Keep us informed as you progress. You are on the way to success.

Noah

This is a terrific post, Butcher, and reaffirms our selection of you for POM for November. Your positive attitude will certainly help you progress through the problems a stroke presents. Keep posting to let us know how you are doing. Your posts will give an incentive to others who have to work through their own problems.

Goddess

What else can I say as the others have pretty much said it all. With a plan like yours you will succeed. If I were to add anything, since you have taken several courses, I would suggest that you take a tune up from time to time (once a year for example) or even the elite video so you will have a DVD of your throw with corrections from No Field Five.

Remember becoming a GTC advantage player is not a destimation but a journey–one that never ends as you continue to learn and improve.

Great post.

Doc

"Dr Crapology" wrote: What else can I say as the others have pretty much said it all. With a plan like yours you will succeed. If I were to add anything, since you have taken several courses, I would suggest that you take a tune up from time to time (once a year for example) or even the elite video so you will have a DVD of your throw with corrections from No Field Five.

Remember becoming a GTC advantage player is not a destimation but a journey–one that never ends as you continue to learn and improve.

Great post.

Doc

Thanks all. Your words of encouragement mean alot to me. Dr.C I did take a tuneup before the refreasher in 2011 ( AC) and it did help. I look forward to taking an Elite video but since it’s not on the schedule for AC in 2013 it may be Vegas in Oct before I can swing it. Maybe Vegas in June.

I look forward to working with No Field Five or any other of the instructors because every time I get the chance to work with an instructor my game improves alot.

Post of the year… IMHO

Hope this brings this to the front. Butcher was trying to find it.

Noah

Well I have a question for the MATH guys .
My plan is to not make a pass line bet but rather do one come bet .I wanted to know what are the odds of winning each just in case I am going about this wrong .
They both end up being contract bets that I know . But how often would I win with the come verses the pass line bet .It just seems better since the PWs do take some time at times and repeat numbers come up .
I also realize that a point 7 out would give me a win were if I was on just pass line I would loose .
Thanks for any input you may have .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

The HouseAdvantage on a pass line and on a Come are exactly the same on either bet.

Noah

The odds of winning a come bet are the same as the odds of winning a pass line bet on a random roller. You can expect to win 244 times and lose 251 times each time you make either wager.

By waiting for a player to establish his point and then making a come bet on him you will still be making a line bet on each and every random roller. The only way to protect your bankroll with random rollers is by using the 5 count or some other method that will prevent you from betting on each and every shooter.

If you were to employ the 5 count before making your wager you could save approximately 57% of your bankroll by doing so. That is because the 5 count eliminates approximately 57% of the shooters. You will not risk any money on those players who seven out before completing the 5 count. Once you make a pass line or come bet on a player who completes the 5 count you can still expect to lose 7 of those wagers for every 495 that you make. But with the 5 count you will be risking less since you will not be betting on every random roller at the table.

Let me put that into dollars for you so that it is easier to understand. If you were to make 200 line wagers at $5 each, over time you would be risking a total of $1000.

If you make a pass line wager right away on random rollers you can expect to lose $14 for every $1000 wagered.
If you wait for him to establish a point and then make a come bet you can expect to lose $14 for every $1000 wagered.
If you use the 5 count before making a wager on random rollers you can expect to bet on 86 players instead of 200 over the same period of time at the tables. In that case you can expect to lose $6 because you would only be risking $430 instead of $1000 over that time period.

Leave it to Skinny to put it all in perspective!

Dom

John,

Doesn’t the math make it easier to see in Black and white. Thanks for the simplifying the numbers, maybe more will understand what you are talking about and understand the 5 count even better.

I should have asked which wins more often a pass line bet or a come bet ?
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I answered that question when I said:

"Skinny" wrote: The odds of winning a come bet are the same as the odds of winning a pass line bet on a random roller. You can expect to win 244 times and lose 251 times each time you make either wager.

Neither one wins more or less than the other. They both have an equal chance of winning.

You seem to think that you win a come bet more because you win if the shooter throws a point seven. But you are equally likely to win your pass line bet if the shooter throws a seven on his first roll.

They are essentially identical bets. The only difference is the timing of when you make one vs. the other.

I was thinking there would be some difference for the fact different numbers come up different . Like if your come bet was on the 6 or 8 were the point may be a 4 or 10 .
I also thought that the big skinny was based on getting repeat numbers rather then making your point .So thought there would be a slit better odds with a come bet .
I have not come bet a lot but the little that I have it seems that they come up more then a point win does .
So do you find that your come bet wins are equal to your pass line wins ?
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

"Finisher" wrote: I was thinking there would be some difference for the fact different numbers come up different . Like if your come bet was on the 6 or 8 were the point may be a 4 or 10 .
I also thought that the big skinny was based on getting repeat numbers rather then making your point .So thought there would be a slit better odds with a come bet .
I have not come bet a lot but the little that I have it seems that they come up more then a point win does .
So do you find that your come bet wins are equal to your pass line wins ?
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Yes, if your come bet goes to the 4 or 10, you will win that bet less often than if it goes to the 6 or 8. Of course the same is true for a pass line bet as well. But the odds of winning a come bet or pass line bet take that into consideration. We calculate the house advantage by taking into consideration every possible outcome for a come bet. For example, in 1980 rolls you can expect to get a point of 6, for a come or pass line bet, 275 times. Once it goes to the 6 you can expect to win 125 times and lose 150 times. In that same 1980 rolls you can expect to get a point of 4, only 165 times. You can then expect to win that bet 55 times and lose 110 times.

Yes, you will win more often with a point of 6 or 8 (125 vs. 150) than with a 4 or 10 (55 vs. 110).

The thing is you have no way of knowing which point your come bet is likely to go to. What makes you think you are more likely to have a come bet go to a 6 or 8 instead of a pass line bet going to a 6 or 8? Why do you think you are more likely to establish a point of 4 or 10 on the pass line vs. a come bet? The odds of it happening are the same for a come bet as it is for a pass line bet.

The big skinny is based on the fact that pass line and come bets are the lowest house advantage bets on a craps table so they are the best bets to make. With come bets you get your money on the table a bit slower than if you put place bets on the table immediately. That gives you a bit of protection on short rolls. But the main idea is that pass/come bets with max odds provide the lowest house advantage available.

The exception is if you have a proven big advantage with a specific number. Folks (and they are very rare) who are able to get 3 standard deviations or more from the mean throwing the 6/8 or 4/10 would be better off placing/buying those numbers immediately.

Come bet wins are definitely equal to pass line wins. There is no difference between them.

Skinny,

I get so much value from your input, as I’m sure we all do. Every time I read one of your posts I learn a bit more about this game we all love. I use the Big Skinny but don’t yet have enough control to get the long rolls with any consistency. My current SRR is in a range from 6.5 to 7.0 with just over 5000 recorded rolls. Just started using TBS in Casino play but my skill level needs to improve.

It would be nice if someone who knows how could gather all your posts into one special thread. Even better, maybe you should write a book 😀

Thanks for enriching this forum with your knowledge and patient style.

What a great idea Jawbones!

Would be nice if there was a thread such as "Skinny’s Math of the Game" or something like that where all of the Craps math questions could go. Not that other instructors couldn’t add to it but just that Skinny’s explanations are always so well presented and easy to understand! Thanks Skinny! 😎

😀 😀 😳 😳

"ACPA" wrote: Hope this brings this to the front. Butcher was trying to find it.

Noah

Thanks Noah. I was trying to find it. When I got back on the forums following the stroke my subscription had to be renewed but there was a little delay for some reason and my posts were [posting as a guest? A few months ago Dom got my screen name issues straightened out but posts that were under guest didn’t get picked up. No matter thanks for moving it up so I could read it again. As far as the stroke goes I am recovering slowly. My walking is getting stronger and I was recently invited to participate in a research study through U of Penn and Moss Rehab, The study has to do with my left arm and hand. I have been practicing and playing a little. Not back like I was but some good results here and there. I should be receiving my new table I ordered through Dom soon.

Butcher

I didn’t realize you suffered from a stroke. I am so glad that you are doing better and I hope the research group can get you close to 100%

Dom

Yes Dom, I had a stroke May 3,2012 that impacted my left arm, hand and leg. My left side was totally paralyzed for 6 months. Since then over the past 3 years I have been recovering slowly. I took the advanced class and Elite video this past September in AC. I’m finally out of the wheel chair. 😀 I’ll see you in Vegas in June. 😀

You know sometimes I don’t out the handles of people on this forum with the person …… Sorry about that Bill….. of course I knew and you are doing great!

Dom