Doey don’t for comps is one of the things that about 75% of players play where I play V-craps. One player is almost Diamond. He averages 1000 point a day .When I play I may get 12 points for a 4 to 6 hr. play. What a difference!!!
Any comments?
Good Rolling. 😀
Replies:
Posted by: Skinny on January 23, 2012, 12:00 am
Do you really think the casinos are being generous and magnanimous when they give you comps? ❓ ❓ ❓
You are much better off paying for anything they comp you for yourself. It will cost you less in the long run.
Second the doey-don’t will lose more money than the straight pass or don’t pass line. It may seem like you are getting a hedge but in the long run the losses on the 12 that do not get offset because of the push on the don’t cost you more in the long run than if you had just bet only the pass or only the don’t. If you were to bet only the pass line the wins that offset the losses turn out to be a better way to go and will cost you less in the long run.
You see the purpose of the doey-don’t is to be able to make a wager where the win offsets the loss so that you are able to take odds on one of them because the odds wager has no House Advantage at all.
So the problem with the doey-don’t is that you have to make two wagers of the same amount in order to take odds on one of them versus someone who would only have to bet 1/2 as much to take the same amount in odds. In the end it is that betting of double the amount that costs you more money.
For example:
Let us say your friend who amasses 1000 points according to you bets $10 on the pass and $10 on the don’t pass for his doey-don’t wager. In 1980 rolls he can expect to roll 55 twelves. That will cost him an average of $550.
If on the other hand you bet a comparable $10 on the pass line 1980 times in order to be able to take the same amount of odds behind the pass line as your doey-don’t player. You could expect to win that pass line bet 976 times and lose that pass line bet 1004 times. That will only cost you $280.
So you see the doey-don’t will end up costing your friend more money than you.
If you wanted to bet the same $20 as your friend so that you could get rated the same you could expect to lose $560, a mere $10 more in losses than your friend who is playing the doey-don’t.
So if your friend is getting more points than you it is not because he is playing the doey-don’t at less risk. It is because he is betting a lot more money than you are and is getting rated higher than you for that reason.
BUT and this is the key ❗ ❗ ❗ I guarantee your friend is paying a lot more money in losses than you are if he is getting that much more in comps.
Posted by: Finisher on January 23, 2012, 6:30 am
All or most of these guys are old timers. They don’t play real craps this way. I have asked them and they all said no. A lot of them are come betters in the real game of craps. They seem to know the math of the game a lot better then I do any way.
It seems to me that they bet a lot but really have little wins or losses. So if you bet just that 10.00 on the pass and don’t pass with that dollar on every come out roll what would the end result be.I don’t know or have no idea how many come out rolls that would be.Or how many times you may hit that 12 on the come out.
They seem to bet more on the crap numbers then any place that I have played at. I have seen some people play 7or 8 machines at one time.That is more LIKE WORK to me then fun. I enjoy rolling the dice.So I just bet my dollar to pass the time by and talk to whom ever.
Great meeting you hope to roll with you some day.
Good Rolling. 😀
Posted by: Finisher on January 23, 2012, 5:24 pm
What it comes down to is this but I may be wrong.( this is not me. )
I love to play craps.
I have a way of betting that I like for this V-CRAPS PLAY.
I have no body in my life to speak of.
I have lots of time on my hands.
I don’t like to drive.
I like to eat at buffets.
I have friends now that like to do what I do.
I get a free ride to the casino every day plus a meal and 10.00 coupon.
They give me gifts every once in awhile.
I got enough gas coupons this year to last for the year and go to Vegas to play real craps and free room.
I found out that I missed a lot of offers because the son told casino to put my offers by E-mail which I never check. 😳 😳
Am I doing some thing bad ? I enjoy life more now in my last years here.
The wife has been go now for 10 yrs and I enjoy talking to the young 60 s year old now.
How sweet life can be and how short it can be for some and long for others.
There are more then one around JUST LOOK around .
Good Rolling. 😀
Posted by: Skinny on January 23, 2012, 6:39 pm
But I do know this. The casino has a formula it is using to determine how much to give out in comps. It is based on average bet, length of play and possibly on the type of bets being made. They may consider bets to be of 3 tiers: best, middle and worst. They can be giving more in comps for the bets with the higher house edges.
In the end none of that should matter to my analysis of the difference between playing the doey-don’t or strictly the pass or don’t pass by itself. I will analyze what happens if you bet the doey-don’t, the pass line by itself or the don’t pass line by itself.
If you were to bet $10 on the pass and $10 on the don’t pass, you are wagering a total of $20 on the doey-don’t.
In 1980 rolls you can expect to win your pass line wager 976 times and lose your pass line wager 1004 times. You will have a net loss of $280 on the pass line.
In 1980 rolls you can expect to win your don’t pass line wager 949 times, lose your don’t pass line wager 976 times and push on the twelve 55 times for a net loss of $270 on the don’t pass line.
You can expect a net loss of $550 while wagering a total of $39,600. The House Advantage on the doey-don’t is 1.39%.
If on the other hand you were to wager $20 on the pass line alone you could expect the following.
In 1980 rolls you can expect to win your pass line wager 976 times and lose your pass line wager 1004 times. You will have a net loss of $560 on the pass line.
You can expect a net loss of $560 while wagering a total of $39,600. The House Advantage on the pass line is 1.41%.
If instead you were to wager $20 on the don’t pass line alone you could expect the following.
In 1980 rolls you can expect to win your don’t pass line wager 949 times, lose your don’t pass line wager 976 times and push on the twelve 55 times for a net loss of $540 on the don’t pass line.
You can expect a net loss of $540 while wagering a total of $39,600. The House Advantage on the don’t pass line is 1.36%.
So as you can see there is not enough difference between how much you can expect to win or lose betting either the doey-don’t, pass or don’t pass to make up for the amount of difference in comps between what you are getting and your friends are getting. They are kidding themselves into thinking they are not risking much money because every wager is a wash (one wins and the other loses) unless the twelve appears. But even that infrequent appearance of the twelve costs them money. It costs them enough money that it is almost identical to betting the pass all by itself or the don’t pass all by itself.
You said they also like to put $1 on the twelve. That essentially is another hedge bet that can be analyzed separately.
In 1980 rolls they can expect to win the bet on the twelve 55 times, collecting $1650 and lose it 1925 times, losing $1925.
They can expect a net loss of $275 while wagering a total of $1980. The House Advantage on the twelve is 13.89%.
So if they bet an additional $1 on the twelve they are not protecting themselves against the twelve, they are just costing themselves more money. On the 35 rolls when the twelve does not appear they will break even on the doey-don’t and lose $1 on the twelve. When the twelve does appear, 1 time out of 36, they will collect $30 on the twelve, lose $10 on the pass line and push the don’t pass line wager for a net win of only $20. So every 36 rolls they can expect to lose $35 and win $20 for a net loss of $15.
Here is the bottom line:
I have shown how if you both bet the same amount of money for the same length of time you should both be losing approximately the same amount of money. They will not win or lose significantly more with the doey-don’t than you do by betting the pass line all by itself.
If they are getting more comps than you I am convinced it is because they are betting a lot more than you and/or playing a lot longer than you, not because they are playing the doey-don’t.
Posted by: Dominator on January 23, 2012, 9:08 pm
Dominator
Posted by: Finisher on January 26, 2012, 1:59 am
I think they only bet on the 12 on the come out. For is that is the time were you can loose and not win I think? I think that number would depend on how many come out rolls there would be.
I only bet 1.00 on the pass line so am not worried about comps.Also bet 1.00 on the 6-8.
It seems that with the math that you provided they would get 1980 points and cost 550.00 so that is over 3 points for every 1.00. That seems a lot better then any slot machine. Do you know of any that give you 3 points for every dollar you put in? Or did I do the math wrong ?
Does the math change if you make that bet on the 12 on come out only ?
I find this interesting since there are so many doing the same thing .
The comps are on 20.00 in or out it does not matter if it is on a low HA BET OR High HA bet. Of course if you win more then you get more comps .So if you bet on a high HA bet and win you will get more in comps.
They do place odds so there is more room for more losses too.
I don’t know if they know about paying the vig. on the bets that they make and on that is worked out in their system.
Good Rolling. 😀
Posted by: Finisher on January 26, 2012, 2:10 am
It seems like a lot of work to me. Just a thought.
Good Rolling. 😀
Posted by: Skinny on January 26, 2012, 3:34 am
I showed how much you could expect to lose on average betting the doey-don’t, the 12 on come out rolls only, the pass line or don’t pass line by itself.
There is very little difference between betting the doey-don’t, versus pass or don’t pass alone if you wager the same amount of money.
As I said the 12 is a side bet that can be analyzed separately. But my analysis was for come out rolls only, not once the point was established.
You said the points earned are based solely on how much you wager. Therefore time is not a factor.
That makes my argument even stronger. If they are getting more points, they are betting more money than you.
Posted by: Stealthman on January 26, 2012, 3:37 am
One morning I wanted to just play the machine by myself, and when I got there, a younger couple were there on 10 of the 12 machines, with $400 to 700 on each machine. Someone else had the other two machines. I watched for awhile and had a pleasant conversation with the unbusy blackjack dealer. The dealer stated they come in 2 or 3 times a week early in the morning and take all the machines and play for an hour or two. If someone wants to get in, they make room.
BUT what are they doing but not playing for comps??? I watched for quite awhile and they did not have any long hands, mostly low teens.
Sorry, but maybe they have found a small weakness in the system and are exploiting it?
The other act in town have a dice machine that gives stats that if watched long enough, mimic the true histogram. It was interesting to watch it change as rolls went by! At one point the hard 8 had not come up in 175 rolls.
It was fun and entertaining.
Stealthman
Posted by: Skinny on January 26, 2012, 5:45 am
Taking 10 machine with $400 to $700 on each machine and playing for 2 to 3 hours at a time certainly sounds like they are putting in more money than Finisher is putting into the machines.
Now as to whether or not they are exploiting a weakness in their comping methods or not we need to analyze the following. According to Finisher they get 1 point for every $20 they wager. So if they are playing the doey-don’t with $10 on the pass line and $10 on the don’t pass line they are wagering a total of $20 on each come out roll and should earn 1 point for that.
If they bet $20 on 1980 come out rolls they should earn 1980 points, wagering a total of $39,600 and expect to lose approximately $550 for the 55 times one can expect to see a twelve on the come out roll in 1980 come out rolls. They will lose their $10 pass line wager and push the $10 don’t pass line wager when a twelve appears on the come out.
Also, remember I said if you were to bet $20 on the pass line, 1980 times you would wager the same $39,600 and earn the same 1980 in points. You could expect to lose approximately $560 by betting only on the pass line.
If you were to bet $20 on the don’t pass, 1980 times you would wager the same $39,600 and earn the same 1980 in points. You could expect to lose approximately $540 by betting on on the don’t pass line.
So it does not make much difference in terms of money lost if you bet the doey-don’t, pass by itself or don’t pass by itself.
What you need to tell me is how much in comp dollars is 1980 points worth? Is it more or less than $550, $560 or $540?
Posted by: Finisher on January 26, 2012, 5:26 pm
Now is there a way to try and off set that loss with another bet? Some of those players will bet the 12 but not every time. I have seen a lady bet the 3 and go from a bye in of 20.00 to 1000.00 .That was very strange.Never seen any body bet that way and make money.Seen more loose more then win with that bet.She did not know what a pass line bet was just said that her father liked the 3 so she wanted to bet it. Her father must have been looking after her from above.
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Skinny on January 26, 2012, 6:00 pm
I know mathematically that the doey-don’t loses almost as much as the pass line or don’t pass line. I have given you the numbers and in a random game run on a computer your friends are losing more in money than they are getting in comps. They get more in comps than you because they bet a whole lot more money than you. But the good news is I am positive you do not lose nearly as much money as them. They are paying dearly for those high roller cards and comps.
Even though I am assuring you of the numbers I sense a bit of suspicion on your part. I feel you find it hard to believe that twelve which appears so infrequently can cause a player to lose just as much money playing that way as someone who is on the pass line all the time. Unfortunately, the math is the math. While it may seem that way intuitively that just goes to prove why gamblers play the way they do. They trust their intuition which is severely flawed when it comes to analyzing the math of the game.
As for trying to offset that loss with another bet, it does not exist. Any other bet will only make you lose more money. Every bet on a craps table, except for the odds bet, has a negative expectation. When you combine bets with negative expectations all you are doing is getting a bigger negative expectation. You are wasting your time trying to figure out a way to beat the system of a random game with betting systems to overcome them. Your friends are fooling themselves into thinking they have found one. They do not recognize how much they are actually losing because they are losing their money very slowly. The twelve appears rarely and that makes them think they are not losing very much.
If you bet $3,960 you only lose $55 and you lose that $55 very slowly. So it seems like you are only losing a little bit of money while betting a lot. But the same thing would happen if you bet the pass or don’t pass all alone. But because there is a win or loss on every decision with the pass line it seems like you lose a lot more when you run into a bad streak where you have several losses in a row or a lot more losses than wins over a losing streak. We tend to remember those losing streaks and forget the winning streaks that offset them. But with the doey-don’t you could easily play 100 or 150 hands without the appearance of the twelve. Then the twelve could appear 3 or 5 times rather quickly. But because of the long time without the twelve it seems like you aren’t losing that much.
One can not trust their own eyes in these cases. The math is not wrong but our feelings and emotions can cloud our judgement because of the patterns that develop naturally as a product of the random nature of the game.
Posted by: Stealthman on January 26, 2012, 8:13 pm
Both would go from machine to machine after every roll and it seemed were stripping bets off and placing bets on, depending on the machine. They did look to be texting themselves after every few throws. Each of them was dancing with the machines, there was no wasted motion. I guess they would have to be efficient as the machine count down clock is rather relentless in counting down.
Also these machines from previous episodes seemed to respond better to young men who looked like they have played a bunch of video games in their life. Their numbers that came up were much more consistent than others who would seem to just fling them or let the machine toss them.
Very interesting to watch the reaction of the video dice as they could be controlled to land in the flat area as well as the mixing bowl.
Stealthman
Posted by: Finisher on January 27, 2012, 6:40 am
I think that lady was a seven star that plays the doey don’t.When she played next to me she played two machines plus the roulette machine. How crazy is that.
Good Rolling. 😀
Posted by: Finisher on January 27, 2012, 7:14 am
I heard one player tell another player that he know nothing about craps .But he saw a lady betting and did the math and started playing because it seemed to work. He does not set the dice .Just lets the machine roll .If the roll goes into a long one he does not care since the bet are off setting I guess?
I like to bet the 6-8 and press every bet.The most I have gotten the press to is 6.00 on one number.My best roll on this machine was a 60 and one 50 roll. But at that time I was pulling more then pressing.Started with 15.00 and ended with 75.00 .It was fun.The couple across from me loved it they were 5.00 betters. The last few trips have not gotten past 40 yet.
It seems that if I make come bets after I get up on 4 or 5 numbers I roll that 7.If I just make place bets I cant get past that 5.00 press. I rolled 4 hard 4s the other day . They were in a row.Talk about patterns.
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Stealthman on January 31, 2012, 4:40 am
Fills the time I guess.
Stealthman
Posted by: ACPA on January 31, 2012, 5:47 pm
I.e., 8 sevens have been rolled, odds are 1 out of 6 that the next roll will be a seven, if by a CFer.
Noah
Posted by: Dominator on January 31, 2012, 10:53 pm
Dominator
Posted by: Finisher on February 1, 2012, 6:56 am
Good Rolling. 😀