses over the life of your gaming career. The math always wins. Luck is elusive and unreliable.

Skinny,
GREAT response. Well Done.

OMG Skinny!

This is exactly the point I tried to make in Alamo TX post. Eloquent!

OMC

Glad I could contribute to what you were trying to convey. 😛

"OneMoonCircles" wrote: OMG Skinny!

This is exactly the point I tried to make in Alamo TX post. Eloquent!

OMC

I went back and reread what you wrote there and I agree with you that luck does not play a big role in what we do. Most of what happens is due to our skill and how well we have practiced to develop that skill. In fact when we are on a long roll and slip up, making a poor shot that ends up being random, I think it is bad luck for it to be a 7. After all there is only a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a 7 on a random throw. That means there is an 83.3% chance you will not get a 7 with a random throw. So if you only have a single poor throw or maybe even a few on a long roll there is a very good chance it will not be a 7.

When my shot is on, I know when I make a mistake. But I don’t expect a 7 because it is against the odds. Of course if I continue to make poor shots then the 7 is inevitable. But luck is not playing a role here. It is skill and the math at work.

I believe that a pitcher does both, influence and controls the ball when it is in his hand and up until he releases it. He has a target of the Mitt. When He hurls the ball and it goes anywhere other than the intended target, he didn’t have precise control or enough influence. Enough control to keep the ball in an area where the catcher can make a catch on it, enough grip to influence it. Sometimes the influence and control causes an errant pitch. Only when that ball sinks directly into the catcher’s mitt or dead on fast ball strike and any “pre-planned” pitch, has the pitcher controlled AND influenced the ball almost completely. I feel the same is true of our sport. When we make a throw and we set and toss and get a combination of an exact match for the set, you certainly controlled and influenced the throw. But how much of each though? If you are you got a different number, you had enough influence and control to limit the appearance of the 7.

As for the golfer, he has no control of the ball. Only Influence I believe. When he winds up and whacks the ball, his body, stroke, club position etc. are all influential on the ball and destination. The golfer is positioned as to influence the ball to a particular path and landing area. He exhibits no control over the ball whatsoever in this first stroke. As he continues to play each shot, he will impart more influence until he reaches the cup. With all the trees and grass and objects and lays of the grounds, the golfer really doesn’t have control of the ball, just lots of influence. Whereas, with our sport, we set, grip, aim and shoot where we want the dice to go, but have to contend with the influence of the pyramids. Sometime our control and influence overpowers their influence, sometimes it doesn’t. Let not forget about the table landing zone influence and chips to contend with.

The Basketball player has control when he shoots the ball. His back spin will have influence on the shot as well. When you have that much contact with the ball, you control it substantially more and depending on the circumstances, different degrees of influence. The more we have contact the dice, the more control, but once they leave our hand, and scale of influence & control tilt one way to another until the call is made.
I concur with you regarding the betting strategies. Having the discipline to keep to the low house edge bets is one of the best ways to keep the math out in our favour.

I believe a bit of luck is needed and included in every throw. Just the way other athletes and professionals believe other superstitious help in their performance, when in reality, it really comes from the training, and other attributes acquired to perform to the best of one’s ability. I still like to hope and ask for good luck when I play though.

I still feel that that original statement is quite accurate.

I love Skinny response!

As far as luck ….. I have always said that in ANY LONG, MONSTER roll, there will be some luck involved. In DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak, and inch or two one way or the other on a ball hit to the shortstop would have been an out.

Think about those great shots that you throw and they look great in the air, and a 7 shows. In any monster roll, not all the shots will be good shots. So a tiny bit of luck …. yes in a monster …. but you need the skill to move "luck" to your side of the equation!

Dominator

The good golfers in the world can hook it slice it spin it to stop on a dime at will.

They have no control over the soft spot in the green and that is when they need luck or the divot the ball stops in or the ball mark in there line aka the place in the felt that is worn differently the offset pyramid and then there is the chips in your way you need luck at times.

Chucco you have been at the table with me and watched me plant shots like like I was a machine to the point that you got so haqppy you could not even stand still and called it amazing.

I can think of two times that I thought you where going to pee your pants you where so excited about hard ways!

After reading Outliers I feel a little different about practice and other things .
Luck does come into play at times . For one thing the record is held by some one who rolled dice once before setting the record.I think there must have been some luck going on there .
If there was nothing to dice control there would be no heat at all from pit .Some do it as soon as they see you set the dice .Others know that the math wins in long run and that is there are more CFers then setters that are good .Like Dom and Frank say that only 10% will become great . It takes a lot to do this just like how many play golf that never make money playing golf ?
The first time and only time I played golf I got lucky . My fried that I took golfing told me to just aim toward his ball . Well I did just that and hit it which was more then 100 yards away . Now that was LUCK period we all laughed . I did en know how to hold the clubs .Let alone all the other things that you need to know .
Luck is funny some times it is here and some times it is gone .Just never stays with me vary long . 🙂 🙂
Luck or not I am going to keep practicing till my table wears out or I do . 🙂 🙂
It is nice meeting great people from all walks of life enjoying the same thing whither they are good or not so good .That is the great part I think . Also winning some along the way is FUN . O YES none of my friends that play golf have said that they got a free room or meal for playing .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

The odds of a random roller having a roll of 154 is around 5.5 billion to 1. Given the millions of people who play craps around the world I would say there have easily been over 5.5 billion hands since the inception of casino craps. So why is it surprising that someone accomplished a roll of 154? According to the math it was likely to happen at some point. Is it luck or is it math?

Sure you could define it as luck for Pat DeMauro because it happened to her. But it was likely to happen to somebody at some time sooner or later.

The Captain had a roll of 100 in 2004 and 147 in 2005. He probably had other 100 rolls during his career playing craps but there was no one around to record those rolls. Frank just happened to be there for the two that are reported. Would you consider that luck or skill? I think the answer is obvious.

Frank has 20 recorded rolls of 50 or more with the longest being an 89. In 2004 he had 6 hands of 50 or more.

Dominator has 17 recorded rolls of 50 or more with the longest being a 79. In 2004 he had 3 hands of over 30 in a row. The Goddess beat that in 2006 when she had 4 hands of over 30 in a row.

Luck or skill?

My point is when it comes to a skilled controlled shooter, luck plays a small if any role in what happens. Skill is the predominant factor for an accomplished shooter.

When an unusual event occurs to a random roller that is completely within the probabilities of the game, no matter how unlikely it may seem to the casual observer, I attribute it to the math being the math. You may consider it luck for the person who accomplishes the unusual event. But it was likely to happen to somebody and I just chalk it up to the math. Let’s not mystify something that science tells us is likely to occur.

Skinny What about that pot of GOLD coins found this year ? What are the odds of that ? Let alone the odds that there is more like that laying around in your back yard .I don’t think they followed the rainbow to get it . 🙂 🙂 I under stand the math is right . That is a big reason the casinos are not worried about dice control. It mostly is some one that wants to look good if the table brings in more .
Boy I wish that one time I played golf that the math would have said it was a time for hole in one . 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
My friends are probably talking about me hitting their ball. What are the odds of that happening .No practice ,did en know how to stand or hold club along with what ever you need to do to be good at it .
I remember that the first few holes it took 2 shots to get to were they were . One of them said some thing like . Just let your hole body hit the ball and don’t think it is a base ball . That kind of worked better.
I had good luck that day and bad luck . The bad was when they told me to just move my feet back 6 in. so I could get the ball up more . Well the ball got up and hit a water tower and went on wrong side to land OUT of golf course .
I will keep practicing and hope for some luck to come my way and maybe the math will say its time for a 170 roll . 🙂 🙂
Love your posts and hope to roll with you some day .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I am not saying there is no such thing as luck. In fact, the way you describe your golf game I would say any time you get the ball into the hole, that would be luck. 🙂 🙂 🙂

The original statement in this post pertained to controlled shooters and the author was claiming

But in the end, it always comes down to luck.

I take strong exception with that statement.

One definition of luck is, "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one’s own actions."

When it comes to controlled shooting, I believe success or failure is brought about directly through one’s own actions. If you take a course with GTC and follow the recommendations taught in class religiously, your expectations have a lot more to do with what you have done rather than chance. If you take notes and pay attention during lectures and to the instructors at the tables, then develop a disciplined practice routine following the betting and throwing techniques taught, you will be more successful as a result of what you did rather than of the vagaries of chance. I am including in this the elements we can not control at the tables. If someone stacks up chips in your landing area, your ability to move your target and not let the chips distract you is a result of your own actions. Your ability to block out other distractions at the table so that they do not impact you are a result of your own actions. Those actions in these cases having to do with how well you have practiced overcoming those type of situations, how well you have listened in class or paid attention to posts that give advice on how to deal with them. A controlled shooter has the choice to rely on luck or bring about results directly through one’s own actions. The choice is up to you.

Luck may play a role at times, but it is a minor role. As Dom said no long roll is 100% perfect. There may be a roll or two in which you did not execute a good throw. You need a bit of luck to overcome those shots. But as I also said, there is an 83.3% chance you will not throw a 7 with a random throw. So you don’t really need a great deal of luck to overcome a poor throw from time to time.

I also stated Pat DeMauro was lucky to be the one to have a 154 roll hand. Her success was brought about by chance not through her own actions. But I am not surprised that there was a 154 roll hand by a random roller. That is due to the math of the game. Craps is a game of chance (for random rollers) dictated by math.

For controlled shooters it is a game of skill where success or failure is brought about by one’s own actions. But it is also dictated by the math of the game. If you are skillful enough to overcome the house advantage on the wagers you make, you can expect to come out ahead of the casinos in the long run. That skill begins with your ability to execute a controlled throw. But there is a lot more to that skill than just that. The wagers you make, your mental skill, being able to overcome diversity, your discipline in playing when you have an advantage or not all come into play as part of the actions you take towards your success or failure at this game.

What’s the old saying, "The hardier I wok, the luckier I get"

Noah

I really like this post, thanks for the math Skinny! Always put’s things in perspective. I can say I have been with GTC for about 2 years now. Before I took my first class, I read the book and practice the throw via the book. I played quite a bit, before taking the class (about a year). I never had a hand over 22 or 23. And that was setting the hard way set and doing the throw and grip best I could from reading the book.

Since my first class I have seen improvement after every class that I have been too. As you can see by my info I have taken 4 classes VA and a tune up. I have put a lot of time and effort into this. If I were to have seen no results I would not still be taken classes and practicing. Since the 2 years have started, I have seen my length of rolls increase. Double in fact. Not every time I throw of course, but during trips.

After my first refresher in Vegas, I had several high teens to mid 20’s rolls and a high of 31.

After my 2nd refresher I had high of 46, and again quite a few 20 hands etc.

After my last Advance class I had a high of 51 a roll of 39 (really doc?) why not 40 LOL!!!

I told Dom in the last class, that is it no wander I have my best sessions after a weekend of class? To me this is not luck involved. Sure during some of the rolls I am sure I got lucky? Or did the math play in my favor of the 83% chance of not rolling the 7? I guess it depends on how you look at it. How many times have the dice left your hand and the word Oh S**T come out. And the 7 came. This luck? Not to me, you messed up and the throw sucked and the 7 came. I say I got unlucky that the 83% did not land on my side that time. LOL.

Too many times at my sessions I have the best rolls of anyone (random players) at the table. Just way to many times. And also, the more I am practicing and advancing, I am really starting to notice the signature number thing. Where during the roll, I am seeing the same pits show up beyond what I think the math would suggest. Could be wrong on the math part. 2 instances come up that I can remember vividly. One a few months ago, I rolled 6 nines 5 of them back to back. I remember this so vividly cause 1) I had no bets on the 9, as I was already out my initial 3 bets. And 2) the box man called the dice in to check them, LOL.

The other time was my last trip when threw so many 10’s the dealer were yelling at me to stop doing come bets and just buy the 10. But the vig is upfront so I did not do it.
So from my history, I have just been very lucky for the past 2 years, or I am controlling the dice beyond what math dictates?

So I say False!!!!

From our perspective you are indeed influencing the dice. We have played at the table with you. Doc even blocked for you. As we all know in every decent roll there are always a couple of rolls where the term "AH S**T" is most appropriate–the back wall has a little influence on the dice, a dice is hit or something beyond our control. If we have a decent roll and make money the dice have had some influence from us. Remember we are in this for the long run and the casinos do not win every time from every shooter. The CF’ers are just lucky when they have a long roll.

We hope to see you in the casino soon.

Alligator Rose and Doc

PS–what do you know about the new casino going in Lake Charles?

To Everyone who has responded,

Great thoughts. Skinny, I appreciate the math analyst and believe that the math always prevails. Great discussion and look forward to reading more.

"Dr Crapology" wrote: PS–what do you know about the new casino going in Lake Charles?

Well I know the owner is pumping 600 million into it as he said, he believes gambling in Texas is not around the corner, so that is why he is opening it. The owner has a lot of prime property in Houston and the surrounding areas. I know he desperately wants gambling approved in Texas. I thought it was to open in November but have recently heard may be open by mid summer. So we will see.

See you soon in AC!

Have meet a lot of players in Laughlin that were from Tex.They have flights once a week it seems .
I wonder if that will change ?
Good Rolling. 😀 😀