“See a Horn, Bet a Horn” is Illogical, Irrational, and Stupid
By Frank Scoblete
People who believe in trends often state the “see a horn, bet a horn” craps principle which means – bet whatever just happened because it has a better than average chance of happening again. In a random game this is nonsense and all savvy players know this. Trends in randomness are not predictable.
But what of controlled shooters in dice? What if a controlled shooter rolled the following numbers:
11 – 11 – 12 – 2 – 3 – 3 – 11
Would you say to yourself, “Gee, I just saw a lot of horn numbers. Maybe I should bet the horn on the next roll.” The horn consists of the 2, 3, 11 and 12 and these numbers when combined will appear six times in 36 random rolls.
Some craps “experts” say that this sequence tells you to jump on a money-making proposition as the controlled shooter has demonstrated he can hit that horn with consistency. Some “experts” would say that the horn has just as much of a chance of happening as does a 7, which is a truth leading to a bankroll deleting falsehood as I shall show you.
Is it wise to bet the horn after seeing that streak above – keeping in mind that a controlled shooter shot that streak? No, it isn’t and it isn’t in all cases.
The fact that a horn streak just happened does not mean that a controlled shooter, except one of extraordinary skill such as many of our GTC masters, actually has the ability to overcome a monstrous 12.5 percent house edge!
Think about this. Is the controlled shooter you are contemplating wagering your money on really capable of overcoming such an edge? The answer is no. A 12.5 percent edge is out of just about every controlled shooter’s reach.
Will the shooter be able to continue such a horn hammering or will the casino edge actually hammer him if he sees a horn streak and then bets the horn? The casino edge will hammer him.
Also, at what point in the horn sequence above do you jump in? Is it after the first horn number? The second? The third? The fourth? Which one do you say to yourself, “I better jump in!”
Keep in mind that you have no idea of when the horn streak will end. The sequence above doesn’t exist when you are on the second horn number as you don’t know the future. In fact, will the number after the final 11 above be a horn number? You don’t know that either. The sequence before it, even when thrown by a controlled shooter, has no bearing on beating the horn bet by wagering that horn after that final 11.
The shooter must have the skill to overcome a 12.5 percent edge no matter when he bets that horn – whether it is after whatever the bettor considered a streak (one, two, three or more horns thrown in a row) or even before such a streak existed.
If you follow the advice of the “see a horn, bet a horn” ploppies then why not bet the horn after you see even one horn number? Or two? The horn has a 17 percent chance of happening in a random game because, like the 7, it has a one in six probability of popping up. Certainly a controlled shooter can increase the appearance of the horn since he can decrease the appearance of the 7 by using the Hardways set. Isn’t that true?
It is true and false.
Yes, the controlled shooter using the Hardways set can decrease the overall appearance of the 7. And yes, the 7 and the horn have the same chance of showing up. And yes the controlled shooter can increase the appearance of the horn numbers but can he increase them enough to make the horn a profitable bet? Decidedly not – for almost all controlled shooters I have seen.
Now, yes, there are Golden Touch Craps master shooters who can increase the appearance of the horn enough to get the edge but why would they want to do this? If an elite shooter has a 13 percent edge, why would he want to make only one-half percent of a profit by shooting for the horn, whether he just saw one horn or several horns in a row? After all, you have to subtract the 12.5 percent horn edge from the controlled shooter’s 13 percent edge to establish the controlled shooter’s edge over the horn bet – a measly one-half percent.
Even if the shooter were godlike and had a 20 percent edge why go for a 7.5 percent profit when he can increase the appearance of the 6 and 8 where the house edge is only 1.5 percent and therefore get himself a 18.5 percent profit over those two bets?
A controlled shooter with godlike ability would have to be a divine ploppy to bet the horn and anyone who recommends such foolishness is in the ploppy category as well, whether he or she fancies him or herself a craps expert.
On some occasions, obviously, the horn numbers will come in unpredictable bunches but those occasions will not be enough to overcome all the other occasions when the horn numbers don’t flow but the player bet them anyway because a few just appeared.
Keep in mind, the controlled shooter has to overcome that horn edge – he needs a staggering number of horn hits to overcome the horn losses in order to beat that 12.5 percent house edge on the horn.
Now those “experts” who create a stringy streak such as the one that opened this article are playing fast and loose with reality. Once the string is written down many readers, even smart readers, will think that streak exists in stone. For example, in the real world of craps play, after that second horn number in the streak above (11) appears, no one can predict that the 12 or any other horn number is going to appear frequently enough to beat the horn house edge.
Controlled shooters do beat the game of craps and they do have somewhat predictable streaks based on their skill but such streaks must play into their real edge or the players are in an illusory state of mind in formulating their betting plans to include an awesomely high house edge bet such as the horn.
My advice is this: If you “see a horn” the smart move is to NOT bet a horn.
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