Carl asks

I’ve been reading quite a number of posts on other boards lately and one "authority" said that you should ALWAYS bet on controlled shooters because they have the edge and it would be foolish to use the 5-Count on them. What do you think, Frank? Should you use the 5-Count on controlled shooters or not? Is this "authority" right or wrong? His main idea is that with a positive expectation you always bet. I await your answer.

Dominator responds

I have seen these post also Carl, and I can’t tell you how sick I am about it! Again it is the delusional "experts" on boards that make claims.

First we know that the 5 count works. This is not an opinion it is fact, proven by math from a authority, Don Catlin, that is an authority for most of the major slot manufactors in the country, not some self professed "expert" on a web site.

Next, I know what my SRR is and what the expected SRR of the guys I play with most often, Frank, Mr Finesse, Sharpshooter, Billy the Kid, Tennor. IF we all lived in Vegas as this expert does, and we played together at the same table everyday, then I would go up on them immediately because their SRR will average out to be a winning SRR. But we don’t! Think of it like a baseball hitter that has a life time average of 300. In his carrier, he had many O for 4 games, and many 4 for 4 games to average out to 300 for his life.

A controlled shooter is going to have O for 4 nights. My partners and I play on three day stops during a seminar, not 365 days a year. By using the five count on each of them, I am not dissing them, I am being a SMART player. If they have a long roll I will be on it, if the roll is is short, I will not be on it and lose money. Now tell me, what is the smarter move, to expect that they will have their life average of SRR every time they roll the dice, or to wait to see if this time they are going to go 4 for 4? Any intelligent person with sound reasoning abilities can figure the answer to this one. But we are dealing on other servers with people that want to make a point that is opinion not fact, and want to get to the "Get Rich Quick" that so many players have.

Keep practicing and if you ever play with me at the tables, use the 5 count on me!

Dominator

Noah responds

I happened to play at the same table at Sams when GTC had the class there on I think it was Saturday night. I used the 5 count that night and even though the GTC people had a poor night that time, I made money at the table.

Noah

fscobe responds

I don’t know what "authority" you are quoting Carl but I had this same type of discussion with Timmer on Dice about six months ago. What Timmer failed to understand at the time, and I’m sure he understands it now, is the difference between a solid edge (solid as in not changeable, fixed) and a fluid edge (as in ever shifting). One represents games that don’t change in terms of odds or when they do change (as in blackjack and poker to a degree) you can actually calculate the change and the other is performance-based edges which are not concrete but ever changeable and not predictable or calculable except in retrospect.

Let me give you an example of a stagnant edge. The house has a 1.52 percent edge on the placing of the 6 and 8. It will always have that edge assuming a random game. It never changes. Each and every time someone shoots the dice, that edge is there, whether you are winning or losing. That’s why the casino will book the bet; in the long run it can’t lose on it. If you reversed the edge and paid out $7 for every $5 bet on the placing of the 6 or 8, now the player has a positive expectation and you would bet each and every roll into that expectation to maximize your winnings. It would be dumb to sit out a single roll of the dice. You’d also have your place bets working during come-out rolls.

Now, let me give you an example of a fluid situation. Right now Derek Jeter is batting 322. We all know what that means. For every 1,000 at bats, the guy gets a base hit 322 times — statistically speaking, based on past performance. So why is Joe Torre sitting him out in the series with the Red Sox? Jeter’s got one of the highest batting averages in either league. Doesn’t Jeter stand to get a hit approximately three out of every ten times at bat?

Only statistically.

Right now, I wouldn’t bet on Jeter being able to get a hit three times every ten at bats, nor does Joe Torre, because Jeter is injured! He has a sprained rib cage (I think). His performance is not up to his average right now.

I’ll give you another example. Last week Barry Bonds had to be taken to the hospital for exhaustion. Just prior to becoming light headed, he hit a home run and raised his batting average to 340. After he became light headed and, assuming you knew about it, suppose he decided to stagger up to the plate — would you bet for or against him getting a hit, given the proper odds based on his past performance? You would be an idiot to do so. Chances are the only hit you’d see would be a woozy Barry Bonds hitting the deck.

Finally, a dice controller with a broken throwing arm could have a SRR of 1:20 in the past, but would you figure him to have that now? Hell no. So you’d figure him to be just a random roller, if he could roll the dice at all.

The "authority" you are citing does not understand the difference between fixed edges and fluid edges. He also doesn’t understand the nature of the 5-Count. It is a completely mechanical way of eliminating the woozy, the broken armed, and strained rib cages of shooters from those who might be healthy.

There is (or was) a sports-betting syndicate that has developed a computer program to determine the outcome of certain performance-based activities in a strictly mathematical way. This syndicate does not bet on every game, even when the statistics of a team seem to indicate that this team will win and bettors think they have a sure thing. It looks for other factors and applies them. If those other factors are there, the computer says, "Put up a bet." This syndicate has won tens of millions in the sports-betting field using this program.

The 5-Count is like that program. If you knew how everyone was feeling when they were throwing; if you knew how the arms of all your dice-control friends were behaving, then you would never need to use the 5-Count on them. But you don’t know if your friend’s arm is in the Jeter-injured phase or the Jeter-healthy phase, so you apply the 5-Count to him.

There are times when I do go right up on the GTC guys as I did during the A&E filming (I shouldn’t have done that on the first night when we were exhausted and I paid for it). When we’re all relaxed and have had plenty of rest, I’ll figure (just a guess really) that they’ll be at their peak. When not rested, or early on in a session when not warmed up, I’ll use the 5-Count. If my friends are going to have a good roll, I’ll only miss a few numbers and I’ll be on them soon enough; if they aren’t going to have a good roll, I’ll save my money.

So keep in mind that performance based activities are different than fixed activities; one is fluid, the other is stagnant. In the fluid ones, you tread lightly because you are not sure of your footing at any given time; in the other, you plunge right in if you have the edge and bet each and every time. Your "authority" is no "authority" if he doesn’t know that.

And that’s why Derek Jeter is sitting out the games against the Red Sox even with his 322 average and that is why you use the 5-Count!

larryyeager responds

Frank,

Your explanation about fluctuations in individual performance is terrific. There is also a factor of the time to "groove in" to the table or even to determine that the table is not a good one. I paid a few extra dollars at the Connecticut class for in-casino training on why the five count is important. Mr. Finesse, who had the only good roll on Friday night, stopped me from getting hammered badly by pointing out that all of you were using the five count on each other.

I do agree with the expected value perspective that says bet whenever you have the advantage. This may include skipping the 5 count when the dice come back to a controlled shooter who has already established a rhythm. It would be interesting to analyze the statistics about subsequent hands following a profitable hand.

Also, if you are playing a progression on a controlled shooter, the 5 count may cost a lot more than the expected value of the first five rolls.

Replies:

No replies were posted for this topic.