By Frank Scoblete
Many players in the dice control community attempt to formulate and then justify odd betting choices, thinking that they are prescribing excellent wagering schemes when, in fact, they advocate idiocy.
One such formulation is called the “See a horn, bet a horn” principle that advocates betting the horn with its 12.5 percent house edge should you see a streak of such horn numbers, those being 2, 3, 11, and 12. No one is quite sure what a streak consists of but some have likened it to the Supreme Court’s opinion about pornography, which I’ll paraphrase, “I can’t define pornography but I know it when I see it.”
Of course, a conservative religious person might see pornography in a kiss, while those reared in the sexual revolution might only see pornography when it involves a child. Who is right? Take your pick of either side – or any side in between.
However, we can make certain astute observations about whether one should bet a horn after seeing a controlled shooter hitting several horn numbers. The answer is no, obviously, since a house edge of 12.5 percent is out of the reach of most controlled shooters’ abilities.
With six chances of occurring in a craps game, the horn has the same possibility of hitting as does the 4 and 10.
The Horn:
2 = one chance (1:1)
3 = two chances (2:1; 1:2)
11 = two chances (6:5; 5:6)
12 = one chance (6:6)
Total = six ways
The 4 and 10:
4 = three chances (2:2; 3:1; 1:3)
10 = three chances (5:5; 6:4; 4:6)
Total = six ways
Let’s compare the house edges on both of these wagering choices (we will focus only on the “right” bets):
Horn = 12.5 percent
Place 4 and 10 = 6.67 percent
Buy 4 and 10 at $35 with $1 commission paid on all wagers = 2.78 percent
Buy the 4 and 10 at $25 with $1 commission paid on winning wagers only = 1.3 percent
Now given these house edges, players would have to be a true Crazy Crappers (as the Captain calls them) to bet the horn in a random game. But what of a controlled shooter? After all a controlled shooter is changing the statistics of the game to favor himself. That is true but only true in certain instances – very few controlled shooters can overcome that massive 12.5 percent edge.
Unfortunately, the controlled shooter would have to be just as crazy betting that horn and here’s why. Even if we took the worst 4 and 10 bet, the simple placement coming in with a large 6.67 percent edge, it is still only about half as bad as the horn. Yes, a 6.67 percent edge is extremely difficult to overcome but it is still less difficult than that horn horror.
If we look at the other ways of “buy” betting on the 4 and 10, we see edges of 2.78 percent and 1.3 percent. These edges are incredibly good in comparison to the horn edge.
Of course, the “see a horn, bet a horn” advocates insist that in “some cases” those streaks (which they must recognize intuitively) of horn numbers means it is wise to throw your money (away) on this bet. After all, they claim, a controlled shooter might just be setting the dice for that horn. True, they might be setting for the horn – whether they can overcome that massive house edge or not. (In almost all cases it is not!)
This setting for the horn is utter nonsense when we realize that someone setting the dice to hit the horn has overlooked, through ignorance or stubbornness, the fact that it would be a much better proposition to set for the 4 and 10 by using a set called the 2-V which is designed to specifically hit those 4s and 10s.
Why would a shooter and/or bettor choose to go after a 12.5 percent house edge whose numbers have six ways of hitting when he can set those dice in a 2-V to go after the 4 and 10, a far better bet?
As incredible as it seems, the advocacy of the “see a horn, bet a horn” theorists is based more on a kind of mystical faith than on any kind of reasonable and logical approach to controlled shooting at craps. Such a theorist can give circuitous and long-winded explanations as to why one should bet a horn when you see a horn but not one of those puffy explanations holds water. It’s a dumb bet that can’t be beaten except by the most masterful of dice controllers.
Now, even if a shooter can beat the horn’s high house edge, as some Golden Touch dice control masters can, it is still an idiotic bet. If they waste their energy going after the horn, they have given up real money-making opportunities by ignoring much better propositions one of which I explained above.
“See a horn, bet a horn” is an unfunny joke perpetrated by the comedians of craps and dice control analysis that will have very few of their adherents laughing as they withdraw their funds from the ATM for more such foolish bets. Serious dice controllers stay away from such jokes because they know the truth about percentages and house edges. It isn’t funny to lose money.
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