Craps

Another Smart Craps Question

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It is so much easier to ask the mathematical geniuses on the website the questions than it is to try to figure out the Smart Craps program through tutorials.

Question: When I’ve finished a roll set…let’s say its 100 rolls. At the end, when you click on ‘Statistics’ the program displays and "Outcomes summary"
There are three columns: # Occurrences; # Expected ProTest Score

Occurrences and Expected I understand. What is it they are telling you about each number on the Pro Test Score? For example, it might say that you made less 5’s than expected and you have a Pro Test percentage of 3.26%. You might make more 10s than expected and have a Pro Test Score of 11.5%. These are not real number examples from actual Roll Sets, but I’m trying to get an explanation as to what the summary is telling the shooter. Is the % the % of the total rolls? And, how does Smart Craps tell you what your ‘hot’ numbers are over a 1000 or 2000 roll stat run?

Answer would be appreciated….Skinny? : )

Alamo


Replies:

Posted by: Skinny on June 25, 2013, 1:44 am

I don’t know enough about Smart Craps to answer your question specifically. Perhaps Dice Pilot or someone else who knows Smart Craps better than I do can give you the answer to your specific question.

I do know that one of the summaries gives you the chi square value for each of the 11 possible outcomes with the dice. Chi Square is the difference from the expected value squared divided by the expected value. Expected value is what is expected for a random roller. Actual is what you threw. So you want that number to be large because it is a measurement of how different you are from random. You also want the difference to be positive on the box numbers 4,5,6,8,9,10 and negative on the 2,3,7,11,12. That is because you want to be throwing more box numbers and less craps and sevens than a random roller.

But it does not sound like this is the report you are discussing because in your report you said it is showing ProTest Score instead of Chi Square in the last column.

Posted by: AlamoTx on June 25, 2013, 1:09 pm

Skinny –

When you finish a roll set, you can select ‘Statistics’ which gives you the summary information I was mentioning. I guess my post was asking for an explanation of what the summary for that roll set is showing me. I would like to find out at some point which numbers I am most favorably disposed to throwing, beyond random. Empirically, I seem to roll many more 10s than 4s and a high number of 4s are the HW. I always set the dice with the 5s on top. Again, just by observation, this SEEMS to tell me that the four is showing because it is opposite the 5s, meaning the rotation of the dice is ending within a range somehow. It would be nice to judge those things by the math, however.

I just don’t have the time to tutor myself on the Smart Craps software. Looking for a simple way to determine what are my ‘hot’ numbers given the nature of my particular throw. There might, for example, be an alternative to placing $44 inside. If the 4 is hotter than, say, the 9. I could place a 4, 5, 6 & 8 rather than the inside numbers which would favor the random analysis.

Alamo

Posted by: AlamoTx on June 28, 2013, 6:14 pm

Still wondering if anyone can explain this ‘summary’ thing in Smart Craps. Trying to find what my hot numbers are.

Posted by: sevenout on July 2, 2013, 1:52 am

"AlamoTx" wrote: Still wondering if anyone can explain this ‘summary’ thing in Smart Craps. Trying to find what my hot numbers are.

The hot numbers are usually the ones I’m not on. 😉

Posted by: Stephen C on July 2, 2013, 5:28 am

My hot numbers change from week to week, day to day, hour to hour, casino to casino, table to table, minute to minute. What I’m trying to say is that Smart craps can analyze your most recent sequence but it cannot predict what your next hand is going to look like, or what numbers you’re going to be throwing next week. It is a tool that helps you gauge your progress.

Posted by: AlamoTx on July 2, 2013, 6:29 pm

Stephen –

That does make some sense, but what I’m talking about is being able to analyze maybe 10,000 rolls so that if, for example, you are going to limit your outlay to $44 and you are placing the 6 & 8 for $12 each…and you’ve got two other numbers to choose from, it would be nice to know that you hit the 4 almost as much as you hit the 9. You could buy the 4 for $25 instead of placing the 9 just because its an inside number. Again though, I understand that nothing predicts what number is coming next. Just trying to see what the math might tell me vs hunch playing. If, per Smart Craps, my chance of hitting a 4 is just about the same as hitting a 9, I might rather try to nail the $50 pay vs the $35 pay.

Alamo