This is a moving target…
Are we talking about ourselves rolling, a ploppy rolling or another GTC’r rolling?
I use various combinations of strategy on each.
Good question, let’s fine-tune it for a good input for you.

Yes, Your right. I need to fine tune the question. Thanks for pointing it out Griz.

We’re talking about betting on a true Random Roller. Not a GTCer or someone trying to control the dice. Not someone you know. The amount of the bets are unimportant, but the strategy is. As for the Shooter, they are probably whipping the dice down the table. Their previous hands witnessed should be discounted.

As for you, You’ve 5 counted, or 4 counted and decided to throw some money in for some action. Your probably protecting your bankroll so that you can bet big on yourself when the dice make it to you.

Thanks…..

My rule of thumb is after the five count, I start another.

I do this five times and then put out a $6 6 and 8.

So I generally end up betting on 3 random rollers a trip.

If the crew gives me grief about not betting on others at a crowded table, then I would rather just gladly go find another table rather than waste my money.

Pointman Hey the record is held by a RR. So if by any chance I am on the table that breaks that record I want some of that action.
If I don’t like how they roll I will put up a come bet.
One if they roll a crap number or the dice go off the table.Then wait for win or loss with 1x odds.If win put in rack and wait one more roll then a come bet till win or loss with 1x odds. I do this until I feel better about things.If I win 3 or 4 come bets may place the 6 and 8 depends on the point.
Now if I like how the roller is throwing the dice I may place the 6 & 8 instead. Then after I put 3 or 4 times my lay out in the rack I will go up a unite till the record is broken. ( HOPEFULLY )
If the dice stay on the table and no crap numbers are rolled then the 5 count is there.I have won a few dollars betting a come bet after the dice go off the table or after a crap number.But not enough to think that it is a sure thing.Two crap in a row hurts some times.It makes me not bet for 3 or 4 numbers.
Never got passed 24.00 on any RR YET.
I have gotten past the 4th come bet to place the 6 and 8 for a loss though.
If do get up on 6 and 8 and roll comes out crap ALL BETS DOWN.Then wait.
Good Rolling. 😀

It’s pretty simple for Alligator Rose and I. On chicken feeders (CF’er’s) Rose puts a come bet out on the firse roll after the 5 count. If a box number is rolled I go with a come bet on the next roll. If if Rose’s first bet is a crap or 11 (if it is a 7 she makes $5 and I lose nothing and wait for the next CRer’s), I wait until her bet goes to a box number to make my come bet. We now have two numbers covered (one each) with single odds. That’s it.

If there are a bunch of CRer’s to roll before we see the dice again, we may take a bathroom break or step away for a "fake" phone call until several CFer’s have rolled and are out of the way.

I have confidence in Rose (and other known controlled GTC rollers) and I may go up a litte sooner on them. It all depends on how the throws look.

Just keep it simple and use the GTC principles BECAUSE THEY WORK.

Doc

Thanks all, Some of these are not what I expected. That’s a good thing.

"Levona" wrote: I use my sixth sense to pick out who will get hot and then I go all in on that person.

How, exactly, is that done. What clues you in to that special someone. Please share your secret.

I will place the 6 after the 5 count, unless 6 is the point, then I place the 8. If my place bet becomes the point, I just leave it where it is. I’ve been burned too many times doing the 6/8 two step and never getting paid.

I don’t make come bets because at my betting level I would have too much exposure unless I didn’t take odds. When was the last time you saw a come better not take odds?

Thanks for everyone’s great input. As you know, I’m trying to fine tune a five count strategy. N2S probably has the best one (not to bet at all) but I’m not sure I have his displine. So I’m taking each posts strategy and running it in SmartCraps to see what happens. Not everying can be taken into account. For example, Just feeling the right person, or dice thrown off the table,etc. I will do my best to keep to the spirit of that startegy.

None of these strategies will be winners. Without dice control/influence, you can’t beat the math of the game (period). We’re just going to find out what it costs us for that desire of gambling action. I will be sharing my findings. That’s the least I can do for the contributors to this thread sharing their strategy.

First, I’m going to share my current strategy, which I’m not a big fan of. It’s a 5 count then place both the 6/8 for $6 (assuming a 5 dollar table). Then I will press each independently after the 5th hit by 1 unit ($6.00). Meaning after 5 hits on the 6, I will add 1 unit ($6) to $12. On the 6th hit, add another unit ($6) to $18. etc. The 8 would stay at $6 until it has 5 hits, then the same progression.

THE RESULTS

As you can imagine, Not great.

SIMULATION RESULTS (10 million hands, Random)
====================
Win/loss rates:
*** Expectation: -1.528132%
(total of all wins and losses, divided by the total of all bets made)
Average earnings/loss per throw: -$0.024908
Average earnings/loss per betting event: -$0.112752
Average earnings/loss per hand: -$0.212256
Average earnings/loss per hour: -$2.490772
Average # of bets/hour: 22.1
(assumes 100 throws per hour)

Betting statistics (wagers only, no wins or losses):
# of betting events: 18,825,058
Average bet size: $7.3784
Standard deviation: $10.506100
Variance: $110.378142
Smallest bet size: $6.00
Largest bet size: $498.00
Sum of all bets: $138,899,256

Bankroll statistics (wins and losses only on bets made):
Average earnings/loss per betting event: -$0.112752
Standard deviation: $13.852954
(in earnings/loss dollars per betting event)
Variance: $191.904342
Largest wager lost: -$498.00
Biggest win: $567.00
Total earnings/loss: -$2,122,564.00

In the days ahead, I’ll be tackling the other strategies.

"sevenout" wrote: I will place the 6 after the 5 count, unless 6 is the point, then I place the 8. If my place bet becomes the point, I just leave it where it is. I’ve been burned too many times doing the 6/8 two step and never getting paid.

I don’t make come bets because at my betting level I would have too much exposure unless I didn’t take odds. When was the last time you saw a come better not take odds?

SIMULATION RESULTS (10 Million hands (Random Roller) using a place bet of $6.00)

Win/loss rates:
*** Expectation: -1.496966%
(total of all wins and losses, divided by the total of all bets made)
Average earnings/loss per throw: -$0.009922
Average earnings/loss per betting event: -$0.089818
Average earnings/loss per hand: -$0.084588
Average earnings/loss per hour: -$0.992196
Average # of bets/hour: 11.0
(assumes 100 throws per hour)

Betting statistics (wagers only, no wins or losses):
# of betting events: 9,417,770
Average bet size: $6.0000
Standard deviation: $0.000000
Variance: $0.000000
Smallest bet size: $6.00
Largest bet size: $6.00
Sum of all bets: $56,506,620

Bankroll statistics (wins and losses only on bets made):
Average earnings/loss per betting event: -$0.089818
Standard deviation: $6.473184
(in earnings/loss dollars per betting event)
Variance: $41.902115
Largest wager lost: -$6.00
Biggest win: $7.00
Total earnings/loss: -$845,885.00

Pointman Hope that you either have a lot of rollers rolling less then 5 OR have 20 or more rolls.
If 43% of the rolls you get on are more then 20 you should do good.
I really don’t like looking at 10 mil. rolls for that is the math for the long haul. Which I am to old to worry about.That 10 mil roll thing I will be long gone before that. 😀 😀
The next thousand might mean some thing tho? 😀 😀
I just looked at March rolls and to my surprise IF I would have bet 1.00 on the 3 I would of made $$. A bet that I never make.I had 2461 practice rolls with151 3s.
Looks like I would have thrown more but did use different sets that produced less 3s.
There was a total of 33 sessions with 6 losing if I had bet the 3 every time.
I set the 2s on 17 of those sessions with only 2 not winning on the 3.
It was strange to see that I would have made some thing on a bet I never make.
Hope to hear more on your progress.
Good Rolling. 😀

"Finisher" wrote:

I really don’t like looking at 10 mil. rolls for that is the math for the long haul. Which I am to old to worry about. That 10 mil roll thing I will be long gone before that. 😀 😀

The next thousand might mean some thing tho? 😀 😀

Good Rolling. 😀

Finisher,

I am really happy you brought this up because it is a very common belief amongst the vast majority of people.

I fully understand the problem most folks have with simulations run on a computer using millions of trials. Like you, most folks do not think this type of analysis applies to them in the real world because they will never have that many rolls in their entire lifetime. That is certainly a reasonable conclusion at which to arrive.

But in actuality simulations tell us much more than that. They do in fact give us significant information that applies to each and every one of us whenever we are at the tables. I am going to try to translate the "math speak" information that we get from Smart Craps into plain English so that you can see how it applies to each of us individually.

A little background in math terms so that you better understand how it applies to the real world. In the examples given we have a simulation of 10 million random rolls. Those rolls form a normal distribution and the program has calculated the mean, standard deviation and variance for that sample. The variance and the closely-related standard deviation are measures of how spread out a distribution is. In other words, they are measures of variability. We know that in a normal distribution 68% of the samples are within one standard deviation from the mean, 95% are within two standard deviations and 99% are within 3 standard deviations.

Great, more math goobledygook to further confuse the issue. Well, no, not really. I am giving you information to be able to translate what you get back from Smart Craps to see how it applies to you. When you are at the tables you certainly do not see 10 million rolls. But if you consider all the games going on in all the casinos in the world it is certainly possible for 10 million rolls to be taking place in a reasonably short time. Your individual session at the tables is just one part of those 10 million rolls that are taking place. AND we know from statistical probability the variability you can reasonably expect. Let us look at this in relation to sevenout’s betting method.

Bankroll statistics (wins and losses only on bets made):
Average earnings/loss per betting event: -$0.089818
Standard deviation: $6.473184
(in earnings/loss dollars per betting event)
Variance: $41.902115

The mean is a loss of 9 cents, the standard deviation is $6.47 and the variance is $41.90.

That means when sevenout bets in this fashion on random rollers he can expect to see the following results.

68% of the time he can expect his win/loss to end up between -$6.56 to +$6.38.
95% of the time he can expect his win/loss to end up between -$13.03 to +$12.85.
99% of the time he can expect his win/loss to end up between -$19.50 to +$19.32.

Finally he can reasonably expect his win/loss to vary by a total amount of around $41.90.

So that is how you can use the data you get from Smart Craps for your data sample to better understand what you can expect with your throw and bets.

Even though you personally will never have 10 million rolls, we can use the expected results for a large number of rolls to determine what we can expect to see with your data. This is how analysts are able to predict the results of a large population from a smaller sample. You will often hear them speak of an error rate of +/- some percentage. They are using the same techniques to project what will happen from a small sample. Of course, when dealing with people the way in which you select your data sample has a lot to do with how the study can be skewed. But when dealing with random rolls of the dice or even controlled throws we are dealing with a much more stable population. It is easier to predict the results we can expect with dice than with people.

But I digress, the next time you see the results from Smart Craps, just remember 2/3, 95% and 99%. Look at the standard deviation and average earnings. You can expect your results to be within a range of 1, 2 and 3 standard deviations from the average earnings 2/3, 95% and 99% of the time.

Does this help you to better understand how these samples of 10 million rolls actually do apply to you individually?

Does this help . YES Thank you Skinny.
I like math just a little.My son just started teaching High school math. Some times he will give me the answers that I need.
He just tells me that I need to take full odds on the way I throw. He enjoys playing craps with me only at the casinos. Never at home.
At the casinos he even passes on throwing and waits till the roller he likes gets the dice.Never really talked to much to him about dice control. Different generation.
All his teachers told him that he is wasting his time teaching but that is what he wants.It took him 10 yrs. to decide this.2 yrs construction and 8 yrs. ASU

thoughts

I don’t jump the 5 count on rythmic rollers or cfrs. I treat both the same more or less. Once a shooter makes it to th 5 count I place a come bet at table min . Alot of times they throw a 7. If not and my bet goes up on a box number I will put up 3x odds. If they make thier point I may make a table min pass line bet with 2x odds but no more money on th random roller till I have enough profit to justify spreading out.The GTCway is the way to go,when in doubt pull the book out.