Skinny,
Colorado is testing the fire bet here and I need ammunition right away to combat the idiots on our gaming commission.
Payouts are as follows:
3 numbers $6
4 numbers $29
5 numbers $149
6 numbers $299
What I need is the house advantage as it is in Nevada and then calculated for Colorado. Will you help please.
Thank you in advance.
OMC
Replies:
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 12:19 pm
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 1:39 pm
Fire Bet-Donald Catlin
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/the-fire-bet-57750
Fire Bet[/tds] Point Made[/tds] Probability[/tds] Pays[/tds] Return[/tds] 0[/tds] 0.593939393939[/tds] -1[/tds] -0.593939393939[/tds] 1[/tds] 0.260750492004[/tds] -1[/tds] -0.260750492004[/tds] 2[/tds] 0.101275355549[/tds] -1[/tds] -0.101275355549[/tds] 3[/tds] 0.033434212179[/tds] -1[/tds] -0.033434212179[/tds] 4[/tds] 0.008798178440[/tds] 24[/tds] 0.211156282560[/tds] 5[/tds] 0.001639933139[/tds] 249[/tds] 0.408343351611[/tds] 6[/tds] 0.000162434749[/tds] 999[/tds] 0.162272314251[/tds] Total[/tds] 0.999999999999[/tds] [/tds] -0.207627505249[/tds] [/tables][clear][/clear]
The reason that (for example) the payoff corresponding to the number 4 is 24 is because the payouts were stated as 25 for 1 rather than 25 to 1. When the payoff is 25 for 1 the 25 includes the unit wager so you are really only winning 24 units.
From the above result we see that the Fire Bet has a house edge of approximately 20.7628%, not a very good wager for the player.
I believe if you substitute your Colorado Payout -$1 in the Pays column and then do the multiplication you will have your answer to enter into the Return column.
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 2:09 pm
I could give more information if I knew whether the Payout was on a To or For basis.Payouts are as follows:
3 numbers $6
4 numbers $29
5 numbers $149
6 numbers $299The Payout numbers appear to be on a For basis, but I could be wrong.
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 2:19 pm
Here is a quick calculation corrected with the numbers as you gave them.
[pre]Fire Bet Return Proposed Colorado
Fire Bet ReturnPoint Probability Pays Return
0 0.593939393939 -1 -0.593939393939
1 0.260750492004 -1 -0.260750492004
2 0.101275355549 -1 -0.101275355549
3 0.033434212179 6 0.200605273074
4 0.00879817844 29 0.25514717476
5 0.001639933139 149 0.244350037711
6 0.000162434749 299 0.048567989951
Total 0.999999999999 -0.207294765996[/pre]corrected for $299 instead of $249
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 2:30 pm
If the Payout was on a For basisFire Bet Return Colorado
[pre]Points Probability Pays Return
0 0.593939393939 -1 -0.593939393939
1 0.260750492004 -1 -0.260750492004
2 0.101275355549 -1 -0.101275355549
3 0.033434212179 5 0.167171060895
4 0.00879817844 28 0.25514717476
5 0.001639933139 148 0.242710104572
6 0.000162434749 298 0.048405555202
Total 0.999999999999 -0.242531346063[/pre]corrected for $298 instead of $248
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 2:48 pm
OneMoonCircles ,If you are presenting before the Gaming Commission, you need to know if the Payout is on a To 1 basis or a For 1 Basis.
The number of Wins needed for Payout and the Probability tables used can make a difference in the Return for the player.
Posted by: Guest on July 18, 2012, 3:09 pm
Skinny, I hope that you will please give a definitive answer.I am just a dilettante and not an expert.
Posted by: Stephen C on July 18, 2012, 4:09 pm
As I remember from two weeks ago it is paid on the "FOR’ side of the equation. But not 100% on that.Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 2:17 am
I just noted that I used an incorrect Payout for the 6th Point Number made. I have edited the spreadsheet numbers accordingly.corrected for $299 instead of $249
Anyone, please notify me if you find any miscues in my spreadsheets, charts, or tables(I am perfectly capable of making mistakes).
Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 2:33 am
I just found Wizard of Odds Fire Bet Pay Tables at:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/Fire Bet — Pay Table C
[pre]Points Made Pays Probability Return
0 -1 0.593939 -0.593939
1 -1 0.260750 -0.26075
2 -1 0.101275 -0.101275
3 6 0.033434 0.200605
4 29 0.008798 0.255147
5 149 0.001640 0.244350
6 299 0.000162 0.048568
Total 1 -0.207295[/pre]Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 2:38 am
Here is a list of websites for Fire Bet Pay Tables:Posted by: Skinny on July 19, 2012, 3:43 am
"CIII" wrote: I just found Wizard of Odds Fire Bet Pay Tables at:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/Fire Bet — Pay Table C
[pre]Points Made Pays Probability Return
0 -1 0.593939 -0.593939
1 -1 0.260750 -0.26075
2 -1 0.101275 -0.101275
3 6 0.033434 0.200605
4 29 0.008798 0.255147
5 149 0.001640 0.244350
6 299 0.000162 0.048568
Total 1 -0.207295[/pre]Yes, it looks like you have it right CIII.
The House Advantage comes in at 20.73%.
I believe Colorado is proposing Pay Table C in the Wizard’s website.
Posted by: CC Roller on July 19, 2012, 3:54 am
OMCWhere I play they use the Table A payout ie
4 numbers 25 for 1
5 numbers 250 for 1
6 numbers 1000 for 1It is still a bad bet as CIII and Skinny have said in the past
CC Roller
Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 11:45 am
Where I play they use the Table A payout ie
4 numbers 25 for 1
5 numbers 250 for 1
6 numbers 1000 for 1It is still a bad bet as CIII and Skinny have said in the past
CC Roller
There are sensible bets and less sensible bets.
Any bet that you don’t win is a bad bet!
Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 10:01 pm
I saw an ad for "the Lodge" in Colorado, they were advertising $300 for the max payout on the fire bet. I had heard it shold have been more like $1000. But our state (Colorado) has a max bet of $100….Posted by: Stickman on July 19, 2012, 10:34 pm
Isn’t it nice that your state is willing to protect its citizens against themselves? I thought Minnesota was bad……Posted by: Stephen C on July 19, 2012, 10:35 pm
"Mike-ro-wave" wrote: I saw an ad for "the Lodge" in Colorado, they were advertising $300 for the max payout on the fire bet. I had heard it shold have been more like $1000. But our state (Colorado) has a max bet of $100….
Correct Colo’s max bet is $100. However, the pay out is based on $1 increments. For $1 on the Fire bet, should the 6th point be made the house would pay you $300. Has nothing to do with the maximum bet. Go back to the post that give the URL for the Wizard of Odds, there you will find several different pay tables.
Posted by: Guest on July 19, 2012, 11:16 pm
Very true, the max bet doesn’t really have much to do with it. On Table A it shows 999 for 6 numbers is that with a $5 bet? I was a little confused.Posted by: CC Roller on July 20, 2012, 3:14 am
"Mike-ro-wave" wrote: Very true, the max bet doesn’t really have much to do with it. On Table A it shows 999 for 6 numbers is that with a $5 bet? I was a little confused.
Mike
The 999 for 1 means $999 for $1 bet. Therefore if you bet $5, and 6 numbers come up you would win $4995.
Most casinos have a max bet of $5 on the firebet , but last year I saw a max of $10 in some Vegas casinos.
CC Roller
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 20, 2012, 5:52 am
Stickman and all,If Colorado is to have the fire bet at least the bastards should use pay table A and not C. That is my goal. The gaming commissioners are totally uneducated about craps and I suspect not very educated about gambling in general. There is a new group since I started going as far as the commissioners are concerned, some terms have expired (they are limited as to how long they are allowed to serve). I am just trying to help all craps players get the best deal possible on a terrible bet.
Now, can someone tell me if I am correct. I calculate it takes about 6480 (I’m unsure if this is rolls or hands) to hit 6 numbers once. If this is hands then about 38800 rolls at random. Percentages will only confuse the commissioners but they may get it if I can show how many rolls or hands.
24.7% house advantage is greater than the slots I think. Just horrible.
Thanks to each of you for all your help.
OMC
Posted by: fscobe on July 20, 2012, 9:58 am
The Fire Bet is worse than the worst slots in any casino in the country. No slot machine is withholding more than 17 percent (that would be Megabucks). There is an "however" however. On the slots you play many more decisions so you will over time lose much more money on slots.Still, to put it in English, the Fire Bet sucks. It only sounds like a good bet.
Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 20, 2012, 11:19 am
As usual Frank is correct. Even the best of the dice controllers do not have a 20 to 25% edge so tlhis bet is a big loser in the long run. Can you imagine betting this bet with a chicken feeder!! You are dead meat. I have been keeping a record here at home in practice by placing a chip on the box number when it is a passs line bet and I make the point. I made 4 points one time in a year. That’s it. I don’t bet it.Doc
Posted by: Guest on July 20, 2012, 1:21 pm
A little refresher course on Payouts.For 1 and To 1 Payouts.
Casinos differ in how they state their Payouts.
In order to make their game look like a better game for the players, some casinos state their Payouts on a For 1 basis.
Therefore, all of their Payouts appear to be one unit higher than the competion’s To 1 Payouts.
Most casinos Pay 4 to 1 on a Proposition bet on the seven. The sharpster Pay 5 for 1. There is no difference between these two payouts.
You still only win $4. $4 added to your $1 bet is the same as $5 for your $1.
The center proposition bets in those casinos state all of the Payouts on a For 1 basis to confuse the suckers.
All Fire Bets that I have seen are on a For 1 basis.
Posted by: Skinny on July 20, 2012, 4:37 pm
"OneMoonCircles" wrote:
Now, can someone tell me if I am correct. I calculate it takes about 6480 (I’m unsure if this is rolls or hands) to hit 6 numbers once. If this is hands then about 38800 rolls at random. Percentages will only confuse the commissioners but they may get it if I can show how many rolls or hands.
OMCYou are pretty close with your estimates. The probability of a random roller making 6 points is .000162434749269826.
That translates to a random roller making 6 points approximately once every 6,156 times he makes the bet. Yes, that is once every 6,156 hands.
The average length of a hand for a random roller is 8.522551 rolls. 6,156 X 8.522551 = 52464.823956
That means you can expect to see 6 points made by random rollers once in every 52,464 rolls.
Posted by: Guest on July 20, 2012, 5:14 pm
You could die waiting. 😯Posted by: Guest on July 20, 2012, 5:46 pm
Re: Fire Bet:
Bretboy1 said:You could die waiting. 😯
I have stated often, in the past, that the Fire Bet is a bad bet, and many of the upper echelon GTC regulars state the same thing.
I would also be remiss if I did not state that I will make the Fire Bet for my self, on my own roll, and also sometimes for the crew. Wow, I must be a ploppy!!!
In my estimation ,it is even worse for the elite shooters who can keep the die on-axis and repeat numbers to make a Fire Bet.
You don’t need someone like Stickman, who repeats sixes often, to make a Fire Bet!
You don’t need someone like Frank who repeats 6’s and 8’s, to make a Fire Bet!
A more random shooter who can make many different Points has a better chance to hit the Fire Bet.I have seen more Fire Bets rolled by Don’t Players, who are trying to avoid making any points, than controlled shooters.
Now you must understand that I have reasons for making the bet. I have hit it often and believe that you should bet on what you are tossing. My records show that I am ahead on the Fire Bet on myself.
You should also know that I hedge the Fire Bet after having hit the fourth number and have set the fifth number and then the sixth number!
Posted by: Not2soon on July 21, 2012, 3:54 am
"CIII" wrote: Re: Fire Bet:
Bretboy1 said:You could die waiting. 😯
I have stated often, in the past, that the Fire Bet is a bad bet, and many of the upper echelon GTC regulars state the same thing.
I would also be remiss if I did not state that I will make the Fire Bet for my self, on my own roll, and also sometimes for the crew. Wow, I must be a ploppy!!!
In my estimation ,it is even worse for the elite shooters who can keep the die on-axis and repeat numbers to make a Fire Bet.
You don’t need someone like Stickman, who repeats sixes often, to make a Fire Bet!
You don’t need someone like Frank who repeats 6’s and 8’s, to make a Fire Bet!
A more random shooter who can make many different Points has a better chance to hit the Fire Bet.I have seen more Fire Bets rolled by Don’t Players, who are trying to avoid making any points, than controlled shooters.
Now you must understand that I have reasons for making the bet. I have hit it often and believe that you should bet on what you are tossing. My records show that I am ahead on the Fire Bet on myself.
You should also know that I hedge the Fire Bet after having hit the fourth number and have set the fifth number and then the sixth number!
Are you kidding me?!?!?!?!?!
Long live the fire bet!
Down with Skinny!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 21, 2012, 5:55 am
Skinny,Those are the numbers I am looking for. Can you do the 4 and 5 hits please. Since Colorado is doing the table c payout it would be nice to have the 3 hits as well. I want to try to get them to at least switch to the table a payouts if they are going to allow the fire bet in Colorado.
Maybe get them to add the 3 hits to the a table.Sometimes this seems like so much wasted time. John Patrick had it right when he said "there are 2 types of gamblers, experts and dopes."
I am trying to be an expert but also help the dopes if only just a little.OneMoonCircles
Posted by: Guest on July 21, 2012, 7:05 am
Skinny, you have a Private Message.Posted by: Guest on July 21, 2012, 2:44 pm
I want to go on record to say that I think higher payouts (in general) should be available in Colorado… and I want to thank onemooncircles for trying to make that happen. If you need a petition signed you have my support as well as my family.Posted by: Skinny on July 21, 2012, 5:53 pm
First things first. In my previous post I wrote about making 6 points and I should have been more specific by saying 6 different points. There is a bet called the Sharp Shooter that pays based on the number of points one makes. In that bet you can repeat points and they count towards the payout. But in the fire bet one has to make different points to count towards the payout. To be clear, I was discussing the fire bet and writing about making 6 different points.OMC since it is your objective to get the gaming commission to change the fire bet to make it a more reasonable wager for the player you will need to know how to do the calculation since one answer may not suffice for your purposes.
When I gave you the odds of making 6 different points of 1 in every 6,156 hands that does not mean you should receive a payout of 6,155 units for making 6 different points on the fire bet to make it an even wager. That would only be the case if the bet only paid for making 6 different points. But since it also pays for making 3 (in Pay Table C), 4 or 5 different points as well, you need to consider all the situations to calculate the HA.
You need to take a look at the chart CIII posted before in this thread and also the link for the wizard of odds’ website in that post.
I hope you can see from the chart that to calculate the House Advantage (HA) one needs to multiply the probability for each of the possible payouts times the payout to determine the return for each situation. Then by adding up all the possible expected returns one gets the overall HA.
"CIII" wrote: I just found Wizard of Odds Fire Bet Pay Tables at:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/Fire Bet — Pay Table C
[pre]Points Made Pays Probability Return
0 -1 0.593939 -0.593939
1 -1 0.260750 -0.26075
2 -1 0.101275 -0.101275
3 6 0.033434 0.200605
4 29 0.008798 0.255147
5 149 0.001640 0.244350
6 299 0.000162 0.048568
Total 1 -0.207295[/pre]The chart above reduced the number of significant digits for the fire bet probabilities to make the chart more presentable. Go to the link above and look at the chart following the chart for the 3 pay tables A, B and C to get the fire bet probabilities to as many significant digits as excel can handle.
I made up a spreadsheet and used that table in my spreadsheet. I will attempt to upload my spreadsheet but it may not do so from my private computer. I may need a dedicated server which I do not have to upload the attachment. If you can not use my spreadsheet you need to make one up yourself.
It appears to me that Pay Table C was designed to reduce the variance on the higher payouts for smaller casinos who may not be able to withstand a lucky streak by the players. If a lot of players were to hit the $5,000 payout in a lucky run the small casinos do not have the bankroll to overcome that kind of a hit. Large casinos with greater funding can overcome the loss over the long haul but smaller casinos may not.
In line with that I made a couple of changes to pay table C that seem to be consistent with that type of logic. If one were to change the payout for making 3 different points from 6 units to 9 units that would reduce the HA from -20.7% to -10.7%. That would be more in line with making the fire bet HA close to that for the hardways.
If in addition to that, one were to also change the payout for making 4 different points from 29 units to 49 units that would further reduce the HA down to -6.9%. Just to be clear this would involve changing the payout for 3 different points to 9 units AND the payout for 4 different points to 49 units. This still would not make it a great bet, but at least it would not be as bad as it is currently set up.
You can see these modifications in my spreadsheet. If you can see my spreadsheet you can play with it by changing the payouts to see how it varies the HA. You may come up with other options or the commission may want to use something different than the two option I have if they are amenable to doing anything.
Good luck and let me know how it goes.
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 22, 2012, 7:41 am
I need an accurate number of hands for 3, 4 ,5 points made. The rest of the info for the calculations I need is already here. I am not sure how to calculate the hands though. This should be the rest of the info I need.As far as small casinos goes they are allowed to offer only $1 on the fire bet rather than $5 or at this moment that is what I believe as I have not seen the rules on the firebet except for the payout. A single bet of $1 would limit their exposure.
I calculate that at the rate I play it may take 19.73 years to hit 6 numbers. Obviously it still may not hit within that or could hit multiple times. That is unknown. The primary object I have in mind is to not let the casinos pay that miserably small payout when it does hit. Nothing more and nothing less.
I have never played the firebet and may never play it. I am not doing this for me. I am just trying to help the people who do play it and if they hit they will never even know it was me who got it changed, if I do.
Skinny, I had no confusion as to which bet we are talking about and the other bet you brought up is as far as I know not on the slate for the Colorado Gaming Commission.
MrE, JBW, Stephen C, and Goldfinger and I have thousands of hands together in practice and (they may correct me if I am mistaken) I don’t believe we have ever hit all 6 points necessary for the fire bet although we have hit more than 6 points in a hand but have repeated the hits on numbers already hit. If my memory is correct Goldfinger has done it alone at home and I’m not sure about JBW. Even though I am nearing 80,000 documented practice rolls I have not hit the firebet for 6. We all have done 4 several times and 5 a few times.
I still have work to do in calculating if I can get the number of hands or the formula to find them myself.
OMC
Posted by: Skinny on July 22, 2012, 3:25 pm
Sure, it is easy to calculate the number of expected hands it would take for a random roller to hit each of the different points in the fire bet.Fire Bet — Expected Hands to hit different points
[pre]Points Made Hands
0 1.68
1 3.84
2 9.87
3 29.91
4 113.66
5 609.78
6 6156.32[/pre]The formula is simple. Divide the probability of making the number of different points into 1. The result is the expected number of hands to make that number of different points for a random roller.
The average number of rolls per hand for a random roller is 8.522551. If you multiply the number of hands by that number you will get the average number of rolls it would take for a random roller to make the number of different points.
For example, the probability of making 3 different points in a hand for a random roller is 0.0334342121788456.
1 / 0.0334342121788456 = 29.90948298
Therefore it will take approximately 30 hands for a random roller to make 3 different points.
29.90948298 X 8.522551 = 254.9050941
It would take approximately 255 rolls for a random roller to make 3 different points.
I just wanted to be sure you understood that you can not use the number of hands as the payout for each of the different payouts because the bet has multiple payouts.
If your objective is to increase the payouts when someone does hit the 6 different points you could try the following. The easy one is to get them to switch from Pay Table C to Pay Table A. The HA is still enormous which should please the casinos and the payouts are better for making 4, 5 or 6 different points. The gambler gives up the more frequent payout for making 3 different points. But almost no one making the fire bet is interested in winning 6 units, they all want the bigger payouts.
If they want to stick with Pay Table C, they could just change the payout for making 6 different points to 999 units and that would only reduce the HA down to -9.4%. Once again it makes it a more reasonable wager for the gambler and keeps the HA in the range of what it is for making the hardways (-9.09% and -11.11%) which should make the casinos OK with it.
I think you should be able to open the excel spreadsheet I posted above. If you play with the payouts you can see how it changes the HA and maybe you can come up with a pay table that the commission would find acceptable that meets with your objectives.
Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 22, 2012, 3:54 pm
Advanced math (like Skinny) is not my thing. From all I have read on this board and elsewhere it is truly one of the worst bets in the casino. So why bother with all the questions
!!!. Take it for what it is– a very bad bet, don’t bet it, use all of the GTC principles and move on.Just a few idle thoughts while I wait for a worker to finish some tile work at a house that Alligator Rose has for sale–he is 4 hours late now!!!!
Doc
Posted by: Guest on July 22, 2012, 4:06 pm
OneMoonCircles,I would never play the Fire Bet with Pay Table C, It just does not have any appeal and no opportunity to beat the casino. They have made Pay table C to pay off more on the lower number of hits(3 and 4) and little on the higher number of hits(5 and 6).
I have hit the Fire Bet for six points three times at a casino, and no, I did not have a Fire Bet on it on any of those times. I won’t let that happen again. I am an inconsistent shooter and have more off-axis tosses than on-axis tosses
You should also know, that I now hedge the Fire Bet with a Lay against the Point after having hit the fourth number, and having set the fifth number and then the sixth number! I don’t care if I hit the fifth and sixth point! I win either way!
This can be a straight Lay Bet or a Doe’y/Don’t Lay on the Don’t.
Posted by: Finisher on July 22, 2012, 4:26 pm
I think that if you bet it then the lay thing is great.Posted by: ACPA on July 22, 2012, 6:36 pm
whle Iwould do the lay doesn’t that bet then increase the house advantage?Every bet has a house advantage, other than the odds bet!
Noah
Posted by: Guest on July 22, 2012, 8:34 pm
APCA said: While I would do the lay, doesn’t that bet then increase the house advantage?
[list=square]After the fourth different point is made on a $1 Fire Bet:[*]You are guaranteed $25 for the 4 points made($24 return)[/*][*]You could make an additional $225 if the fifth point is made[/*][*]You would make only $24, if you 7 out.[/*]
[*]Make offsetting Do and a Don’t bet for $30[/*][*]Bet the 12 for $1 as insurance against the 12[/*][*]If a new Point is set ,on a 5X Odds table[/*][*]Lay the Don’t for $120 to $150[/*][*]Depending on the new point, you will guarantee yourself an extra $60, $75,or $80, $100, or $100, $125 if you seven out.[/*][*]You can plan your win for 1/2 of the expected, if you make the point.[/*][*]If you make your Point repeat this procedure at a higher level for the sixth point.[/*][*]Wash, rinse, repeat.[/*][/list]
This procedure only costs you the $1 insurance against the 12 at the five point level. If you make the point, the Lay loss is taken against the next higher possible win. A win win situationA straight Lay Bet against the Point is easier, but costs you more..
You need to plan your strategy at(or before) the four point level. You have to have the money to make the Do/Don’t and the Lay bets. Plan ahead!
Posted by: ACPA on July 22, 2012, 9:16 pm
Don’t know that I’ve thought this thru but if you make the 5th poInt then you have won less than you did with the normal Play so how does that impact the calculation? And I guess the same question if you do a lay on the sixth point.Am I missing something?
CIII your chart that you supplied could be modified to take into account those additional bets, but I haven’t tried to do that.
Noah
Posted by: Guest on July 22, 2012, 11:50 pm
ACPA said: Don’t know that I’ve thought this thru but if you make the 5th poInt then you have won less than you did with the normal Play so how does that impact the calculation? And I guess the same question if you do a lay on the sixth point.
Am I missing something?
CIII your chart that you supplied could be modified to take into account those additional bets, but I haven’t tried to do that.
Yes, ACPA, if you set and win the fifth Point, you lose the Lay on the Don’t, but win the 5th point $250 minus your Lay Bet on the Don’t. Now you are at he 6th point level and can repeat the process.
If you seven out you have won the $25 on the Fire Bet, plus your lay bet and your lay bet is returned to you plus the Do and Don’t cancel each other out. If 6 or 8 was the point and your lay on the Don’t was $120, you would win $100 plus the $25 for the fourth number, minus $1 Fire Bet and $1 insurance in the 12. A $123 win.
If the 5th point is the 6 or 8, and you Lay the Don’t for $120 you would win the $250 minus the $120 Lay, minus the $1 on the 12, minus the $1 on the Fire Bet for a total of $138. You have set up the Opportunity to continue with higher bets on the 6th point.
It the 6th point were the 6 or 8, you would make a $60 Do and a $60 Don’t, a $300 Lay, for a $1000 win minus your prior $120 lay loss, minus your $300 Lay, minus a total $3 insurance on the 12, minus your $1 Fire Bet. A win of $576.
Yes, I have made spreadsheets for all of the contingencies. I have not made the GTC charts as this message board will not accept HTML programs and the work around that has been offered me is quite cumbersome to program.
I’ll see what I can do, ‘cuz it’s difficult to explain with words.
[list=circle]Sorry Frank, I wasn’t going to post the prior message but thought that:[*]Conservative players won’t make the Fire Bet anyway[/*][*]Ploppies won’t understand the explanation[/*][*]Dom states that he would not hedge but go for the big win.[/*][/list]
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 23, 2012, 6:36 am
First off, DrC if you had read my posts carefully you’d see why. Convincing the commission to not let the casinos pay off at a terrible payout is my goal.Gentlemen, I am not advocating the firebet. I now have the ammo I need to present my argument. I will report back when a decision is made.
Thank you to all for your interest and help. I may need to come back for more later.
OneMoonCircles
Posted by: ACPA on July 23, 2012, 5:15 pm
OMC,Think it is great what you doin Coloroda. Kkep it up.
I’m curious if any others appear before the haming group advocating for the players or are a lone voice?
Noah
Posted by: Guest on July 23, 2012, 6:25 pm
What you are doing is interesting but essentially irrelevant to you as a smart player.Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 24, 2012, 5:06 am
ACPA,I am, as far as I know, the only craps player that goes on a regular basis. No one else has shown up.
SpielB, getting this done won’t help me but may help the gamblers. A project of love. It is hard enough to make a little profit and it consumes a lot of time so hopefully WE (craps players in general) get a little better deal by my efforts.
OMC
