Sorry, Dr. Don Catlin did the computation for the 5-count by doing a simulation. I don’t have the software to do that so I can not answer your question specifically.

But I can give you some information that might help.

Dr. Don Catlin determined the 5-count eliminates approximately 57% of the rolls by a random roller. In his simulation he did an experiment with a player who bet on every shooter and one who used the 5-count. The player who used the 5-count lost 57% less money than the Bet All player.

Now I am not sure if your question is asking about waiting 7 or 8 rolls or using a 7-count or 8-count before placing a bet. These are two different methods and will produce different results.

But in another calculation on the length of a roll Dr. Don Catlin determined that 57% of random shooters will seven out by their 7th roll. 63% of random shooters will seven out by their 8th roll.

So by waiting either 7 or 8 rolls you can expect to see the above results for random shooters.

I know The Goddess does not bother with the 5-count. She likes to count rolls and only bet after a shooter has completed 7 rolls. I told her she can expect approximately the same results as if she were to use the 5-count instead. The only difference is she would not be betting on the same exact rolls.

I hope this helps although it may not be answering the specific question you asked.

Just remember that no matter what you do you must do it the same ever time there is no guessing in math you have to do it the same every time to get the same results.

Using what you said Skinny, then waiting till the 8th count will eliminate 6 percent more players than waiting 5, 6, or 7 rolls

Dominator

"Dominator" wrote: Using what you said Skinny, then waiting till the 8th count will eliminate 6 percent more players than waiting 5, 6, or 7 rolls

That is more or less correct. There is a 63% chance a random roller will seven out by the 8th roll or earlier and a 57% chance he will seven out by the 7th roll or earlier. So waiting until the 8th roll will eliminate 6% more players than the 7th roll. The probability of a seven out by the 6th roll is 50% and by the 5th roll is 42%. The 8th roll will eliminate 13% more players than the 6th roll and 21% more players than the 5th roll.

Remember this is counting rolls and that is different than the 5 Count.

Here is Dr. Don Catlin’s chart showing the probability a random roller will seven out by rolls up to the 10 rolls.

[pre]Roll Probability of Seven Out
1 0.00000000
2 0.11111111
3 0.22788066
4 0.33264746
5 0.42387109
6 0.50278913
7 0.57095589
8 0.62980865
9 0.68060930
10 0.72445344[/pre]

I feel you have to stick with what works…the five count.. Anytime you try to guess the count, you will be wrong. It’s like the betters at the table going put on my bets, take off my bets..it drives me crazy!

Randman

Thanks Skinny
Yes that is what I was seeing. I have been waiting for the 7th or 8th roll to think about betting on a cf’er. And more times than not the chips are racked up to go in on the next roll, and OOPs the seven shows! Oh well, to bad!

On myself, I am leaning towards the 3 count if my dice are looking and responding well! Otherwise the 5 count comes to the front.

Also thanks for another of your posts on the feeling of rolling off ones fingers. I have had that in the past but of late not regularly. Looks like between a bit of a finger opening and a little wrist flex, my throw changed over time again. So many things to keep track of! Bring one in, and another goes out!!!

Stealthman, you are correct to say that things in your throw can change over time–bad habits can creep in from time to time. Looks like you are pretty good as self-diagnosis. Remember that the best golfers on the PGA take lessons on a constant basis. You should too. I suggest two things–play with a GTC student in your area who can observe your throw and most importantly, take the refresher course, elite video, and/or a tune up. They will really help.

Doc

"Skinny" wrote: [quote="Dominator"]Using what you said Skinny, then waiting till the 8th count will eliminate 6 percent more players than waiting 5, 6, or 7 rolls

That is more or less correct. There is a 63% chance a random roller will seven out by the 8th roll or earlier and a 57% chance he will seven out by the 7th roll or earlier. So waiting until the 8th roll will eliminate 6% more players than the 7th roll. The probability of a seven out by the 6th roll is 50% and by the 5th roll is 42%. The 8th roll will eliminate 13% more players than the 6th roll and 21% more players than the 5th roll.[/pre]

I was so happy when Skinny’s article on the old board said my 8 count would work the way I wanted it to. I like doing the 8 count on CF’ers because I didn’t like when I did the 5 count, and they 7’d out right after. Also, I can carry on a conversation, turn my head away from the table, and just listen for the sound of the dice hitting the felt. I count by moving my chips. I don’t need to know whether or not it was a point number.

I am not advocating this for anyone else. Also, when I am with my team, or other instructors, and I like the look of their shot, I don’t wait that long to bet on them.

Goddess