Hello Gman,

It sounds like the young man has been blessed with a short run of positive variance. I wish I could be that lucky.

You write that you know that in the long run, the young man will be a loser betting as he does. This is true.

Assuming he is a random roller and/or is mostly betting on random rollers, he will most certainly lose his bankroll in the long run playing a negative-expectation game such as craps.

The young random roller’s all-across bet is also troubling given the number of paying hits he needs to get back to even. It will take sizable hands to do so. You can do the math to show how many throws it will take him to break even given random distribution of numbers of two dice being thrown. As you know, even with his all-across bet, not all throws will be paying hits.

Interesting that along with his all-across bet, he is not taking full advantage of the best bet on the craps table – the odds bet. Unless this casino only offers 2X odds, that is.

The table below is a handout given to GTC students and is taught as part of the new GTC betting curriculum.

EFFECT OF INCREASED PASS-LINE ODDS ON HOUSE EDGE

ODDS TAKEN / HOUSE EDGE
1X / 0.85%
2X / 0.61%
3X / 0.47%
5X / 0.33%
10X / 0.18%
20X / 0.10%
100X / 0.02%

The odds bet itself has 0% house edge. This table reflects the combination of the 1.41% pass-line bet house edge with the 0% odds bet house edge.

Notice that when the odds bet increases, the house edge decreases. This is why GTC teaches that taking as much odds as you can comfortably afford is the smart advantage play.

Knowing your skill level will tell you what bets you have an edge on. SRR is but one component used to identify that advantage. SmartCraps is an excellent software program to identify the bets you have an advantage over… or not. Smartcraps will also show you the extent of your edge (or lack of edge) on the various craps bets.

As GTC teaches, trusting your throw and the skills fine-tuned by practice and then taking full advantage of only those bets you have a proven edge on is the way to beat this negative expectation game we all love.

Perhaps more information than your post asks for, but armed with this information and for the reasons given, I would not make the young random roller’s all-across bet.

I hope this helps answer your question.

😎 😎 😎

I wrote an article that describes what you are experiencing.

Read it in the following link:

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Having said that, I do not think it is a good idea to start by betting across the board. I think it is best to have 3 (at most 4) numbers to begin. Once you collect enough to double the amount of money you have on the board it is time to either press or spread out to more numbers. By doubling the amount you have on the board you have a profit equal to the amount you have on the board to start which you lock up.

My approach from there would be to either press or spread out with a specific amount in mind that I am going to add as an additional risk. Then I would hold there until I have made an additional profit equal to at least the additional amount I have put at risk. In other words I want a profit equal or greater to the total amount I have on the table. Then I would press my bets further from there, using something like a press and pull scenario.

This is a very aggressive form of betting. Some may want to have a larger profit before putting more money on the table. If you collect triple the amount of money on the table that would give you a profit of double what you start risking. This would be more conservative. Alternatively you could chose a number in between double and triple. The main point is to cover what you start with and then make a profit at least equal to what you started with on the table. This will provide you with protection on shorter rolls which is important.

Of course my personal philosophy is to use "The Big Skinny" which starts with come bets and then goes to adding place bets in addition to come bets as the roll progresses. Even if the casino only offers 2X odds, it is still a good bet as you can see from Timmer’s chart. Come bets as used in TBS provides you with better protection against short rolls than place bets.

You can read about The Big Skinny by clicking on the following link:

The Big Skinny

Can you tell me where to find the ” THE BIG SKINNY " on the website.
Thanks
TommyC

The last paragraph in my post above has a hotlink to the post about The Big Skinny. Click on that link to read about it.

Thanks.

gman,

A couple questions come to my mind.
How do you guys bet? (no so much amounts but style)
How do you press if at all?
Do you play on a regular predictable schedule?
Does this other player play on all shooters or keying on you guys?

If you care to provide some details I have some thoughts and observations from my own teams play and results.

JRC

Gman:

You have been to the classes and have heard Dom say "Know your edge and bet into that edge". Work within the limits of your 401G and do not get distracted by seeing short term wins from random players. Every dog has his day.

Timmer and Skinny posted excellent responses to your question so stick to the GTC teachings and you will be a long term winner. You have to play craps like a race horse……put on the blinders and block out all of the distractions and short term BS that can have a negative impact on an advantage player.

Thanks for your replies.

Here is an axample of what i am trying to say.

betting system

$5 pass line double odds

$6 6 & 8 starting out.

Pass line # is 5

Rolls are 4,8,6,9,9,10,2,4 9 sevenout.

Pass line point is 10
$5 pass line double odds $6 6 & 8
4,4,9,9,6,6,3,11,9 seven out.

now in this pattern you have an SRR of about 9, you are throwing some
box numbers and yet you lost money

Many times i play 6 & 8 and then a come bet and it most often end up on
the 6 or 8 instead of a 4 or 9 which i tend to throw a decent number of times.

It just seems to me if your roll is consistant with an extended SRR , would you
not get a 4 or 10 involved in your starting betting system. not every roll that is good,
lasts long enough to spread your bets out.

gman

gman,

Rolls such as this are more frustrating than a short 7 out. No bet would have resulted in a win in the case of these rolls. You have needed a pass or at least another hit or 2 on the 6/8 to have a win. What that means is to expect a win those rolls need to expand into the mid teens.

I have had a better result with a $5 pass. No odds unless the point is 6/8 then $10 odds. If point is other than 6 or 8 then a $12 6 and 8. Collect 2 hits and then press one unit on the number that hit or add odds to the pass line.

I either case it will take some longer rolls and more repeating numbers to put together a win. Playing at this level wins in that $100 range is not doing bad. Keep up the practice, bet smart and time will take care of the rest.

JRC

If you were using The Big Skinny with $5 line (pass/come) bets and single $5 or $6 (on the 5/9) odds you would have a max of $30 – $32 at risk. This is comparable to the $27 you started out with by playing $5 pass, $10 double odds and $6 each on the 6 and 8.

Playing TBS that way you would have lost -$12 on the first hand and won +$18 on the second hand for a net win of +6.

I am not saying TBS will always make more money than the way you are playing. I am only comparing how it would be on these two hands. You would have done better with TBS because it got you on numbers that your method did not and you had repeaters on those numbers.

If you are consistently able to hit more sixes and eights than random you may do better with your method of play. But if you throw other numbers as well and have repeaters on those numbers, you may want to consider TBS. That is one advantage with TBS.

The other advantage is that it gets you on the numbers more slowly so you get a bit of protection on a quick seven out before getting your total "net amount at risk" up on the table. There is also a bit of protection when one of your numbers is hit, comes down (as opposed to an "off and on") and you have to put up a new come bet to get up on another number. If you seven out at that point you collect on the last come and have one less number on the board that loses.

Pass line and three come bets you make 30 dollars total on the hands

"brothelman" wrote: Pass line and three come bets you make 30 dollars total on the hands

I get different numbers when I calculate the hands using Pass line and three come bets. Here are my calculations:

Using single odds, I get a net win of +$1 with Pass line and three come bets.

On the first hand you are up on the 4, 5, 8 and 6 initially. That is pass and 3 come bets. You don’t collect when you hit the 9 back to back because you would have to have a 4th come bet or 5 numbers to collect on that hit. You do collect +$15 on the 4 which comes down. You put out another come and go up on the 9 leaving you up on the inside numbers for -$42 which you lose on the seven out. You have a net loss of -$27 on the first hand.

On the second hand you are up on the 10, 4, 9 and 6 initially. That is pass and 3 come bets. You collect "off and on" on the 4(+$15), "off and on" on the 9(+$14) and come down on the 6(+$11) leaving you with only a 10, 4 and 9. You put out a new come to get back on the 3rd come, lose on the craps 3(-$5) and win on the yo 11(+$5). You collect "off and on" on the 9(+14) and +$5 for the last come when you seven out. At that point you are up on the 10, 4 and 9 losing -$31 (you came down on the 6). You have a net win of +$28 on the second hand.

Your net for the two hands is a win of +$1.